Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[Natty]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Recoup?  That implies they're keeping him around to get back value.  Last year they would have been almost three wins to the better if they'd sent him off to Aruba to hang out with Sidney Ponson all year.  If he hits .200 with 17 homers and 200 Ks he'll likely be worth almost nothing while they're paying him $23M.  The money is gone, they're not getting any of it back, and unless he has a dramatic turn around they're not getting any production out of it. 

If he really is cooked, the Orioles gain nothing and lose a win or two from his replacement from having him hang around wishing he could still play Major League baseball.

I agree 100%. Ownership is desperately grasping for straws... or lost money. Would any other hitter with Davis type numbers  be in the league?

[interloper]

45 minutes ago, Natty said:

I agree 100%. Ownership is desperately grasping for straws... or lost money. Would any other hitter with Davis type numbers  be in the league?

If that hitter had a $161 million contract based on a couple of career years, yes.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

If that hitter had a $161 million contract based on a couple of career years, yes.

I firmly believe it would depend on the team and their situation. 

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I firmly believe it would depend on the team and their situation. 

I suppose if the Red Sox had given him this bad deal and the media was hounding them (as it would be up there), and they had a prospect at 1B, sure. 

I would say 95% of the time, that player would still be on the team's roster for at least part of this year.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I suppose if the Red Sox had given him this bad deal and the media was hounding them (as it would be up there), and they had a prospect at 1B, sure. 

I would say 95% of the time, that player would still be on the team's roster for at least part of this year.

You think that between 28 and 29 teams would keep Davis on the roster after last season?  Lot of money or not he kills any contender.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think that between 28 and 29 teams would keep Davis on the roster after last season?  Lot of money or not he kills any contender.

I dunno what to tell you. Yes, I do. I think most contenders he would ride the bench if necessary for half a season. They would exhaust every option like the O's are doing now. That's what organizations do! 

The Sox ate $48 with Pablo. No one has eaten $90. 

I'm not saying these teams don't release him this year, just that they give him a couple months. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I dunno what to tell you. Yes, I do. I think most contenders he would ride the bench if necessary for half a season. They would exhaust every option like the O's are doing now. That's what organizations do! 

The Sox ate $48 with Pablo. No one has eaten $90. 

I'm not saying these teams don't release him this year, just that they give him a couple months. 

The only reason no team has eaten 90M is because no one signed to a meagdeal has been this bad this fast.

I think folks harping on the sheer size of the deal are missing that important fact.  The Davis deal has no comps, the closest is Hamilton and the Angels ate that contract.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I firmly believe it would depend on the team and their situation. 

True.   A rich, contending team might cut him like the Bosox did with the Panda (less money, same principle).  

[jabba72]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The only reason no team has eaten 90M is because no one signed to a meagdeal has been this bad this fast.

I think folks harping on the sheer size of the deal are missing that important fact.  The Davis deal has no comps, the closest is Hamilton and the Angels ate that contract.

Pujols has got 3 years left on his deal after providing negative WAR the last three seasons. Davis has him beat with 4 years left, but it is an interesting comp. Miguel Cabrera has 5 years left on his deal after being a negative value hitter the last two seasons. 

[StatusDC]

This is an age-old debate but it pisses me off that Davis is crippling the team with his salary. As hard as it's going to be the league needs to work to adopt the NFL salary structure. No player should be guaranteed a full salary, especially being that they're a depreciating asset. Guarantee the first few years and the rest should be on a "prove it" basis.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Pujols has got 3 years left on his deal after providing negative WAR the last three seasons. Davis has him beat with 4 years left, but it is an interesting comp. Miguel Cabrera has 5 years left on his deal after being a negative value hitter the last two seasons. 

If you average fWAR and rWAR Pujols rates as above replacement last season.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Pujols has got 3 years left on his deal after providing negative WAR the last three seasons. Davis has him beat with 4 years left, but it is an interesting comp. Miguel Cabrera has 5 years left on his deal after being a negative value hitter the last two seasons. 

At least by rWAR, Pujols has been positive two of the last three years, and Cabrera was positive last year.   

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The only reason no team has eaten 90M is because no one signed to a meagdeal has been this bad this fast.

I think folks harping on the sheer size of the deal are missing that important fact.  The Davis deal has no comps, the closest is Hamilton and the Angels ate that contract.

The Phils kept Ryan Howard for five years when he was more than a win below replacement in four of the five, including three in a row.  He was a .219 hitting, sub-.300 OBP first baseman with negative baserunning and -10 defense.  And they let him do that for 1500 PAs after his last positive WAR season.  Not quite Davis, but Davis hasn't done this four years in five.

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Pujols has got 3 years left on his deal after providing negative WAR the last three seasons. Davis has him beat with 4 years left, but it is an interesting comp. Miguel Cabrera has 5 years left on his deal after being a negative value hitter the last two seasons. 

Cabrera was positive last year, and would have been slightly better than league average if he wasn't hurt and put up the same numbers as he did when he did play.

[WI O’s Fan]

92 million owed for 4 years.   Spring Training has not gone well.  I would tell Davis  to get more gloves and he would be an utility fielder 1b, 3b, rf/ lf & occasionally hitting as a dh.  No reason stealing at bats from others or 1b fielding opportunities from Mancini.  Sunk money anyway.