Would you offer Austin Hays the Scott Kingery deal?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Reasonable people can probably disagree on this one. The money isn't huge. His upside is pretty substantial. Elias et al are in a much better position to make that determination though.

Another way of thinking about this is to put Hays in a Red Sox uniform and say he turns into what you think is his most likely FV. Does he crack their World Series starting lineup? I'm not saying he doesn't. I'm just not sure he does. Is that the guy we want to lock up early?

I think he's going to be a ~3 win player.  I'd be fine with that on a playoff team.

Of course one of the underused advantages of signing a player to this type of contract is that if he ends up as even a 2 win guy you have a lot of excessive value if you want to flip him.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

In a world where Tillman and Rasmus get 3M a year I don't see where 4M a year for Hays is too much of a gamble.

If Elias and Sig thinks Hays is worth it, I’ll reconsider. Also I never would have paid Tillman or Rasmussen.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Elias and Sig thinks Hays is worth it, I’ll reconsider. Also I never would have paid Tillman or Rasmussen.

I wouldn't of either, I'm just pointing out how little 4M a year is in the grand scheme of things.  That's third maybe fourth guy out of the pen money.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he's going to be a ~3 win player.  I'd be fine with that on a playoff team.

Of course one of the underused advantages of signing a player to this type of contract is that if he ends up as even a 2 win guy you have a lot of excessive value if you want to flip him.

I agree with the thinking, but am not to the point where I have high confidence in the FV of Hays. I think his floor is much lower than what you're allowing for, and while I hate to say it, I think the chances of him being closer to that floor are too good for a long term commitment right now.

[Frobby]

I would not give Hays the Kingery deal just yet.     I like the idea of locking up guys early, but I’d still like to see some success as a major leaguer first, recognizing that waiting a little might cause the price to go up some.    Assuming Hays makes it to the majors this year and adjusts well, I’d look at a deal then rather than now.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree with the thinking, but am not to the point where I have high confidence in the FV of Hays. I think his floor is much lower than what you're allowing for, and while I hate to say it, I think the chances of him being closer to that floor are too good for a long term commitment right now.

The looming CBA fight is making me more willing to accept risk.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't of either, I'm just pointing out how little 4M a year is in the grand scheme of things.  That's third maybe fourth guy out of the pen money.

Yeah, but it’s misleading.   Really you’re paying him $7 mm+ for his three arb years — as you put it, a little more than Schoop got.    

 

 

 

 

 

[esmd]

I wouldn't offer any player that hadn't proven themselves in the majors that deal.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

I wouldn't offer any player that hadn't proven themselves in the majors that deal.

Would any player that has proven themselves in the majors accept that deal?

[LookinUp]

Are you assuming that FA is happening sooner under the next CBA? If so, I think that does suggest that teams should try to lock top guys up even more than they do now. 

Either way, I think the O's have a little time to make that decision. Part of the OP reflected that the Phillies could play the guy without service time issues. I'm not THAT motivated by service time with Hays at this point in his development or at this point in our rebuild. 

[esmd]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Would any player that has proven themselves in the majors accept that deal?

I guess that would depend on the level of their performance.  If it's Jonathan Schoop after his 2015 or 2016 season, quite possibly.  If it's Mike Trout after his 2nd or 3rd year, no.  I'm all for extending guys early and buying out arbitration years and some years of FA.  But I'm not giving a guy a deal like that who's never played or had any success in the majors.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

I guess that would depend on the level of their performance.  If it's Jonathan Schoop after his 2015 or 2016 season, quite possibly.  If it's Mike Trout after his 2nd or 3rd year, no.  I'm all for extending guys early and buying out arbitration years and some years of FA.  But I'm not giving a guy a deal like that who's never played or had any success in the majors.

I'm assuming that proving oneself means playing at a certain level.  Schoop was still a below average player in 2015, does that count as having proven himself?  I certainly don't think post 2016 Schoop signs that deal.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, esmd said:

I guess that would depend on the level of their performance.  If it's Jonathan Schoop after his 2015 or 2016 season, quite possibly.  If it's Mike Trout after his 2nd or 3rd year, no.  I'm all for extending guys early and buying out arbitration years and some years of FA.  But I'm not giving a guy a deal like that who's never played or had any success in the majors.

You wouldn't have paid Wieters a Longoria-like contract? The O's should have, in hindsight, right?

If we pick Rutschman, I'm paying him the day he reaches the majors even knowing that he just got a fat signing bonus.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Are you assuming that FA is happening sooner under the next CBA? If so, I think that does suggest that teams should try to lock top guys up even more than they do now. 

Either way, I think the O's have a little time to make that decision. Part of the OP reflected that the Phillies could play the guy without service time issues. I'm not THAT motivated by service time with Hays at this point in his development or at this point in our rebuild. 

I'm expecting changes to minimum compensation, arbitration and free agency.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm expecting changes to minimal compensation, arbitration and free agency.

Either way, you're operating with players who have a sense of what changes are coming too. That goes into the equation. Right now Hays would take that deal. A year from now he may not. You're saying the risk is worth it. I'm saying I'd rather wait the year.