Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[Aglets]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So based on that Mountcastle should annually OPS over 1.000 in the majors.  Makes sense.

Ahem.

"All he did was point out that Ryan is younger than Trey was at AAA and is hitting better.   Is that incorrect?"

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, atomic said:

I would be upset if he ended up hitting like Trey Mancini.  He is 2 years younger than Trey was at AAA and he is hitting better.  With much more power and higher average.

I personally think Mancini is his high-floor as a hitter, but I wouldn't be too upset if he ends up a .300, 30 guy which is what Mancini is on pace for. 

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So based on that Mountcastle should annually OPS over 1.000 in the majors.  Makes sense.

 A 22 year old isn't fully developed physically.  He will gain a lot of strength and his power numbers should go up.  Are you new to baseball?

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fair enough. I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't look forward to being reminded of it.

Haha, you gotta stick with your opinion and reap the rewards or taking the ragging that will go on if you miss. I'm sure I will take my share if Sisco keeps hitting. His turn around is quite remarkable.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Haha, you gotta stick with your opinion and reap the rewards or taking the ragging that will go on if you miss. I'm sure I will take my share if Sisco keeps hitting. His turn around is quite remarkable.

Yep, I've noticed a 5000% increase in the use of the term meh the past few weeks.

[atomic]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I personally think Mancini is his high-floor as a hitter, but I wouldn't be too upset if he ends up a .300, 30 guy which is what Mancini is on pace for. 

But this is Mancini's first season with these numbers and he is 27. I would be happy with consistent numbers like that from Mountcastle.   But certainly not Mancini's 2018 season. 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Mountcastle, age 22.  11 walks and 77 strikeouts in 75 games.  You always point out numbers in A ball and say a hitter is not a prospect based on bad plate discipline numbers. How do you feel about 11:77 in AAA?

At the very least, he needs another year in AAA. Of course, he appears to think there's no problem as long as he's putting up "numbers".    His career numbers in the minors are more than 4 strikeouts per 1 walk.  Trumbo wasn't that bad. Adam Jones wasn't near that bad.  At age 22, Sisco had 32 walks and 96 k's in 344 AB's which was bad but he had a history of decent plate discipline.   

Mountcastle has no such history.  His 77 strikeouts are even worsened by the fact that he doesn't work the count at all.   ML pitchers will exploit that to the max.  Can he improve? Sure?  Is the current version on a path to success?  No way.

I have mixed feelings about this.   First of all, there’s still half a season to play, so I’d rather wait until this year is over before proclaiming that he needs another year in AAA.     Second, Mountcastle is producing decently despite his obvious flaws, and I’m not sure if major league pitchers will be able to exploit him to the extent you think, though I do think that it’s possible you’re right.   

[ChuckS]

There aren't too many other current major leaguers with his batting profile.

Tim Anderson (CWS) .317 .342 .491 (.832) 7 BB's and 59 K's in 241 at bats.  Very Mountcastle-ish. 

Yoan Moncada - also on the CWS has 21 BB's and 88 K's in 286 at bats.  .304 .357 .528 .885.  That's probably a best case scenario for RM.  

If you look at David Dahl's (COL) away splits, he's putting up a .768 OPS with a terrible 7:1 K to BB ratio.  

So it's possible to have some success with a terrible walk rate, but the upside is going to be limited unless he can start walking a little more and/or striking out a little less. 

 

 

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

19 hours ago, ChuckS said:

There aren't too many other current major leaguers with his batting profile.

Tim Anderson (CWS) .317 .342 .491 (.832) 7 BB's and 59 K's in 241 at bats.  Very Mountcastle-ish. 

Yoan Moncada - also on the CWS has 21 BB's and 88 K's in 286 at bats.  .304 .357 .528 .885.  That's probably a best case scenario for RM.  

If you look at David Dahl's (COL) away splits, he's putting up a .768 OPS with a terrible 7:1 K to BB ratio.  

So it's possible to have some success with a terrible walk rate, but the upside is going to be limited unless he can start walking a little more and/or striking out a little less. 

 

 

 

 

This is my worry with Mountcastle.  There are a very few players who can be productive at the major league level striking out seven times for each walk.  Many more who can't.  Mancini had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio in the minors.  Mountcastle is 4:1 or worse, and it's not improving.  

It is a positive that he's fairly young. He's 22.  That's the most important thing in a prospect. I'm reasonably confident he'll make some significant strides by the time Mancini hit AAA (24).  

But... lack of plate discipline can derail players.  Cory Snyder had Mountcastle's plate discipline and power (actually better plate discipline in the minors), was in the majors at 23, was a better fielder with an epic arm, and ended up with a fairly disappointing career.  When you have 17 walks you have to hit .290 or your OBP is going to be a drag.  Jonathan Schoop is a another example - when he hits .230 he's an out-making machine.

I hope Mountcastle grows some discipline, or has a little Vlad in him.

[Moose Milligan]

Looking forward to when the people who've been anxiously awaiting Mountcastle start to sour when they realize he's just as flawed as the current flawed player's they're fed up with.  

Sounds like he does damage when he makes contact but the lack of discipline is really worrisome.  Not to mention the defense. 

But...PROSPECT STATUSSSSSSSS

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Looking forward to when the people who've been anxiously awaiting Mountcastle start to sour when they realize he's just as flawed as the current flawed player's they're fed up with.  

Sounds like he does damage when he makes contact but the lack of discipline is really worrisome.  Not to mention the defense. 

But...PROSPECT STATUSSSSSSSS

Funny how you keep saying that.  I don't hear anyone else saying that. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Funny how you keep saying that.  I don't hear anyone else saying that. 

 

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

[atomic]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

Mountcastle was rated 51 best prospect by baseball prospectus before the season.  He is also rated in top 100 by Baseball America and Baseball Pipline. It isn't like we are just reaching for anyone.  He is 22 and hit at every level.   If he walked 50 times this year and his other stats were the same he would be a top 20 prospect.  

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

  If he walked 50 times this year and his other stats were the same he would be a top 20 prospect.  

Yeah.  But he doesn't, so he's not.

[atomic]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah.  But he doesn't, so he's not.

MLB Pipeline new list has him at #55 overall and #1 first baseman prospect in all of baseball.