Mancini Trade Package

[Philip]

16 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Hard to get a fair return when the common wisdom out there has for years convinced most all the decision makers that Trey is "limited", "not good" "liability"  "dime a dozen" etc..lol.   That is really why I think he will end up staying...that Elias and Hyde believe like I do...i.e. that he is actually more valuable than the analyses would suggest but that the market right at the moment is not going to move off the common wisdom as it has labelled Trey.  

When Trey is tearing it up at an MVP type level in the summer of 2020, then maybe a top contender's first baseman breaks a leg.....that is the only scenario that produces a fair return, imho.    Otherwise we are going to get less than fair if he is traded pretty much under any other scenario.   Although Elias may well just decide to push the button anyway and move on and just take "OK" return rather than a  "fair"  return despite his protestations to the contrary in public (which any GM would say).  

I agree that he will probably end up staying, however, if the Rockies are interested in Severino, and they need a first baseman, well, in Colorado, Trey could hit 100 home Runs.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

I agree that he will probably end up staying, however, if the Rockies are interested in Severino, and they need a first baseman, well, in Colorado, Trey could hit 100 home Runs.

Over the remaining three years that he is under team control?  Very possible.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Over the remaining three years that he is under team control?  Very possible.

Matbe 120 in 3 years?

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Considering he just hit 35 in what was likely a career year, I'd say not.  He's a good hitter who hit 35 last year. I think he's good but I expect a regression from last years numbers. 

Trey does not concur with your assessment. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well, he won't regress if he gets traded to Colorado.  There he probably will hit .333 with 45 Homer's per year for 3 years.

Last year no Rockies starter hit .333 or hit 45 HR.

 

 

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well, he won't regress if he gets traded to Colorado.  There he probably will hit .333 with 45 Homer's per year for 3 years.

I think that him being in Colorado is where the 120 homers over 3 years comment was speculated.  I think he will hit 35-40 wherever but I think he will reduce Ks, increase walks, increase doubles, and increase OPS significantly..  But mine is a minority opinion on this board. 

[Philip]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Considering he just hit 35 in what was likely a career year, I'd say not.  He's a good hitter who hit 35 last year. I think he's good but I expect a regression from last years numbers. 

Well consider half his games at Coors field: how many warning track outs at Camden would have gotten enough help from the air to go out? There’s probably concrete information that could exactly answer that question.

But yes there was a lot of hyperbole in the comment.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well consider half his games at Coors field: how many warning track outs at Camden would have gotten enough help from the air to go out? There’s probably concrete information that could exactly answer that question.

But yes there was a lot of hyperbole in the comment.

Park Factors 2019:  HR

Coors Field- 1.266

OPACY- 1.262

 

I'm going with 0.

 

[Scalious]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Well consider half his games at Coors field: how many warning track outs at Camden would have gotten enough help from the air to go out? There’s probably concrete information that could exactly answer that question.

But yes there was a lot of hyperbole in the comment.

Coors field is bigger then Camden. Coors is the #1 hitters park because it favors Home Runs AND Batting Average.  Trey would likely maintain a higher BA then any sort of noteable HR increase.

[ThomasTomasz]

I believe it was ESPN that ran an article as a winter meeting primer, where they put one move for each team to make.  The Orioles move was trading Mancini to the Athletics for AJ Puk and Franklyn Barreto.  I could easily get behind a package similar to that- a top 50 overall prospect, and a former top prospect who may just need consistent playing time or a change of scenery.  If we trade Mancini, I really want to see a quality piece- particularity a pitcher who is close- to headline the return.  

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t know if there’s a enough demand to trade Mancini now. We all pretty much figured that a team with a bigger ballpark would target Bundy. I guess Mancini is a cheaper alternative to Castellanos. So whatever teams are in on Castellanos would be in on Mancini. 

I think a lot of teams that need a RH corner bat will just wait till the deadline and get a rental. 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Considering he just hit 35 in what was likely a career year, I'd say not.  He's a good hitter who hit 35 last year. I think he's good but I expect a regression from last years numbers. 

I expect the whole league to regress as they dial back the juiced ball.  

[DrungoHazewood]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I expect the whole league to regress as they dial back the juiced ball.  

 But how much?  Do they really have this thing down to a science, or are they guessing and hoping on effects?  I'd like to see a 1988, where they over-corrected and ended up with homers falling more than 25% and runs down from 4.7 to 4.1.

[NCRaven]

I still think the Twins are a team to target in a Mancini trade.  They’ve moved on from Cron and have a couple of shortstop prospects that we could target.

[wildbillhiccup]

8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I still think the Twins are a team to target in a Mancini trade.  They’ve moved on from Cron and have a couple of shortstop prospects that we could target.

I'm not sure the Twins would feel comfortable taking on Mancini with Cruz already on their roster. From everything I've read the seem to be more focused on pitching this off season because after Berrios and Odorizzi they basically have no one. I wouldn't be surprised if the tried to save some money at 1B and went with a platoon of Gonzalez and Astudillo.