2019 11th round pick (318): Andrew Daschbach - CI - (JR) Stanford

[AceKing]

FWIW, I think this guy not signing would constitute a big failure of the FO.  Just because he was the first pick of Day 3 and we had overnight that day to cherrypick the best draft pick of every remaining player.

 

i would think that process would include their signability.

 

They likely thought he would be an Oriole.

[jcarm]

8 hours ago, AceKing said:

FWIW, I think this guy not signing would constitute a big failure of the FO.  Just because he was the first pick of Day 3 and we had overnight that day to cherrypick the best draft pick of every remaining player.

 

i would think that process would include their signability.

 

They likely thought he would be an Oriole.

The failure to sign and  11th round pick is a big failure? Maybe he lasted until the 11th round because had not made up his mind on what to do? Maybe the Orioles thought the risk was worth taking in the 11th round? Maybe he changed his mind?

[weams]

7 minutes ago, jcarm said:

The failure to sign and  11th round pick is a big failure? Maybe he lasted until the 11th round because had not made up his mind on what to do? Maybe the Orioles thought the risk was worth taking in the 11th round? Maybe he changed his mind?

I'm saying that he signs with the Orioles. 

[weams]

8 hours ago, AceKing said:

FWIW, I think this guy not signing would constitute a big failure of the FO.  Just because he was the first pick of Day 3 and we had overnight that day to cherrypick the best draft pick of every remaining player.

 

i would think that process would include their signability.

 

They likely thought he would be an Oriole.

The first pick in round 11 is an overslot sign to replace one of the top ten should they not agree. Certainly not a failure if they do not sign. 

[jcarm]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I'm saying that he signs with the Orioles. 

So am I.

[weams]

...eighth rounder Trey Mancini ($151,900),

[LookinUp]

On 6/26/2019 at 5:56 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Dude can mash. I don’t care if he’s just a 1B. 

What is the scouting report on this guy? It has been implied several places by different people that his bat has legit potential. On the other hand, I feel like Luke (maybe??) thinks he's more likely a good org guy without really profiling as a ML bat. 

I don't mean it as a direct comp, but does Daschbach profile as a Christain Walker/Trey Mancini type who doesn't have a ton of positional value but whose bat could carry him to the majors anyway? If so, I'll take that in the 11th round any day of the week.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

What is the scouting report on this guy? It has been implied several places by different people that his bat has legit potential. On the other hand, I feel like Luke (maybe??) thinks he's more likely a good org guy without really profiling as a ML bat. 

I don't mean it as a direct comp, but does Daschbach profile as a Christain Walker/Trey Mancini type who doesn't have a ton of positional value but whose bat could carry him to the majors anyway? If so, I'll take that in the 11th round any day of the week.

I didn’t say he was an org guy, just that he’s org depth at a position of weakness within the system. He’s a prospect, maybe a 35+ or 40 grade if he can handle an OF corner.

He’s got a ton of power and has performed in a top conference, the swing is muscled and linear though and he’ll need to make adjustments. 

[weams]

8 hours ago, LookinUp said:

What is the scouting report on this guy? It has been implied several places by different people that his bat has legit potential. On the other hand, I feel like Luke (maybe??) thinks he's more likely a good org guy without really profiling as a ML bat. 

I don't mean it as a direct comp, but does Daschbach profile as a Christain Walker/Trey Mancini type who doesn't have a ton of positional value but whose bat could carry him to the majors anyway? If so, I'll take that in the 11th round any day of the week.

Daschbach would love to become either Christian or Trey. 

[sportsfan8703]

Take a look at all of the 1B drafted in this year’s draft,

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/all/position/first-basemen

Other than the top 3 guys, mostly all the NCAA guys signed between 10k - 125k. I guess what Dashbach could hope for is the Tristan English(GA Tech)scenario, but that guy can throw 92-94 from the mound, with a slider. He also profiles in RF. English only got 500k as a Sr. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Take a look at all of the 1B drafted in this year’s draft,

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/all/position/first-basemen

Other than the top 3 guys, mostly all the NCAA guys signed between 10k - 125k. I guess what Dashbach could hope for is the Tristan English(GA Tech)scenario, but that guy can throw 92-94 from the mound, with a slider. He also profiles in RF. English only got 500k as a Sr. 

Bryce Ball, also a junior, similar performance, big power, weaker conference, lessor track record with wood, also some swing issues (not the same ones) got 197.5k in the 24th round. I'd imagine that's the closest comp for Daschbach, with Daschbach likely to get more. 

[LookinUp]

23 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I didn’t say he was an org guy, just that he’s org depth at a position of weakness within the system. He’s a prospect, maybe a 35+ or 40 grade if he can handle an OF corner.

He’s got a ton of power and has performed in a top conference, the swing is muscled and linear though and he’ll need to make adjustments. 

So I went back and looked at the scouting scale. It essentially says a guy with this grade profiles as a bench or up/down guy, both of which are below a utility player. 

I guess what I don't get is how much projection we need to have to pay this guy $200-$300k. Technically, I get that anything above 0.0 WAR is doing decent from an an 11 round draft pick perspective. However, if I'm the Owner, I don't want to pay that if I don't have some scout or analytic telling me there's a decent chance that, with a few tweaks, he can be a 50-60 player. I mean, is there any chance this guy becomes a Steve Pearce? Are those odds infinitesimal, or are they more like a 5-10% chance of happening? If it's the latter, I understand paying the money. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

So I went back and looked at the scouting scale. It essentially says a guy with this grade profiles as a bench or up/down guy, both of which are below a utility player. 

I guess what I don't get is how much projection we need to have to pay this guy $200-$300k. Technically, I get that anything above 0.0 WAR is doing decent from an an 11 round draft pick perspective. However, if I'm the Owner, I don't want to pay that if I don't have some scout or analytic telling me there's a decent chance that, with a few tweaks, he can be a 50-60 player. I mean, is there any chance this guy becomes a Steve Pearce? Are those odds infinitesimal, or are they more like a 5-10% chance of happening? If it's the latter, I understand paying the money. 

There is a range of potential outcomes for every prospect and a likelihood of reaching each of those outcomes. Projecting those isn't an exact science, but for a player who isn't in AA/AAA, their grade is going to be lower than their ceiling, in some cases significantly lower for particularly risky prospects.

Yes Daschbach has a chance to be an everyday player (50 grade), that type of player is worth 28M in surplus value according to Fangraphs valuation. So by that logic, if you think he has a 10% chance of being that type of player and a greater chance of being a lessor but still useful MLB guy, he'd be well worth a 300k bonus. 

[AJHoesnkakes]

He has signed per Jim Callis...

[Obando]

25 minutes ago, AJHoesnkakes said:

He has signed per Jim Callis...

Callis said he signed for $250k.  I’m glad they got this one done.  Now just waiting to see what Houston Roth got paid, and if Dan Hammer ended up signing or not.