2008 Orioles MVP using WPA

[Enjoy Terror]

For those unfamiliar with Win Probability Added:

"WPA ... is pretty much the perfect stat to determine things like "MVP" or "Player of the game" or anything like that.

WPA stands for Win Probability Added. Essentially, consider the following: at the beginning of the game, each team has a 50.0% chance of winning. Let's say (rhetorically, since I don't have the numbers in front of me), when a road team hits a leadoff home run, they go on to win 55.0% of the time (this has been calculated by looking at a great number of past games). Then, in that case, the batter who hit the home run would be credited with .050 WPA. Likewise, the pitcher who let up the home run would be deducted an equal amount. This is added up on every play for the entire game, until it ends.

When it ends, the winning team's players' WPAs sum up to .500, and the losing team's players' WPAs sum up to -.500. Whoever has the highest WPA did the most to help their team win that game.

Here's the one for the ASG:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-all-star-win-probability

Drew had a WPA of .583, meaning he played well enough to single-handedly win the game. Second highest by anyone was Sherrill @ .460.

Michael Young, on the other hand, had a WPA of .072, meaning he did almost nothing. Still, in his defense, that was the second highest WPA of any AL offensive player."

Anyhow, I was reading Schmuck's blog about naming an Oriole's MVP, and based on what Fangraphs says about this season, there shouldn't really be any speculation as to who adds value on this team the most.

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Orioles&season=2008

1. RP Jim Johnson

2. DH Aubrey Huff

3. SP Jeremy Guthrie

4. 2B Brian Roberts

5. 3B Melvin Mora

6. RF Nick Markakis

The rest of them sort of drop off after that.

[Old#5fan]

For those unfamiliar with Win Probability Added:

"WPA ... is pretty much the perfect stat to determine things like "MVP" or "Player of the game" or anything like that.

WPA stands for Win Probability Added. Essentially, consider the following: at the beginning of the game, each team has a 50.0% chance of winning. Let's say (rhetorically, since I don't have the numbers in front of me), when a road team hits a leadoff home run, they go on to win 55.0% of the time (this has been calculated by looking at a great number of past games). Then, in that case, the batter who hit the home run would be credited with .050 WPA. Likewise, the pitcher who let up the home run would be deducted an equal amount. This is added up on every play for the entire game, until it ends.

When it ends, the winning team's players' WPAs sum up to .500, and the losing team's players' WPAs sum up to -.500. Whoever has the highest WPA did the most to help their team win that game.

Here's the one for the ASG:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-all-star-win-probability

Drew had a WPA of .583, meaning he played well enough to single-handedly win the game. Second highest by anyone was Sherrill @ .460.

Michael Young, on the other hand, had a WPA of .072, meaning he did almost nothing. Still, in his defense, that was the second highest WPA of any AL offensive player."

Anyhow, I was reading Schmuck's blog about naming an Oriole's MVP, and based on what Fangraphs says about this season, there shouldn't really be any speculation as to who adds value on this team the most.

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Orioles&season=2008

1. RP Jim Johnson

2. DH Aubrey Huff

3. SP Jeremy Guthrie

4. 2B Brian Roberts

5. 3B Melvin Mora

6. RF Nick Markakis

The rest of them sort of drop off after that.

This stat measurement or data indicator seems accurate to me, in that it supports my believe that Nick Markakis is very overated by many here. I truly believe those five were more important in winning games this season than Nick.

[furryburres]

This stat measurement or data indicator seems accurate to me, in that it supports my believe that Nick Markakis is very overated by many here. I truly believe those five were more important in winning games this season than Nick.

We may or may not overrate him, but if he is overrated, it's not for the reasons you've repeatedly stated.

[lovetoaster]

This stat measurement or data indicator seems accurate to me, in that it supports my believe that Nick Markakis is very overated by many here. I truly believe those five were more important in winning games this season than Nick.

And here we go...

[Old#5fan]

We may or may not overrate him, but if he is overrated, it's not for the reasons you've repeatedly stated.

Thats what you think. He walks too much instead of swinging the bat and also needs to come through more often with RISP and/or produce game winning rbi. He's not impressive at either. I would rather see Mora up in those situations.

[Fan4Life]

This stat measurement or data indicator seems accurate to me, in that it supports my believe that Nick Markakis is very overated by many here. I truly believe those five were more important in winning games this season than Nick.

And here we go...

I think there is "some" truth to this. But we are Homers... so it isn't ground breaking information. The recent thread about GM's, Scouts, etc picking 5 guys to start a team with and none of them chose Nick, sounded surprised about that. Nick "might" be a top 10 player, but certainly isnt a top 5 player in baseball.

[Guest Sailor Jerry]

Thats what you think. He walks too much instead of swinging the bat and also needs to come through more often with RISP and/or produce game winning rbi. He's not impressive at either. I would rather see Mora up in those situations.

So you're complaining that he doesn't make outs as often as some of the other guys on the team? Really? Hayzues on a popsicle stick that may be the dumbest argument made on this site today.

[tywright]

I think there is "some" truth to this. But we are Homers... so it isn't ground breaking information. The recent thread about GM's, Scouts, etc picking 5 guys to start a team with and none of them chose Nick, sounded surprised about that. Nick "might" be a top 10 player, but certainly isnt a top 5 player in baseball.

Where's that thread?

[lovetoaster]

I think there is "some" truth to this. But we are Homers... so it isn't ground breaking information. The recent thread about GM's, Scouts, etc picking 5 guys to start a team with and none of them chose Nick, sounded surprised about that. Nick "might" be a top 10 player, but certainly isnt a top 5 player in baseball.

Well, I agree with you, but there were a lot of players on that list that received votes that did not belong. It was not about being in the top five, it was about receiving any votes at all. There were probably 50 players on the list that received votes, and Nick did not receive any. I couldn't care less about the poll, it means nothing. But to look at that and essentially say that Nick is not one of the top 50 or so young players in baseball is crazy, in my opinion.

[lovetoaster]

Where's that thread?

The poll was in Sports Illustrated about a month ago, and I remember the thread, but I can't find it.

[tywright]

Thats what you think. He walks too much instead of swinging the bat and also needs to come through more often with RISP and/or produce game winning rbi. He's not impressive at either. I would rather see Mora up in those situations.

Markakis...he's hitting .309 and has a .973OPS with RISP. Markakis realizes he has players hitting behind him that can also drive in runs. He works counts and if he is walked...then he adds a potential run on the basepath. There's nothing wrong with that, especially since he doesn't clog the basepaths.

Mora is having an insane year with RISP (.381Ba and 1.005 OPS), but he's been very inconsistent over the years. Last year he hit .269 with RISP, after hitting .309 in 2006. And in 2005 he hit .255 w/ RISP after hitting .323 during his huge 2004 year.

[Life Long O Fan]

needs to come through more often with RISP

Hasn't he hit pretty well with runners in scoring position this year?

I just checked on ESPN.com

Link

[Three Run Homer]

This stat measurement or data indicator seems accurate to me, in that it supports my believe that Nick Markakis is very overated by many here. I truly believe those five were more important in winning games this season than Nick.

The fact that Nick ranks behind Mora isn't a knock on Markakis. It's just an indication that Mora has done extremely well with RISP this season. Markakis' WPA is good, as are his other statistics.

WPA is worthwhile because it's a good stat for describing who contributed to actual wins and losses in a particular season. But it has less predictive value for player performance in future seasons than traditional statistics like OPS, because WPA includes the effect of clutch performance, which has been shown by many studies to be uncorrelated across seasons.

In other words, Melvin Mora has a high WPA this year despite having pedestrian overall numbers, because it just so happens that he's gotten lots of clutch hits. Next season, he probably won't.

[lovetoaster]

I would rather see Mora up in those situations.

In the last two weeks, yes, I think most of us would. But I doubt you said that in June.

[Enjoy Terror]

The fact that Nick ranks behind Mora isn't a knock on Markakis. It's just an indication that Mora has done extremely well with RISP this season. Markakis' WPA is good, as are his other statistics.

WPA is worthwhile because it's a good stat for describing who contributed to actual wins and losses in a particular season. But it has less predictive value for player performance in future seasons than traditional statistics like OPS, because WPA includes the effect of clutch performance, which has been shown by many studies to be uncorrelated across seasons.

In other words, Melvin Mora has a high WPA this year despite having pedestrian overall numbers, because it just so happens that he's gotten lots of clutch hits. Next season, he probably won't.

Right, but this thread is about a 2008 MVP. These statistics are not, and I am not making claims about Mora's future value. This is about right now. Mora comes in and hits for clutch moreso than Markakis. It's not like Markakis is a slouch, his WPA numbers are high up there too, but when it comes to winning games in 2008, Mora has played more parts in them than Markakis, that's all.