2008 Orioles MVP using WPA

[longflyball]

Thats what you think. He walks too much instead of swinging the bat and also needs to come through more often with RISP and/or produce game winning rbi. He's not impressive at either. I would rather see Mora up in those situations.

Welcome to the 21st Century! Walks = runs scored. Batting average w/RISP = meaningless.

[Mackus]

In terms of figuring out who has been the most valuable player this season, that is a great stat. Basically a version of WXRL that applies to every player. I'm not really sure how it takes defense/errors into account though. Does it reward an offensive player and penalize a pitcher whenever a fielder makes an error?

But for its purpose, determining who has had the biggest impact on a game or season, it seems like a great stat. I doubt its terrible useful at anything predictive, as its basically a summation of batters/pitchers performance during "clutch" or high leverage situations.

So while I won't argue at all that Johnson and Huff have probably been our MVPs this year, I don't think they will repeat their performances (especially huff) or that Nick Markakis is the 6th best player on the team. Markakis is the best player on the team, without doubt, IMO. His contributions have just come at such a time that they weren't as valuable this season as someone like Mora, who has seemed to come through in the clutch very often. I don't think clutchness is a repeatable skill, so I don't think these trends will neccesarily carry over to next season.

[Mackus]

Welcome to the 21st Century! Walks = runs scored. Batting average w/RISP = meaningless.

Don't waste your time and energy.

[Maverick2143]

For those unfamiliar with Win Probability Added:

"WPA ... is pretty much the perfect stat to determine things like "MVP" or "Player of the game" or anything like that.

WPA stands for Win Probability Added. Essentially, consider the following: at the beginning of the game, each team has a 50.0% chance of winning. Let's say (rhetorically, since I don't have the numbers in front of me), when a road team hits a leadoff home run, they go on to win 55.0% of the time (this has been calculated by looking at a great number of past games). Then, in that case, the batter who hit the home run would be credited with .050 WPA. Likewise, the pitcher who let up the home run would be deducted an equal amount. This is added up on every play for the entire game, until it ends.

When it ends, the winning team's players' WPAs sum up to .500, and the losing team's players' WPAs sum up to -.500. Whoever has the highest WPA did the most to help their team win that game.

Here's the one for the ASG:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-all-star-win-probability

Drew had a WPA of .583, meaning he played well enough to single-handedly win the game. Second highest by anyone was Sherrill @ .460.

Michael Young, on the other hand, had a WPA of .072, meaning he did almost nothing. Still, in his defense, that was the second highest WPA of any AL offensive player."

Anyhow, I was reading Schmuck's blog about naming an Oriole's MVP, and based on what Fangraphs says about this season, there shouldn't really be any speculation as to who adds value on this team the most.

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Orioles&season=2008

1. RP Jim Johnson

2. DH Aubrey Huff

3. SP Jeremy Guthrie

4. 2B Brian Roberts

5. 3B Melvin Mora

6. RF Nick Markakis

The rest of them sort of drop off after that.

"You must spread some reputation around before giving it to Enjoy Terror again"

Interesting stuff and something I have never seen before.

[NewMarketSean]

He walks too much instead of swinging the bat

:laughlol: :scratchchinhmm: :laughlol: :eektf:

Characters.

[Old#5fan]

I think there is "some" truth to this. But we are Homers... so it isn't ground breaking information. The recent thread about GM's, Scouts, etc picking 5 guys to start a team with and none of them chose Nick, sounded surprised about that. Nick "might" be a top 10 player, but certainly isnt a top 5 player in baseball.

Top 5 player in baseball?[I]:laughlol::rofl:[/i] The analysis on this thread just shows he's not even in the top five on the ORIOLES this year. LOL on that one. I doubt if Markakis would make the top 50 in a list of all Major League Players. His 17 homers, 298 average and 71 rb's isn't all that. More like Jeff Conine in his prime as far as an impact on a team winning. The analysis just proves it emphatically, so don't get angry at me for it!

[Moose Milligan]

Old#5Fan, as I've explained to you before:The entire object of a plate appearance is to get on base. Via hit, walk, hit by pitch or catchers interference, getting on base is the ultimate goal. Getting on base is good. Walks are good. Nick is a good player.

[Fan4Life]

Top 5 player in:laughlol: The analyis on this thread just shows he's not even in the top five on the ORIOLES this year. LOL on that one. I doubt if Markakis would make the top 50 in a list of all Major League Players. His 17 homers, 298 average and 71 rb's isn't all that.

Do you have any sisters you adjatated as a child? If so, I'm sure you were quite good at it... it takes one (me) to know one.

[Stacey]

Old#5Fan, as I've explained to you before:The entire object of a plate appearance is to get on base. Via hit, walk, hit by pitch or catchers interference, getting on base is the ultimate goal. Getting on base is good. Walks are good. Nick is a good player.

I've had Old Fan on ignore for quite some time now, but I have to admit it's always funny to watch people react to him. That's why I had to put him on ignore, he's just too infuriating.

[Old#5fan]

Old#5Fan, as I've explained to you before:The entire object of a plate appearance is to get on base. Via hit, walk, hit by pitch or catchers interference, getting on base is the ultimate goal. Getting on base is good. Walks are good. Nick is a good player.

Show me where the object is only to "get on base'? The object is to hit the ball and drive in runs. Especially when you bat third or fourth. Walking is fine if you are a leadoff guy but it is not the end all be all for your third and fourth place hitters. Their number one job is to drive in runs period. A walk only does that with the bases loaded. Nobody is going to make a great player out of himself by walking. You have to be able to hit the ball.

[Old#5fan]

In terms of figuring out who has been the most valuable player this season, that is a great stat. Basically a version of WXRL that applies to every player. I'm not really sure how it takes defense/errors into account though. Does it reward an offensive player and penalize a pitcher whenever a fielder makes an error?

But for its purpose, determining who has had the biggest impact on a game or season, it seems like a great stat. I doubt its terrible useful at anything predictive, as its basically a summation of batters/pitchers performance during "clutch" or high leverage situations.

So while I won't argue at all that Johnson and Huff have probably been our MVPs this year, I don't think they will repeat their performances (especially huff) or that Nick Markakis is the 6th best player on the team. Markakis is the best player on the team, without doubt, IMO. His contributions have just come at such a time that they weren't as valuable this season as someone like Mora, who has seemed to come through in the clutch very often. I don't think clutchness is a repeatable skill, so I don't think these trends will neccesarily carry over to next season.

No, he's not and it really isn't even close. This analysis clearly shows it period, even though I realize it is shocking the living tar out of some of you. :laughlol: I think Markakis major flaw is he has a little bit of choke in him. By that I mean he cannot handle pressure situations as well as a lesser skilled hitter like Melvin Mora or even Huff.

[Moose Milligan]

Show me where the object is only to "get on base'? The object is to hit the ball and drive in runs. Especially when you bat third or fourth. Walking is fine if you are a leadoff guy but it is not the end all be all for your third and fourth place hitters. Their number one job is to drive in runs period. A walk only does that with the bases loaded.

Because even the greatest 3rd and 4th place hitters of all time had high on base percentages.

Barry Bonds' on base percentage was flat out ridiculous during his 'roid rage years. As a result, he pretty much carried his team to a World Series appearance.

Will you sit there and tell me to my face that Barry Bonds wasn't that good because he walked a lot?

Here's the list of all time walk leaders: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hiwalk1.shtml

Will you sit there and tell me that most of these batters failed at their jobs hitting in the middle of the lineup because they walked a lot?

[DrungoHazewood]

Thats what you think. He walks too much instead of swinging the bat and also needs to come through more often with RISP and/or produce game winning rbi. He's not impressive at either.

His outs are also less than productive, he doesn't have nearly as many triples as he could, and he often selfishly refuses to throw his bat at pitches he can't reach. He needs to be taught a lesson. Posthaste.

[DrungoHazewood]

Because even the greatest 3rd and 4th place hitters of all time had high on base percentages.

Barry Bonds' on base percentage was flat out ridiculous during his 'roid rage years. As a result, he pretty much carried his team to a World Series appearance.

Will you sit there and tell me to my face that Barry Bonds wasn't that good because he walked a lot?

Here's the list of all time walk leaders: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hiwalk1.shtml

Will you sit there and tell me that most of these batters failed at their jobs hitting in the middle of the lineup because they walked a lot?

Please stop using logic and sense to argue with Old#5. It only encourages him.

Before long this thread will be 33 pages long, and there are an infinite number of things that those 87 trillion electrons could be better used for.

[DrungoHazewood]

Show me where the object is only to "get on base'? The object is to hit the ball and drive in runs. Especially when you bat third or fourth. Walking is fine if you are a leadoff guy but it is not the end all be all for your third and fourth place hitters. Their number one job is to drive in runs period. A walk only does that with the bases loaded. Nobody is going to make a great player out of himself by walking. You have to be able to hit the ball.

Ozzie Guillen almost never walked, because he comes from an island and you can't walk off islands. That's why he's the greatest man who ever lived.