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By Can_of_corn · Posted
Sorry, I fell asleep there, you were saying? -
By OnlyOneOriole · Posted
See I disagree. As a race horse trainer and owner who has trained 100s and 100s of horses and who has bought many yearlings and older horses, you 100% have to look at pedigree when buying a yearling, and you mix pedigree and past performance history when buying a horse that has already raced before. That is really your only way to judge future performance. I am not going to spend $50,000 on a horse with a sire like Amanda's Cadet, who was a poorly gaited horse I owned, but I would strongly consider it if the sire was Western Hanover. Add in your ability to train and bring out the best in the horse and you make a judgement on what you think the horse will do in the future. For example, I once traded the horse I mentioned above, Amanda's cadet, to another trainer for an On the Road Again sired horse. On the Road Again is one of the greatest harness horses ever and he almost always had fast offspring. But this horse that I traded for, the son of On the Road again named Jbs Expressway, was at the time 4 years old and had done nothing. Maybe had made $10,000 TOTAL up until then. But man he was a beautifully built horse and I knew with his lineage that he had the potential to be really good. I traded the Cadet horse for JB, made a few changes, and he won his first 6 races for me and went on to make a ton of money for me. He always had the pedigree, he just needed a change of scenery. In Heston's case (btw there used to be a very fast horse called Heston Blue Chip), he has the pedigree and the past performance. Trading him for these 2 relievers would be like trading a $100,000 stakes horse for two 6 year olds that up until this year had done nothing. Sure they are faster right now but they never showed it before. You just cannot do that. If you are going to trade quality, or in the case with Heston 'potential quality' with a college and minor league history to back it up, you had better make damn sure you get proven quality back. Those 2 relievers are not proven quality. -
I read these for amusement, but at the end of the day, there’s only one power ranking that matters, and there is no website that decides it. -
It’s a tough call. The O’s need more help in the bullpen, both short term and long term, than they do in the outfield. But I think the state of affairs are well enough that you can really pick and choose your keepers. Kjerstad is a “nugget” (are we still using that term?) and the back of the bullpen, while a weak spot on an otherwise great team, isn’t really that bad off or anything. So you offer out the guys that obviously don’t have a place here, presently Norby, Stowers, and Beavers, and take what you can get for them…assuming you’re not giving them away of course. No reason to put Kjerstad in that mix if you dont have to…and they don’t have to. -
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This is of course a pretty well reasoned post...but it comes undone a bit at the end. Valuing players and trading value for value is what every good GM strives to do. And saying we have Beavers so we can trade Kjerstad is of course correct, but you absolutely don't want to devalue what you get in return for talent because you have more. On the margins, sure. But if you value your work, and it is clear that Elias does, and you believe these guys still have value, you don't just give em away because you have plenty. I know that is not what you are really saying. But the counter is also true. I don't think keeping people to have 1-9 homegrown is a thing. And I would rather trade Kjerstad for a bat that might push us over the edge than trade him for two middling relievers. He is more valuable than that today even taking into account the wide range of outcomes he could have. I believe we will make trades before the deadline. I don't think Elias cares where the starting 9 comes from but I think he will look for true upgrades. -
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fwiw, in the clips before his HR derby swings, he's got the leg kick in the highlights. Dunno if it's "the same" leg kick we're seeing today, but it's pronounced.. possible he was "cheating" his swing in the derby, but i dunno. 🤔
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