2019 #5 Prospect Austin Hays - CF

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I was really encouraged with his performance in Baltimore this season.  He's definitely a reason to look forward to the 2020 season.  

Hoping that he can stay healthy, seems to be the big issue with him.  

I guess the injuries are the reason behind his wild swings in performance?  .958 OPS between A and AA at 21.  Then .703 in AA the next.  Then .763 between three levels this year, and a .947 in the majors.  The high end looks great, but what's real?  He had Jones' achilles heel, in that his career high in walks is 27.  Just once I'd like a prospect who walks 80 times a year.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I got this wrong. I guess I think of him as a major leaguer. 

Kind of feels like Bundy or Hunter Harvey, doesn't he?  Like we've been talking about him for a long time.  

[Philip]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Jones hit a lot of homeruns in the middle of the order for a lot of years. 

And he made a whole lot of amazing catches: one of the reasons I love Gary Thorne is,”...ONE OF THE GREATEST CATCHES YOULL EVER SEE!”

I don’t know whether Jones at his best is better or not, and I will certainly defer to the judgment of those who know more, but if Hays can be as good, or even almost as good, then we will have a lot of fun watching him over the next several years.

[OsEatAlEast]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

By the way, the OH scouting report for 2017 graded Hays’ speed at 50 for now and 45 in the future.    Described in the write up as “solid average speed, maybe a tick above in the outfield.”    What the heck happened to this guy?
 

Tried to go from the 2018 top 30 list to the Hays writeup, but the link misdirected me to some headline about Buck and Adam’s last game.   Same is true for the Diaz link on that list.    I don’t know about the others.    (Edit: same thing happens when I click on the link in the Hays-specific thread from last year’s discussion of the OH rankings.)

He's always flown under the radar as far as speed goes. Might be because of his stolen bases don't really say how fast he is. I remember watching his videos out of college and thinking he was faster than most people were saying.

 

[OsEatAlEast]

Stotle had some really good post on it in the thread linked above.

[Ohfan67]

I really like Austin Hays, but the discussion of Hays' ceiling being Adam Jones or even Adam Jones with more defense is an overestimation in my opinion. This was Hays' age 23 season (he turned 24 in July) and he's managed to appear in 41 total ML games. Adam Jones was an All Star and Gold Glove winner at age 23...even with the blowing chewing gum bubbles handicap . Jones won GGs during his age 23, 25, 27, and 28 seasons. Yes, yes, GG awards are not quantitative based, the voting has built in biases, etc., but Adam was an outstanding defender in his prime and widely recognized as such. Austin played well in 21 games this fall, but I don't think Hays hits close to that in a full season in Baltimore. And he will be 25 next summer. I don't know what percentage of likelihood outcome is considered "ceiling" in scouting reports, but I think the odds of Austin having a three or four year run as good Adam's best years are really, really low. Like basically zero. Certainly too low to label as his "ceiling" in my opinion. And of course he has to stay healthy which is a whole other thing. 

[joelala]

6 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I really like Austin Hays, but the discussion of Hays' ceiling being Adam Jones or even Adam Jones with more defense is an overestimation in my opinion. This was Hays' age 23 season (he turned 24 in July) and he's managed to appear in 41 total ML games. Adam Jones was an All Star and Gold Glove winner at age 23...even with the blowing chewing gum bubbles handicap . Jones won GGs during his age 23, 25, 27, and 28 seasons. Yes, yes, GG awards are not quantitative based, the voting has built in biases, etc., but Adam was an outstanding defender in his prime and widely recognized as such. Austin played well in 21 games this fall, but I don't think Hays hits close to that in a full season in Baltimore. And he will be 25 next summer. I don't know what percentage of likelihood outcome is considered "ceiling" in scouting reports, but I think the odds of Austin having a three or four year run as good Adam's best years are really, really low. Like basically zero. Certainly too low to label as his "ceiling" in my opinion. And of course he has to stay healthy which is a whole other thing. 

Thank you. Let’s not forget that Adam was one of the premiere Centerfielders in the league during his prime. I think  there’s some recency bias occurring here. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

So, is Hays at his best better than AJ at his best?

I think Jones is a pretty decent comp for Hays, though it bears saying Jones was already established in the big leagues at Hays age. I'd say if hays has a Jones career that would be a very good success for him and the Orioles. 

[DrungoHazewood]

51 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I really like Austin Hays, but the discussion of Hays' ceiling being Adam Jones or even Adam Jones with more defense is an overestimation in my opinion. This was Hays' age 23 season (he turned 24 in July) and he's managed to appear in 41 total ML games. Adam Jones was an All Star and Gold Glove winner at age 23...even with the blowing chewing gum bubbles handicap . Jones won GGs during his age 23, 25, 27, and 28 seasons. Yes, yes, GG awards are not quantitative based, the voting has built in biases, etc., but Adam was an outstanding defender in his prime and widely recognized as such. Austin played well in 21 games this fall, but I don't think Hays hits close to that in a full season in Baltimore. And he will be 25 next summer. I don't know what percentage of likelihood outcome is considered "ceiling" in scouting reports, but I think the odds of Austin having a three or four year run as good Adam's best years are really, really low. Like basically zero. Certainly too low to label as his "ceiling" in my opinion. And of course he has to stay healthy which is a whole other thing. 

By JAWS Adam Jones is the 79th-best CFer in Major League baseball history.  I think it's down to Adam or Brady for 2nd-best CFer in team history.  It would be pretty astounding if Hays could be mentioned in the same breath as those players.  

Right now he's about where Rich Coggins, Luis Matos, maybe Steve Finley, John Shelby were at his age. Damon Buford.  Felix Pie.

I think Hays could and should be a better defender than Jones. If only because he will not be able to push back on management when they tell him to play where the metrics say he should.

[makoman]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess the injuries are the reason behind his wild swings in performance?  .958 OPS between A and AA at 21.  Then .703 in AA the next.  Then .763 between three levels this year, and a .947 in the majors.  The high end looks great, but what's real?  He had Jones' achilles heel, in that his career high in walks is 27.  Just once I'd like a prospect who walks 80 times a year.

Our #6 prospect could still be that guy. Has 80 BB per 162 games in AA.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

I really like Austin Hays, but the discussion of Hays' ceiling being Adam Jones or even Adam Jones with more defense is an overestimation in my opinion. This was Hays' age 23 season (he turned 24 in July) and he's managed to appear in 41 total ML games. Adam Jones was an All Star and Gold Glove winner at age 23...even with the blowing chewing gum bubbles handicap . Jones won GGs during his age 23, 25, 27, and 28 seasons. Yes, yes, GG awards are not quantitative based, the voting has built in biases, etc., but Adam was an outstanding defender in his prime and widely recognized as such. Austin played well in 21 games this fall, but I don't think Hays hits close to that in a full season in Baltimore. And he will be 25 next summer. I don't know what percentage of likelihood outcome is considered "ceiling" in scouting reports, but I think the odds of Austin having a three or four year run as good Adam's best years are really, really low. Like basically zero. Certainly too low to label as his "ceiling" in my opinion. And of course he has to stay healthy which is a whole other thing. 

Well, we are discussing ceiling here, not probabilities.    Jones, to me, never quite reached his own ceiling, because he wasn’t able to completely win his battle with plate discipline.    He’s had a great career, but 106 OPS+ might certainly be exceeded by Hays if he maxes out.   In short, I’d say Hays does have a Jones-like ceiling.     Reaching that ceiling won’t be easy, though.   

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess the injuries are the reason behind his wild swings in performance?  .958 OPS between A and AA at 21.  Then .703 in AA the next.  Then .763 between three levels this year, and a .947 in the majors.  The high end looks great, but what's real?  He had Jones' achilles heel, in that his career high in walks is 27.  Just once I'd like a prospect who walks 80 times a year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wieter001mat

 

82 walks in 2008.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wieter001mat

 

82 walks in 2008.

None of the league leaders in the International, Eastern, Carolina or South Atlantic Leagues managed to walk 80 times in 2019.    I suppose it’s possible that someone who split time between two leagues did it.   
 

Cadyn Grenier and Ryan McKenna led the O’s minor leaguers in walks, with 59 each.  
 

A few O’s minor leaguers have topped 80 walks this decade, led by Branden Webb, who walked 98 times at Delmarva and Frederick in 2012.    

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

By JAWS Adam Jones is the 79th-best CFer in Major League baseball history.  I think it's down to Adam or Brady for 2nd-best CFer in team history.  It would be pretty astounding if Hays could be mentioned in the same breath as those players.  

Right now he's about where Rich Coggins, Luis Matos, maybe Steve Finley, John Shelby were at his age. Damon Buford.  Felix Pie.

I think Hays could and should be a better defender than Jones. If only because he will not be able to push back on management when they tell him to play where the metrics say he should.

Matos and Finley (pre-enhancement stage) were never at Hays' level. I do not think it will be "astounding" to see Hays play at a Adam Jones level at some point. as they have very similar skill sets. Hays was slowed by injuries and was not fast tracked through the minors like Jones was because he went to college vs signing after high school.

They have very similar tools and although I agree that if Hays is mentioned in the same breath as Jones we should consider Hays a significant success, but I wouldn't say it would be shocking if we do at some point. 

[LookinUp]

It's almost unfair to both Jones and Hays to compare them.

• Jones progressed very fast. Hays might have too, but injuries.
• Jones played for dinosaurs. I hate to point that out, but his approach never got the scrutiny and development that Hays will benefit from.
• Jones, for all of his accolades, always seemed less capable (to me) than his hype. That was frustrating, because he was certainly very good. I just don't think things like gold gloves really reflect the type of fielder that he was (or wasn't). 

Hays has some really nice physical tools and will hopefully be groomed by modern approaches. In that sense, he has a chance to be better than the very good, but not exactly great, Jones...IMO. Whether he actually turns into that player is another thing altogether.

I expect Hays' 2020 production to take a step back from what we saw. The question to me is, how much? We'll see.