Orioles ROY Mountcastle vs Hays/Harvey

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

You are correct. I had forgotten that Mancini got votes. So, Defense aside, if he is as good or better than Mancini, he’ll be a candidate.

if Hays hits a bit less well, but continues to offer excellent defense, he would be the preferred candidate.

We shall see.

You say that but you also say things that make it sound as if you have already made up your mind.

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

You are correct. I had forgotten that Mancini got votes. So, Defense aside, if he is as good or better than Mancini, he’ll be a candidate.

if Hays hits a bit less well, but continues to offer excellent defense, he would be the preferred candidate.

We shall see.

I just do not understand why you are making things up about his defense that no one knows. Those who do know say that he is making good progress at several positions. Unless Elias is lying. 

[HowAboutThat]

11 minutes ago, weams said:

I just do not understand why you are making things up about his defense that no one knows. Those who do know say that he is making good progress at several positions. Unless Elias is lying. 

Every.single. Report. I have read on Mountcastle says the same thing about his defense. You have read them too, and therefore you know from whence I come.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Every.single. Report. I have read on Mountcastle says the same thing about his defense. You have read them too, and therefore you know from whence I come.

Show. Me. One. Report. That. Says. He's. Useless. In. The. Field.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well that depends on how one defines useless. I define it as negative dWAR. I’ll grant that that isn’t determined yet, but we’ll see.

Don’t say negative dWAR.    dWAR is a combination of two things: positional adjustment and skill relative to others at that position.    1B starts out at a positional adjustment of about -9 per 162 games.   Therefore, you can be a well above average 1B and still have a negative dWAR.  dWAR is not a measure of how good a defender you are at the position you play.    Example: Chris Davis deservedly was a Gold Glove finalist in 2016, but was -0.2 dWAR, even though he was 6 runs better than average at 1B defensively.    

I noticed that there is some confusion in the thread, in that some people are arguing about who will be the Orioles’ best ROY candidate but other people are talking about who has a realistic shot to be ROY.    It’s really not that likely that any Orioles player will be in the ROY discussion, though you never know (see: Means, J.).    But Mountcastle certainly has a shot to be our best candidate.    Let’s not forget that Trey Mancini finished 3rd in the ROY voting 2017 despite having similar defensive limitations to Mountcastle.    
 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Every.single. Report. I have read on Mountcastle says the same thing about his defense. You have read them too, and therefore you know from whence I come.

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2019/12/9/orioles-2020-top-30-prospects

Quote

Versatile defender who can play all over the diamond should make an impact in 2020.

I guess you didn't read that one?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Show. Me. One. Report. That. Says. He's. Useless. In. The. Field.

This is the worst I’ve seen:

“His defense at first was not average, so he’s really going to have to hit.”  https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/12/part-two-a-scouts-take-on-os-prospects.html

[HowAboutThat]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 Let’s not forget that Trey Mancini finished 3rd in the ROY voting 2017 despite having similar defensive limitations to Mountcastle.    

Yes, I had forgotten that Mancini did that well in the rookie voting. I don’t remember who won that year nor how good the overall competition was, and if Mountcastle hits as well as Mancini did, He may will be in the conversation. I’m not going to predict anything negative, but at the moment I’m going to put my money on Hays, assuming he avoids injury.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes, I had forgotten that Mancini did that well in the rookie voting. I don’t remember who won that year nor how good the overall competition was, and if Mountcastle hits as well as Mancini did, He may will be in the conversation. I’m not going to predict anything negative, but at the moment I’m going to put my money on Hays, assuming he avoids injury.

You called him useless in the field.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is the worst I’ve seen:

“His defense at first was not average, so he’s really going to have to hit.”  https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/12/part-two-a-scouts-take-on-os-prospects.html

Yep and even that one doesn't talk about his play in left.  Which, judging by three clips posted to Twitter, looked pretty good. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes, I had forgotten that Mancini did that well in the rookie voting. I don’t remember who won that year nor how good the overall competition was, and if Mountcastle hits as well as Mancini did, He may will be in the conversation. I’m not going to predict anything negative, but at the moment I’m going to put my money on Hays, assuming he avoids injury.

I also put my money on Hays, but it’s not a slam dunk.    

The year Mancini finished third, the unanimous ROY was Aaron Judge.    Andrew Benintendi finished a pretty easy second.     
 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep and even that one doesn't talk about his play in left.  Which, judging by three clips posted to Twitter, looked pretty good. 

Truth is, with 83 starts at 1B and 26 in LF, there’s very little basis to judge how good he’ll be at either position with more experience.    I’m hoping for average.

[Just Regular]

Hays enduring in CF is the key for him.  Last September seems too good to be true, especially for me as he was only a part-time CF in the minors.  I tend to think "real" SS and "real" CF don't get bounced around positionally, but he was.  26 weeks of CF will have a good edge on 20 weeks down the defensive spectrum, if the hitting is in the same neighborhood.

I'd be tempted to bet Harvey - Hyde really seemed to like him and if they let him get Saves, he'll have the Dad narrative.  I'm not sure if the RoY electorate has been culled quite as much as the HoF electorate.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Show. Me. One. Report. That. Says. He's. Useless. In. The. Field.

I don't have a ton of time to look in detail, but let's take a quick look at Baseball Savant:

OOA (Outs Above Average): -6 ....74th Among Qualified Outfielders

Mancini ranks near the bottom in Outfield OOA. To compare, Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, and Dexter Fowler also were scored with -6 OOA. Dwight Smith had -10 OOA.

For context, Trout had -2 OOA last year, same as Nick Markakis and our own Stevie Wilkerson.

Outfielder Jump (Ft Vs. Avg): -2.5.... 86th Among Qualified Outfielders

To compare, Mancini is similar to Castellanos, Fowler, and Eddie Rosario. Dwight Smith ranked at -2.8, a bit worse. 

Sprint Speed: 26.7 ... 339 Among Qualified Players, 44th out of 58th for RF's

Mancini actually has average sprint speed when considering all players. He ranks with Charlie Blackmon and Josh Bell. But, when just looking at RFs, he is below average.

 

I personally am still trying to get a handle on the fielding metrics that Baseball Savant provides. But just from these basic numbers, Mancini is clearly below average in the outfield. Not incompetent whatsoever, but he is well below average. That probably isn't a shock to anyone.

That being said, his bat still makes him a valuable player. He is comparable to a Nick Castellanos or Eddie Rosario type of player. Ultimately, Mancini becomes far more valuable as a primary first baseman who can play the outfield when needed.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

I don't have a ton of time to look in detail, but let's take a quick look at Baseball Savant:

OOA (Outs Above Average): -6 ....74th Among Qualified Outfielders

Mancini ranks near the bottom in Outfield OOA. To compare, Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, and Dexter Fowler also were scored with -6 OOA. Dwight Smith had -10 OOA.

For context, Trout had -2 OOA last year, same as Nick Markakis and our own Stevie Wilkerson.

Outfielder Jump (Ft Vs. Avg): -2.5.... 86th Among Qualified Outfielders

To compare, Mancini is similar to Castellanos, Fowler, and Eddie Rosario. Dwight Smith ranked at -2.8, a bit worse. 

Sprint Speed: 26.7 ... 339 Among Qualified Players, 44th out of 58th for RF's

Mancini actually has average sprint speed when considering all players. He ranks with Charlie Blackmon and Josh Bell. But, when just looking at RFs, he is below average.

 

I personally am still trying to get a handle on the fielding metrics that Baseball Savant provides. But just from these basic numbers, Mancini is clearly below average in the outfield. Not incompetent whatsoever, but he is well below average. That probably isn't a shock to anyone.

That being said, his bat still makes him a valuable player. He is comparable to a Nick Castellanos or Eddie Rosario type of player. Ultimately, Mancini becomes far more valuable as a primary first baseman who can play the outfield when needed.

 

That's great but I was talking about Mountcastle.