Some thoughts on the 2019 debut class

[Frobby]

Last year, 261 players debuted in the majors, an average of 8.7 per team.   The O’s debuted 8 players, slightly under the league average.     They were (in order of debut): Richie Martin, Drew Jackson, Matt Wotherspoon, Branden Kline, Tom Eshelman, Dillon Tate, Chandler Shepherd and Hunter Harvey.

Here are some observations about the group:

1.    Only two of them, Kline and Harvey, were drafted by the Orioles.    

2.     Six were pitchers.   Both the position players came in the Rule 5 draft, and Jackson lasted less than a week.   

3.   None of the players were foreign born.  

4.   Only three of the eight remain on our 40-man roster today: Martin, Tate and Harvey.     

5.   The median age of all 261 debuting players was 24 years, 298 days.    Only two of our eight were younger than that — Martin (24.096) and Harvey (24.251).    More than 1/3 of all the players who debuted were younger than either Martin or Harvey.

Overall, it was a very weak crop for the Orioles, and illustrates the mess he inherited.    I’d say only Harvey has a decent shot of being an impact player.

The debut class of 2020 has a chance to be much more interesting.    






 

[survivedc]

Hays sure felt like a debut to me. 2017 was so long ago and felt artificial in a weird way. He would certainly improve this debut class if he were included but otherwise was a pretty disappointing group.

[interloper]

I think what we can say about this debut class is that they were a class of need. Most of these players were just the Orioles needing to fill holes in an emergency. It's why the Harvey call-up felt so different, because that was more about the Orioles promoting the player rather than desperately patching a hole. 

[HowAboutThat]

Once again, a great contribution. I agree with Interloper. Most of these guys were cannon fodder. Means would have been too but LO! He turned out to be good!

We can use this post as a gauge of progress this season. How many debuts will we have? It’s logical that fewer first appearances Indicates that the guys already here don’t need to be replaced, so that’s good.

And how many of the debuts will be on the roster next year at this time?

Akin, Kremer, Mountcastle( wherever he plays) Baumann? Lowther? Zimmermann? No idea, but I bet it’s more than 5.

And surprises? How many and who?

And this is where Mike is going to make his mark. Assembling a truly perceptive coaching staff, confident but willing to discuss and consider.

”We collect solutions.” Is one of my mantras. That’s the kind of group Mike has assembled.

That’s why I’m really excited about “surprises.” We’re going to see a lot of improvement in the mediocre players we have, and that is why I am so enthusiastic about this season.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Philip said:

Once again, a great contribution. I agree with Interloper. Most of these guys were cannon fodder. Means would have been too but LO! He turned out to be good!

We can use this post as a gauge of progress this season. How many debuts will we have? It’s logical that fewer first appearances Indicates that the guys already here don’t need to be replaced, so that’s good.

And how many of the debuts will be on the roster next year at this time?

Akin, Kremer, Mountcastle( wherever he plays) Baumann? Lowther? Zimmermann? No idea, but I bet it’s more than 5.

And surprises? How many and who?

And this is where Mike is going to make his mark. Assembling a truly perceptive coaching staff, confident but willing to discuss and consider.

”We collect solutions.” Is one of my mantras. That’s the kind of group Mike has assembled.

That’s why I’m really excited about “surprises.” We’re going to see a lot of improvement in the mediocre players we have, and that is why I am so enthusiastic about this season.

Don’t forget that if we keep Bailey and/or Rucker, their debuts will count towards our total.    I’d say the following players could debut in 2020:

Mountcastle

Akin 

Bailey

Rucker

Kremer

Zimmermann

Bannon

Lowther

Wells 

Baumann

Diaz

Alvarado

To be clear, I’m not saying that all 12 of those guys will debut this year, just that each of them is a possibility.   

I don’t think that it’s necessarily a sign of a weak team when a lot of debuts happen in a single year.   For example, last year the Twins had 12 debuts, the Astros and Rays 9, the Dodgers, Indians and Cardinals 8 each.   On the other hand, the Mariners debuted 21 and the Padres 18, which does seem a bit crazy.   
 

[sportsfan8703]

Harvey and Hays definitely felt different than the rest of players that debuted.  I know Hays had already been up, but he's technically still a rookie.  

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Don’t forget that if we keep Bailey and/or Rucker, their debuts will count towards our total.    I’d say the following players could debut in 2020:

Mountcastle

Akin 

Bailey

Rucker

Kremer

Zimmermann

Bannon

Lowther

Wells 

Baumann

Diaz

Alvarado

To be clear, I’m not saying that all 12 of those guys will debut this year, just that each of them is a possibility.   

I don’t think that it’s necessarily a sign of a weak team when a lot of debuts happen in a single year.   For example, last year the Twins had 12 debuts, the Astros and Rays 9, the Dodgers, Indians and Cardinals 8 each.   On the other hand, the Mariners debuted 21 and the Padres 18, which does seem a bit crazy.   
 

 Well, my own sense of this progression is that guys who debut will no longer be warm bodies thrown into the front lines, but guys with more legitimate potential. Bailey and Rucker Are the exception of course, because of their rule five status, And some guys will debut in September just for a cup of coffee so I’m really talking about the guys to come up between April and June or so.

And if they are replaced, then the guys who replace them will be guys with even more potential. Last year we used Smith because we didn’t really have anybody better, this year if somebody debuts in his stead, it will de facto mean that we have found somebody better.

But the real winners will be the guys who debut in April and stick all the way through. And those will include the surprises, and when will April be here dammit…

 

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Don’t forget that if we keep Bailey and/or Rucker, their debuts will count towards our total.    I’d say the following players could debut in 2020:

Mountcastle

Akin 

Bailey

Rucker

Kremer

Zimmermann

Bannon

Lowther

Wells 

Baumann

Diaz

Alvarado

To be clear, I’m not saying that all 12 of those guys will debut this year, just that each of them is a possibility.   

I don’t think that it’s necessarily a sign of a weak team when a lot of debuts happen in a single year.   For example, last year the Twins had 12 debuts, the Astros and Rays 9, the Dodgers, Indians and Cardinals 8 each.   On the other hand, the Mariners debuted 21 and the Padres 18, which does seem a bit crazy.   
 

What's harder to predict is the random scrubs who get added on and off the 40-man. Guys like Wotherspoon last year. There's bound to be a couple of those.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

What's harder to predict is the random scrubs who get added on and off the 40-man. Guys like Wotherspoon last year. There's bound to be a couple of those.

Agreed.    

[Legend_Of_Joey]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Don’t forget that if we keep Bailey and/or Rucker, their debuts will count towards our total.    I’d say the following players could debut in 2020:

Mountcastle

Akin 

Bailey

Rucker

Kremer

Zimmermann

Bannon

Lowther

Wells 

Baumann

Diaz

Alvarado

To be clear, I’m not saying that all 12 of those guys will debut this year, just that each of them is a possibility.   

I don’t think that it’s necessarily a sign of a weak team when a lot of debuts happen in a single year.   For example, last year the Twins had 12 debuts, the Astros and Rays 9, the Dodgers, Indians and Cardinals 8 each.   On the other hand, the Mariners debuted 21 and the Padres 18, which does seem a bit crazy.   
 

I would add in Mason McCoy.

He is coming to MLB camp and will get a lot of instruction from the coaches, along with a lot of looks (maybe not in games, but he will have eyes on him.) 

In the event of a strong showing and an injury, he could appear this year.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I would add in Mason McCoy.

He is coming to MLB camp and will get a lot of instruction from the coaches, along with a lot of looks (maybe not in games, but he will have eyes on him.) 

In the event of a strong showing and an injury, he could appear this year.

Yeah, I thought about adding McCoy.   It could happen.    I’m very mindful of the fact that he didn’t hit well in the latter part of the season — .532 OPS in July, .576 in August, .615 in the AFL.    He did very well at Frederick and initially in his promotion to Bowie, but he fizzled badly after that.

[Spl51]

4 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I would add in Mason McCoy.

He is coming to MLB camp and will get a lot of instruction from the coaches, along with a lot of looks (maybe not in games, but he will have eyes on him.) 

In the event of a strong showing and an injury, he could appear this year.

McCoy is nothing to be excited about. After watching him, I'm way down on him. I like Bannon a little bit though.