2020 Comp Pick A (30): Jordan Westburg - SS - (JR) (Mississippi State)

[interloper]

Elias mentioned there were a couple pitchers that didn't make it to 30 so they took the next highest guy on their board in Westburg.

I think today we'll see the overslot pitchers.

[Camden_yardbird]

Having looked into this a bit if you are looking for justification for both of these picks I would look no further than exit velocity.  Both seem to have that as a primary strength in their profiles.

[tntoriole]

This is  from a Mississippi State fan site...

Mississippi State junior shortstop Jordan Westburg is another player who could go anywhere from the late 1st round to the Comp A round. Nobody that I talked to within the baseball industry sees him going later than the Comp A round. When it is all said and done, I expect him to be drafted somewhere in the Comp A round and quickly sign. While Foscue has proven himself on the highest level of college baseball, Westburg is a guy with several plus tools but hasn't transferred his hitting tool on a consistent level on the collegiate level. But his plus tools (power, arm, footspeed) can't be denied. And he is athletic enough to play numerous positions on the field, shortstop, third base and the outfield. There is a lot to like about him. He isn't as safe of a pick as Foscue but his upside is better. And he will reach that upside if he figures out how to make consistent contact at the plate.

https://247sports.com/college/mississippi-state/LongFormArticle/-Predicting-the-2020-MLB-draft-status-of-Mississippi-State-current-players-and-signees-147983543/#147983543_3

 

[Number5]

8 hours ago, Sydnor said:

I think Law was suggesting that the savings from Kjerstad should’ve enabled the O’s to go over slot at both 30 and 39. Perhaps they will go over slot at 39 and 74. I’m somewhat skeptical that they’re going to spend their full allotment, but will be happy to be wrong (I’m aware that they’ve traditionally spent the full allotment, but this is a different year with Covid and the new presence in Latin America). We will find out!

Law mocked Westburg at #26 to Oakland.  The Orioles have now drafted Westburg at #30 and Law has negative things to say about Elias.  You are giving Law way too much credit.  

I don't pretend to know what Elias is planning, but if he goes under-slot at #39, it makes sense to me why he would have taken Westburg at #30 and the under-slot at #39, since doing it in that order gives the higher likelihood of securing both.  Two teams have selected a college SS after our #30 pick.  We have no way of knowing if they would have selected Westburg over the player they drafted, but it does at least show that taking Westburg at that point rather than hoping to get him at #39 looks like a sound decision, assuming the Orioles wanted Westburg.

Getting Jared Kelley at #39 would be an amazing coup, IMO.  Coming away with Kjerstad, Kelley, and Westburg would be brilliant, IMO.  I'm hoping that is the plan.  Detroit will almost surely go full slot for Tork, so they don't appear to be able to go over-slot for Kelley; and it doesn't seem likely that Kelley would sign for slot money at this point.  Carson Montgomery looks like a good over-slot candidate, as well, if either the Tigers surprise and take Kelley or Elias just isn't as high on Kelley.  Having said all that, maybe Elias and Sig are just really high on Kjerstad and they pay him closer to full slot than I'm thinking.  Either Wilcox or McMahon would be a good pick at #39 if that is the case.  I like both of those guys, but I really like what I've read about Kelley and hope the over-slot strategy is indeed what is in play here.  I suppose that Elias could take Wilcox or McMahon and count on the unsignability of Kelley and/or Montgomery to allow them to slip to #74, but that seems overly risky to me.  We will find out soon..

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Law mocked Westburg at #26 to Oakland.  The Orioles have now drafted Westburg at #30 and Law has negative things to say about Elias.  You are giving Law way too much credit.  

I don't pretend to know what Elias is planning, but if he goes under-slot at #39, it makes sense to me why he would have taken Westburg at #30 and the under-slot at #39, since doing it in that order gives the higher likelihood of securing both.  Two teams have selected a college SS after our #30 pick.  We have no way of knowing if they would have selected Westburg over the player they drafted, but it does at least show that taking Westburg at that point rather than hoping to get him at #39 looks like a sound decision, assuming the Orioles wanted Westburg.

Getting Jared Kelley at #39 would be an amazing coup, IMO.  Coming away with Kjerstad, Kelley, and Westburg would be brilliant, IMO.  I'm hoping that is the plan.  Detroit will almost surely go full slot for Tork, so they don't appear to be able to go over-slot for Kelley; and it doesn't seem likely that Kelley would sign for slot money at this point.  Carson Montgomery looks like a good over-slot candidate, as well, if either the Tigers surprise and take Kelley or Elias just isn't as high on Kelley.  Having said all that, maybe Elias and Sig are just really high on Kjerstad and they pay him closer to full slot than I'm thinking.  Either Wilcox or McMahon would be a good pick at #39 if that is the case.  I like both of those guys, but I really like what I've read about Kelley and hope the over-slot strategy is indeed what is in play here.  I suppose that Elias could take Wilcox or McMahon and count on the unsignability of Kelley and/or Montgomery to allow them to slip to #74, but that seems overly risky to me.  We will find out soon..

Under the current arrangement no player selected 1-1 has received full slot.

[Sydnor]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

 Either Wilcox or McMahon would be a good pick at #39 if that is the case.  I like both of those guys, but I really like what I've read about Kelley and hope the over-slot strategy is indeed what is in play here.  I suppose that Elias could take Wilcox or McMahon and count on the unsignability of Kelley and/or Montgomery to allow them to slip to #74, but that seems overly risky to me.  We will find out soon..

I suspect Wilcox is looking for an overslot deal as a draft eligible sophomore. He has the leverage to go back to school (as does JT Ginn).

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Under the current arrangement no player selected 1-1 has received full slot.

Do you believe that Tork will sign under slot by enough to allow Detroit to be able to sign Kelley?  My guess is that Tork signs for an amount a lot closer to full slot that an amount low enough to make Kelley signable for the Tigers.

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I suspect Wilcox is looking for an overslot deal as a draft eligible sophomore. He has the leverage to go back to school (as does JT Ginn).

Ah, good point.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Do you believe that Tork will sign under slot by enough to allow Detroit to be able to sign Kelley?  My guess is that Tork signs for an amount a lot closer to full slot that an amount low enough to make Kelley signable for the Tigers.

I don't know what it will take to sign Kelley.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know what it will take to sign Kelley.

None of us do.  My question was what do you think?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Number5 said:

None of us do.  My question was what do you think?

I meant I don't have enough information to have an informed opinion.

My gut says no, but it is also telling me it wants me to eat a bunch of Sea Salt & Lime rice crisps.

[Number5]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I meant I don't have enough information to have an informed opinion.

My gut says no, but it is also telling me it wants me to eat a bunch of Sea Salt & Lime rice crisps.

This is the answer.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

This is the answer.

I'm not so trusting of my gut, it's led me astray before.

[Number5]

Rutschman's slot savings was $315K (8.1 million vs. 8.415.}.  Do you think that amount makes a dent on moving Kelley to sign now that we are into round 2 and slot money is a lot lower than it would have been where Kelley was being mocked?  Tork's rep is Boras, so how likely is it that he signs for a lot more under slot that Rutsch did?  Sometimes it's OK to answer realistically rather than hedging, Corn.  None of us have inside knowledge on any of these factors.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

Rutschman's slot savings was $315K (8.1 million vs. 8.415.}.  Do you think that amount makes a dent on moving Kelley to sign now that we are into round 2 and slot money is a lot lower than it would have been where Kelley was being mocked?  Tork's rep is Boras, so how likely is it that he signs for a lot more under slot that Rutsch did?  Sometimes it's OK to answer realistically rather than hedging, Corn.  None of us have inside knowledge on any of these factors.  

I agree with the poster that said a few days ago that Tork would have gone third last year.  I don't think he's a strong #1.  I think, Boras or not, he could end up leaving more money on the table than AR did. 

I honestly don't know if say 500K in saving in the first and going with a senior sign in one of the remaining rounds would be enough money for Kelley.