It's time for the OH to turn the page

[Philip]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I appreciate Wildcards's enthusiasm and optimism.

This season is such a wildcard because of all the variables that really anything could happen and I wouldn't be overly surprised.

Saying that, there is no reality where this is the beginning of a sustainable winning core. 

There is just as much of a chance of this team losing ten straight games as they do of keep playing .500 ball the rest of this season. 

As Drungo has point out, there are some guys who have started out this season way above their carer norms. Even if you believe Severino, Ruiz, Alberto and Nunez are breaking out as they enter their primes, does anyone think Cobb, Milone and Wojo are going to keep pitching to their current ERAs? Cobb maybe since it seems his splitter has come back, but I'm not buying long term sustainability on Milone and Hyde has used Wojo right but not letting him go more than twice through an order. 

I don’t disagree with anything you said, and I’m grateful you said it. Everyone needs a designated driver.

But lemme play devil’s advocate for a moment.

This is 60 games. ~12 starts instead of 30. 60 starters instead of 162, and several guys who can start a time or two and not ruin our lives.

One trait of greatness is consistency. Over 60, that is less important than over 162.

Our starters and our pen appear much superior to the last couple years. Not enough to matter in 162 because the long season takes a toll, And quality-or lack thereof- finds its level, but in 60 games? Sure.

And remember the short season doesn’t help the best, because the best doesn’t need the benefits a short season offers.

The defense is much better too, unless Nunez is playing third, anyway.
so yes I agree with you, but it’s not out of the question.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

7 hours ago, Philip said:

I don’t disagree with anything you said, and I’m grateful you said it. Everyone needs a designated driver.

But lemme play devil’s advocate for a moment.

This is 60 games. ~12 starts instead of 30. 60 starters instead of 162, and several guys who can start a time or two and not ruin our lives.

One trait of greatness is consistency. Over 60, that is less important than over 162.

Our starters and our pen appear much superior to the last couple years. Not enough to matter in 162 because the long season takes a toll, And quality-or lack thereof- finds its level, but in 60 games? Sure.

And remember the short season doesn’t help the best, because the best doesn’t need the benefits a short season offers.

The defense is much better too, unless Nunez is playing third, anyway.
so yes I agree with you, but it’s not out of the question.

 

It's just quite unlikely, instead of pure, unadulterated crazytalk.

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I appreciate Wildcards's enthusiasm and optimism.

This season is such a wildcard because of all the variables that really anything could happen and I wouldn't be overly surprised.

Saying that, there is no reality where this is the beginning of a sustainable winning core. 

There is just as much of a chance of this team losing ten straight games as they do of keep playing .500 ball the rest of this season. 

As Drungo has point out, there are some guys who have started out this season way above their carer norms. Even if you believe Severino, Ruiz, Alberto and Nunez are breaking out as they enter their primes, does anyone think Cobb, Milone and Wojo are going to keep pitching to their current ERAs? Cobb maybe since it seems his splitter has come back, but I'm not buying long term sustainability on Milone and Hyde has used Wojo right but not letting him go more than twice through an order. 

I agree Tony....Of your list I think it’s safe to say Alberto is going to hit.

I have no confidence in Ruiz....Severino and Núñez are typical poor defensive DH types that we have been saddled with for years.

Im expecting Elias to deal any of LeBlanc, Milone, Wojo, and Cobb that is still a competent starter come the deadline.

I still think we are 2 or 3 years away minimum 

 

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's just quite unlikely, instead of pure, unadulterated crazytalk.

And Elias is likely to deal when someone comes a calling. It would be foolhardy to give up on the plan to try and hang around in a rules manipulated (more teams in playoffs) and shortened season.

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

And Elias is likely to deal when someone comes a calling. It would be foolhardy to give up on the plan to try and hang around in a rules manipulated (more teams in playoffs) and shortened season.

He's well aware that expanded playoffs just means that 1/16th of playoff teams will now win the whole thing.  On day one of the playoffs an average team has a 6% chance of winning a ring, and the O's ain't an average playoff team.  If everything works out brilliantly they'll be something like the 16th seed.

No rational mind would throw away a rebuilding season for a small chance at a getting to a series of playoffs they'll have less than a 5% chance of winning.

[wildcard]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I appreciate Wildcards's enthusiasm and optimism.

This season is such a wildcard because of all the variables that really anything could happen and I wouldn't be overly surprised.

Saying that, there is no reality where this is the beginning of a sustainable winning core. 

There is just as much of a chance of this team losing ten straight games as they do of keep playing .500 ball the rest of this season. 

As Drungo has point out, there are some guys who have started out this season way above their carer norms. Even if you believe Severino, Ruiz, Alberto and Nunez are breaking out as they enter their primes, does anyone think Cobb, Milone and Wojo are going to keep pitching to their current ERAs? Cobb maybe since it seems his splitter has come back, but I'm not buying long term sustainability on Milone and Hyde has used Wojo right but not letting him go more than twice through an order. 

The point is when there are 15 or 16 pitchers on the staff Wojo,  Milone and LeBlanc don't have to do any more than go through the lineup twice.    4 2/3 innings is really all that is needed.   The relief staff looks much improved.  I think we have to give the analytics and coaching staff a lot of credit for taking marginal pitchers and improving them with knowledge, physical adjustments and confidence  to make them better.

I also think that the position players are much improved.   Ruiz added 10 pounds and changing his swing,   Alberto hitting righties.  Hays in center.  Santander being full time in right.  The addition of Iglesias as a leader. The two catcher  hitting.   The guys are not just swinging for the fences.  They are trusting each other to have productive at bats.   If Elias will just move Davis to the bench, Nunez to 1B and use several players at DH, I can see move improvement to come.  Especially with promotion of Mountcastle.

Nothing is for sure.  But there is more of a chance of a winning team then we have seen in a  while.   Fans have not caught up in their thinks to the development that Elias and staff have done and are doing with these players.  Many of them don't need to be replaced to be part  of a contending team.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The point is when there are 15 or 16 pitchers on the staff Wojo,  Milone and LeBlanc don't have to do any more than go through the lineup twice.    4 2/3 innings is really all that is needed.   The relief staff looks much improved.  I think we have to give the analytics and coaching staff a lot of credit for taking marginal pitchers and improving them with knowledge, physical adjustments and confidence  to make them better.

I also think that the position players are much improved.   Ruiz added 10 pounds and changing his swing,   Alberto hitting righties.  Hays in center.  Santander being full time in right.  The addition of Iglesias as a leader. The two catcher  hitting.   The guys are not just swinging for the fences.  They are trusting each other to have productive at bats.   If Elias will just move Davis to the bench, Nunez to 1B and use several players at DH, I can see move improvement to come.  Especially with promotion of Mountcastle.

Nothing is for sure.  But there is more of a chance of a winning team then we have seen in a  while.   Fans have not caught up in their thinks to the development that Elias and staff have done and are doing with these players.  Many of them don't need to be replaced to be part  of a contending team.  

I think you are really overrating a lot of the players on this team.

They aren’t good.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are really overrating a lot of the players on this team.

They aren’t good.

As I said, fans have not caught up in their thinking to the improvement that many of these players have made.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I said, fans have not caught up in their thinking to the improvement that many of these players have made.

You calling me a slow thinker?

Care to show this slow thinker what sustainable changes in peripherals makes a fast thinker like you sure these gains are permanent?

[Number5]

59 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He's well aware that expanded playoffs just means that 1/16th of playoff teams will now win the whole thing.  On day one of the playoffs an average team has a 6% chance of winning a ring, and the O's ain't an average playoff team.  If everything works out brilliantly they'll be something like the 16th seed.

No rational mind would throw away a rebuilding season for a small chance at a getting to a series of playoffs they'll have less than a 5% chance of winning.

So you're saying there's a chance!   

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I said, fans have not caught up in their thinking to the improvement that many of these players have made.

Or maybe, just maybe, you are allowing a SSS and your optimism to distort the so called improvements?

 

 

[drjohnnyfeva]

I like how this thread is developing.  I like the enthusiasm of the OP, but I'm still a little dubious on how good this team really is.  But there are definitely players who are playing well, maybe better than they ever have.  Which begs the question, do we hang on and chalk it up to the rebuild is working OR do they offload some of the guys who are doing well to get a better return (or any return at all) than we otherwise might have?  I think that will be telling about what Elias and the rest really think of these guys.

Certainly Cobb is a different case merely for payroll savings, but some of the other guys, Santander, Nunez, Iglesias... do we stand pat hoping (thinking/knowing) the rebuild is becoming fruitful or do we deal if offered?  To me, that's the question. 

Chasing a Playoff spot would be really fun and these guys are pretty entertaining to watch, but if it's a mirage that could be a big setback.  How the team proceeds to the trade deadline will be telling.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or maybe, just maybe, you are allowing a SSS and your optimism to distort the so called improvements?

 

 

That's slow thinker talk.  Obviously we can't process information as quickly.

[eddie83]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I said, fans have not caught up in their thinking to the improvement that many of these players have made.

It’s going to take a lot more than 14 games worth of data to prove to people they are as improved as you think they are. 

If these guys are actually the real deal we would all be ecstatic. 

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You calling me a slow thinker?

Care to show this slow thinker what sustainable changes in peripherals makes a fast thinker like you sure these gains are permanent?

The improvement the players have made, the analytics the team is using, the coaching staff's ability to help players get better,  the players realizing their ability to succeed and being more confident all add up to an environment where the team is moving passed past history IMO.

I believe in what I am seeing.   Others are not slow thinker,  they are not convinced yet.