The next 12 games are crucial

[Bubble Buddy]

I think the next 12 games that precede a 4 game set against NYY are pretty favorable.  

Normally I'd be content with going 6-6 to get to 18-18 (and depending on how far we slide here, I may be), but I'm concerned that 8 games against the Yankees paired with 3 against ATL and then 4 against TB could be a killer stretch. 

I think we need to go at least 7-5 over the next 12. That would give us a chance to go 6-9 against NYY, TB, ATL and head into the final 6 games against BOS and TOR right around .500 with a chance at one of those wild cards. 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Bubble Buddy

[Aristotelian]

Yeah, I would not have said that the Toronto series was "must win" but getting swept is a pretty devastating outcome. Our Fangraphs playoff odds are under 50% now, so a sub .500 stretch now would probably stick a fork in us. 

[Sports Guy]

Right now, the Os are in the final WC spot.  
 

But the upcoming schedule is pretty difficult.

The next 4 games vs Boston, who is terrible right now, are pretty crucial if the Os want to be a playoff team.  If you have a poor series vs them, things could spiral down quickly.  

 

[Bubble Buddy]

After salvaging a split with the Red Sox, I'm hoping to grab at least one game from Tampa. 

And with the surge that the White Sox have made, it would set up a really interesting 4 game set against the Blue Jays. In such a short season, it does look like it will be the two division rivals battling for that last wild card spot, although much can still change as we've seen losing streaks and winning streaks across MLB from contenders and pretenders. 

I was hoping for 7-5 in the next 12. We are 2-2. Would love to find a way to go 5-3 in the next 8. Could be tough. I think the most likely path would be 1-2 against TB, 3-1 against TOR, and 1-1 against NYM. 

Hopefully the boys get some good rest today. 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Bubble Buddy

[Number5]

17 minutes ago, Bubble Buddy said:

Would love to find a way to go 5-3 in the next 8. Could be tough. I think the most likely path would be 1-2 against TB, 3-1 against TOR, and 1-1 against NYM. 

That would be 9 games.  5-4.  Just sayin'.

[Bubble Buddy]

22 minutes ago, Number5 said:

That would be 9 games.  5-4.  Just sayin'.

Whoops, thanks. I think I didn't add it up correctly the first time. Was a 13 game stretch. 5-4 would leave us 1 game over .500 headed into harder part of schedule. 

[bpilktree]

The Orioles are currently 20th in percent good make playoffs behind the two division leaders in each.  The White Sox, Blue Jays and somehow the Angels.  Who have worst record in league which makes no sense.  They have to go 21-10 just to get to .500.

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

The Orioles are currently 20th in percent good make playoffs behind the two division leaders in each.  The White Sox, Blue Jays and somehow the Angels.  Who have worst record in league which makes no sense.  They have to go 21-10 just to get to .500.

Which projections?  Fangraphs has the Angels at 8%, the O's at 18%.

[Bubble Buddy]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Which projections?  Fangraphs has the Angels at 8%, the O's at 18%.

What is ROS W %? And then is SOS foward looking or what we've already played? We've either been through the toughest in the American League or have the toughest remaining. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Bubble Buddy said:

What is ROS W %? And then is SOS foward looking or what we've already played? We've either been through the toughest in the American League or have the toughest remaining. 

Rest of schedule winning percentage.  Basically, projection of the rest of the schedule's results. I think SOS is rest of schedule.

[Bubble Buddy]

24 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Rest of schedule winning percentage.  Basically, projection of the rest of the schedule's results. I think SOS is rest of schedule.

Well, this is pretty grim, http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos: 

Our SOS thus far has been.466, 3rd worst in MLB. And then our projected SOS is gonna be the toughest in the AL to finish out the season as it stands right now. I'll still root like hell in the Toronto season if we can avoid a sweep against Tampa, but those are some rough numbers that contribute to our our more conservative playoff projections by Fangraphs. 

 

 

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Bubble Buddy

[SteveA]

11 minutes ago, Bubble Buddy said:

Well, this is pretty grim, http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos: 

Our SOS thus far has been.466, 3rd worst in MLB. And then our projected SOS is gonna be the toughest in the AL to finish out the season as it stands right now. I'll still root like hell in the Toronto season if we can avoid a sweep against Tampa, but those are some rough numbers that contribute to our our more conservative playoff projections by Fangraphs. 

 

 

 

"Avoid a sweep vs Tampa"?   THEY have to show they can beat us ONCE before I worry about avoiding a sweep!

[Bubble Buddy]

Just now, SteveA said:

"Avoid a sweep vs Tampa"?   THEY have to show they can beat us ONCE before I worry about avoiding a sweep!

Fair enough. I like to set my expectations low with a team like this.. lol. Go O's. 

[Moose Milligan]

We're good on the road for some reason.  I like our chances in Tampa. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

"Avoid a sweep vs Tampa"?   THEY have to show they can beat us ONCE before I worry about avoiding a sweep!

It's not about Tampa, it's about getting wins, period. Right now it looks like 7 teams with >90% probability of making the playoffs. That leaves us and the Blue Jays with about 45% each chance of getting the last spot. There are a few scenarios of other teams sneaking in or one of the power teams dropping out, but mostly it is about getting more wins than the Blue Jays.