ESPN's midseason All-Stars

[Moose Milligan]

Behind a paywall https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29738848/midseason-mlb-all-stars-american-league-national-league

First of all, new WHIPS DIPS and CHIPS metric that this guy is introducing called AXE.  

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The short explanation: AXE is meant to create a consensus rating of other bottom-line metrics, with additional context added based on probability statistics. The rating is expressed as a three-digit integer, where 100 is exactly average. (All of that is explained in the link.) This year's top AXE figure is 149; the worst is 66. Each player's primary position is considered to be the spot at which he has played the most games this season. A player is only eligible be selected to one of these teams at his primary position, though each league also has a utility slot reserved for a roving player.

Let's get onto the teams. (AXE ratings indicated in parenthesis.)

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RF: Anthony Santander (128), Baltimore Orioles. While Aaron Judge 's injury might have opened the door for Santander, he's a worthy pick on the strength of one of the AL's most stunning performances. Santander has hit .277/.323/.639 with 10 homers and 11 doubles for the surprising Orioles, while driving in nearly a run per game (27 RBIs over 29 games).

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C: Pedro Severino (121), Baltimore Orioles. Severino doesn't grade out as well defensively as other AL backstops, but he has mashed his way to the top spot at the position. It's really not close; Severino is well ahead of second-place Austin Nola (114), while the third-place AXE rating is his own backup, Chance Sisco (113). Severino has been a backup for so long that it's hard to remember that he's still just 27 years old. Sure, it might be a fluke, but a .981 OPS speaks for itself. Severino also gets the largest win probability added boost to his rating of any catcher and ranks fifth in the AL overall by the baseball-reference.com version of the statistic.

And...of course...

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CF: Mike Yastrzemski (152), San Francisco Giants. Yaz has played a little over half his games in center field, so he's probably more of a utility outfielder than a true center fielder. No one is likely to complain about giving him this spot, though. If his age-29 season seemed like a wonderful story and the latest chapter in the ongoing saga of 21st century second-chance players going off, what is his age-30 season? He has hit for average (.293), hit for power (.612 slugging), leads the NL in walks, has three triples, has well above-average defensive metrics and has lapped every other hitter in the majors in win probability added. It's as if he has changed skill sets with Christian Yelich. Yaz has been the majors' best player in the early going.

 

[eddie83]

I thought for sure Yaz would come crashing down this year. 

[TommyPickles]

It is pretty surprising that Severino has been the best hitting catcher in the AL...

[TommyPickles]

How about Nelson Cruz too?

Dude is 40 years old and leads the AL with a 1.088 OPS and 11 homers.

[HowAboutThat]

It’s pretty clear that Yaz should’ve been given at least a chance. On a 47 win team, there was absolutely no reason not to regardless of how old he was. We gave David Williams six at bats, and I’m sure he remembers everyone, even though five of them were strikeouts.

Every team gives up on guys who go on to be outstanding elsewhere, with the new regime, that will hopefully be much less frequent.

[MurphDogg]

32 minutes ago, Philip said:

It’s pretty clear that Yaz should’ve been given at least a chance. On a 47 win team, there was absolutely no reason not to regardless of how old he was. We gave David Williams six at bats, and I’m sure he remembers everyone, even though five of them were strikeouts.

Every team gives up on guys who go on to be outstanding elsewhere, with the new regime, that will hopefully be much less frequent.

You can't give every 28 year-old outfielder that OPS's .740 at AA and .750 at AAA a chance. There just are too many of them and aren't enough MLB at-bats available. I wish Yaz well, but blaming the Orioles for his breakout is silly.

[makoman]

8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

You can't give every 28 year-old outfielder that OPS's .740 at AA and .750 at AAA a chance. There just are too many of them and aren't enough MLB at-bats available. I wish Yaz well, but blaming the Orioles for his breakout is silly.

This, and also we shouldn’t forget that the O’s got the two guys on this list for nothing and for nothing but a roster spot. It happens. 

[murph]

9 minutes ago, makoman said:

This, and also we shouldn’t forget that the O’s got the two guys on this list for nothing and for nothing but a roster spot. It happens. 

And the Giants were absolutely desperate for Outfield help at the time, Yaz probably doesn't get the chance most anywhere else. 

[rudyrooster]

19 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

You can't give every 28 year-old outfielder that OPS's .740 at AA and .750 at AAA a chance. There just are too many of them and aren't enough MLB at-bats available. I wish Yaz well, but blaming the Orioles for his breakout is silly.

They could've at least given him a "cup of coffee" callup.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

They could've at least given him a "cup of coffee" callup.

Why?

As I've said before if his last name had been Smith would anyone had been hankering for him to have been called up?  If he hadn't done anything with the Giants would anyone be hankering for him to have been called up?

I would not be surprised to find out that the 2019 Norfolk team had had an equivalent player that no one was championing.

[Moose Milligan]

36 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

You can't give every 28 year-old outfielder that OPS's .740 at AA and .750 at AAA a chance. There just are too many of them and aren't enough MLB at-bats available. I wish Yaz well, but blaming the Orioles for his breakout is silly.

You can when they essentially replaced him with Dwight Smith Jr.  I'd be inclined to agree with you if Elias had gone out and picked up a franchise cornerstone somehow but he didn't.  

[bpilktree]

2 Orioles on the team and 4 ex Orioles on the list.  

[DrungoHazewood]

35 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

They could've at least given him a "cup of coffee" callup.

And what would that have changed?  If he went 6-for-20 do you pencil him in the lineup for 2019?

Corn is spot on.  If his name had been Floyd Jones or Mason Williams nobody would really have cared.  If you sort the 2018 Tides by OPS you get Andrew Susac, Stevie Wilkerson, Renato Nunez, Mike Yastrzemski, Pedro Alvarez, Joe Rickard, and Cedric Mullins.  That's less than a 100-point spread and Yaz is in the middle, basically the same player/age/OPS as Joey Rickard, who people couldn't wait to be done with.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And what would that have changed?  If he went 6-for-20 do you pencil him in the lineup for 2019?

Corn is spot on.  If his name had been Floyd Jones or Mason Williams nobody would really have cared.  If you sort the 2018 Tides by OPS you get Andrew Susac, Stevie Wilkerson, Renato Nunez, Mike Yastrzemski, Pedro Alvarez, Joe Rickard, and Cedric Mullins.  That's less than a 100-point spread and Yaz is in the middle, basically the same player/age/OPS as Joey Rickard, who people couldn't wait to be done with.

Yeah, unfortunately Corn is right.  No one would have cared about Yaz if he had a different last name.  

[DrungoHazewood]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You can when they essentially replaced him with Dwight Smith Jr.  I'd be inclined to agree with you if Elias had gone out and picked up a franchise cornerstone somehow but he didn't.  

When the O's picked up Smith his career AAA OPS in 800 PAs was about .750.  At the same time Yaz' was just about the same, and he was two years older.