Guesses on Sabathia's 2009 contract?

[Migrant Redbird]

I'm guessing that he'll get around $20M per year for 5-7 years.

I wondered if the Cardinals might even get into that bidding, as they did on Mike Hampton's $121M contract back after the 2000 season. Supposedly, Mike took the Rockies offer "because the schools were better in Denver."

However, the Cardinals are apparently close to an agreement with Kyle Lohse, 15-6, 3.78, 200 IP. Rumor has it that Lohse will be getting $12M per year, which might be enough to ensure the Cards couldn't participate in the Sabathia sweepstakes even if they had intended to.

My guess is that the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs all compete to outbid the Brewers for Sabathia's services.

With Hill, Harden, and Gallagher around to back up Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly, and Marquis, the Cubs might not be interested in Sabathia, unless they thought it was the only way to keep him from re-signing with the Brewers.

The Reds look pretty solid in 2009, with Volquez, Cueto, Harang, and Arroyo, especially if Homer Bailey finally develops into what everyone has been expecting of him.

The Brewers look very ordinary if they don't bring back Sabathia, especially if Sheets also is lost to free agency or injuries in 2009. David Bush and Manny Parra could be on the cusp and might step up to support Suppan if he has a better season in 2009, but that likely wouldn't be nearly enough without Sabathia and/or Sheets.

[Crazysilver03]

It would be kind of hard for Gallagher to back up Harden since they were traded for each other.

[Migrant Redbird]

It would be kind of hard for Gallagher to back up Harden since they were traded for each other.

Oops! Thanks for the correction.

[Mackus]

He'll almost certainly be playing for the Yankees next season. He'll get a bigger contract than Santana got, open market and all.

[Mad Mark]

Isn't Sabathia on record as wanting to 1) stay in the NL and 2) play on the Left Coast?

[Mackus]

Isn't Sabathia on record as wanting to 1) stay in the NL and 2) play on the Left Coast?

I don't think he's as big of a lock to go solely to the highest bidder like Tex is, but he certainly isn't going to write off 80% of his potential suitors just because they don't play in the NL West.

[Ruzious]

My guess is 6/150.

[brvn52]

My guess is 6/150.

Agreed. Maybe 7/150. He's gonna get the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history - and he owes it all to being dealt to Milwaukee for a half season.

[TyCobb]

6/114

I don't think teams aren't going to risk the money anymore.

[Frobby]

The Zito contract ought to scare people - but it probably wont. Sabathia is a beast, and his youth and size give him a better chance than most of actually paying off for the next 6+ years. I'd say 7/$150 mm won't shock me.

[Migrant Redbird]

Isn't Sabathia on record as wanting to 1) stay in the NL and 2) play on the Left Coast?

I don't know about the "on-the-record" part, but Sabathia is (justifiably) proud of his hitting ability (.229/.229/.333/.562 with Milwaukee, .261/.270/.398/.668 career) and would like to continue having a chance to hit (not to mention the offensive advantage it gives him over most opposing starters). However, I only expect that to be a tie breaker if the money and other factors are close to being equal.

I can't see the Padres having the money to go after Sabathia. If Peavey and Chris Young are both healthy, they might not need him.

The Dodgers and Giants have been recently burned on Schmidt and Zito, so they would probably be too leery of long term contracts to outbid the Yankees or Mets.

I can't see 6/150, though. That's A-Rod money, and A-Rod is a lot better bet to stay healthy long enough to earn it.

[sangar]

I don't know about the "on-the-record" part, but Sabathia is (justifiably) proud of his hitting ability (.229/.229/.333/.562 with Milwaukee, .261/.270/.398/.668 career) and would like to continue having a chance to hit (not to mention the offensive advantage it gives him over most opposing starters). However, I only expect that to be a tie breaker if the money and other factors are close to being equal.

I can't see the Padres having the money to go after Sabathia. If Peavey and Chris Young are both healthy, they might not need him.

The Dodgers and Giants have been recently burned on Schmidt and Zito, so they would probably be too leery of long term contracts to outbid the Yankees or Mets.

I can't see 6/150, though. That's A-Rod money, and A-Rod is a lot better bet to stay healthy long enough to earn it.

The Dodgers are very interested, have Lowe and Penny coming off the books and have money to burn.

[scOtt]

$100,000 per IP.

I know it's against the rules but who wants to risk all that money on a horse that's been ridden hard put up wet?

[terporiolefan]

This may sound unbelievable, but today at work, I helped the wife of one of CC's agents, who seemed just as involved in the business as her husband. We talked about a lot of players to which she had a lot to say. I asked her her thoughts on where he would end up. Without hesitation and with full confidence to what she was speaking about, she said "Dodgers."

I said, "I heard he wanted to be in California, but I worry the Yankees will offer him whatever it takes to go there."

"Nope. Don't worry. Even if their offer is less than others, if the Dodgers are involved, that's where he'll be."

She then added in typical agent speak: "We're shooting for 30 (million) a year."

[Mackus]

$100,000 per IP.

I know it's against the rules but who wants to risk all that money on a horse that's been ridden hard put up wet?

That's actually not against the rules. You could give him a base of the league minimum and then give him $100,000 for every inning pitched.