Roch on the OF situation

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, beantownrefugee said:

Pains me to say this,  but there is a chance the O's don't tender Trey a contract.  He's ARB-2 for next season, cost $4.75M this season (times 60/162).  It would be a difficult decision from a personal and PR point of view.  But if it doesn't look probable he'll play much next season, Trey might not be tendered.

I imagine they'll agree somewhere.  This isn't later Arb Villar with a ton of counting stats driving the arb process to misrepresent his actual on field value.  There's also the inspirational Willis Reed thing we can hope to get on a legitimately good 2022 team he could be part of.

[wildcard]

I don't think the O's have too many outfielders.   What they have is too many 1B/DHs.

Santander -  Is the O's right fielder.   He hits. Has a good arm.  And though he does look that mobile he gets to a lot of balls.   He is a solid all around corner outfielder.

Hays - Though injury prone and is not a proven major league hitter yet, he has to be given every chance to be the starting center field.  He covers a lot of ground and has good instincts.  The has an above average arm.   I think there is hope that the can be a very good all around center fielder that hits if he can shake the injury bug.

Stewart -  Is earning himself a place in the lineup with his bat.  He is not a great outfielder but has a chance to be a  good outfielder.  He has an average arm for leftfield.   And he has average speed in spite of his size.  When the guy is hot he is a force.  Probably moves to DH/Backup corner OFer when Diaz is ready.

Mullins - is a backup centerfield who can play left field.   He is mostly a backup because his arm is weak.   Good backup for Hays.

Diaz - will not be a factor until July 2021.   He has not played a day at AAA yet.   He can be cycled in when Mancini is cycled out next year.  More on that in a minute.  He has a good arm and can run. He will probably take over a corner outfield spot kicking Stewart to DH/backup corner outfielder next July.

Mountcastle - Is not an outfielder IMO.  He has no arm.  If the O's want to be a division winner vs the Yankees and Tampa they have to be able to play defense.  Both teams will not stop at third base challenging Mountcastle and Mullins arms.   Neither  of the two players win that challenge.  Mountcastle is a 1B/DH.  Probably beginning  next year as DH and moving to 1B mid season.   Probably  good at either spot.

Mancini - is no longer an outfielder with the players the O's  have.  He should begin 2021 as the O's 1B and  be traded in July if Elias holds to his Tampa's cycle model (along with Alberto).  He will be a year and half from FA next July.    That will open up 1B for Mountcastle.   I think Mancini will agree to a 20% cut in his salary for next season.

McKenna - has not even hit well at AA yet.  He is at least a year away for the majors. Too far away to worry about.

Nunez -  Should be traded over the winter.  He is the odd man out.  He will not bring back a lot. Probably a prospect or two.

Davis - needs to released by November when the O's set their roster to the winter meetings if not before then.

Ruiz - Has a 965 OPS in September.  I am waiting until the end of the season to assess him.

 

[weams]

11 minutes ago, beantownrefugee said:

Agreed the contract you suggest would be most optimal.  

Other piece of the puzzle with Trey would be to shift him to 1B, cut Davis, so that Trey wouldn't be part of the OF playing time calculus.

His had spread to the lymph nodes. He had intensive six months of Chemotherapy. 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think the O's have too many outfielders.   What they have is too many 1B/DHs.

Santander -  Is the O's right fielder.   He hits. Has a good arm.  And though he does look that mobile he gets to a lot of balls.   He is a solid all around corner outfielder.

Hays - Though injury prone and is not a proven major league hitter yet, he has to be given every chance to be the starting center field.  He covers a lot of ground and has good instincts.  The has a above average arm.   I think there is hope that the can be a very good all around center fielder that hits if he can shake the injury bug.

Stewart -  Is earning himself a place in the lineup with his bat.  He is not a great outfielder but has a chance to be a  good outfielder.  He has an average arm for leftfield.   And he has average speed in spite of his size.  When the guy is hot he is a force.  Probably moves to DH/Backup corner OFer when Diaz is ready.

Mullins - is a backup centerfield who can play left field.   Mostly because of his arm is weak.   Good backup for Hays.

Diaz - will not be a factor until July 2021.   He has not played a day at AAA yet.   He can be cycled in when Mancini is cycled out next year.  More on that in a minute.  He has a good arm and can run. He will probably take over a corner outfield spot kicking Stewart to DH/backup corner outfielder next July

Mountcastle - Is not an outfielder IMO.  He has no arm.  If the O's want to be a division winner vs the Yankees and Tampa they have to be able to play defense.  Both teams will not stop at third base challenging Mountcastle and Mullins arms.   Neither  of the two players win that challenge.  Mountcastle is a 1B/DH.  Probably beginning  next year as DH and moving to 1B mid season.   Probably  good as either spot.

Mancini - is no longer an outfielder with the players the O's  have.  He should begin 2021 as the O's 1B and  be traded in July if Elias holds to his Tampa's cycle model (along with Alberto).  He will be a year and half from FA next July.    That will open up 1B for Mountcastle.  

McKenna - has not even hit well at AA yet.  He is at least a year away for the majors. Too far away to worry about.

Nunez -  Should be traded over the winter.  He is the odd man out.  He will not bring back a lot. Probably a prospect or two.

Davis - needs to released by November when the O's set their roster to the winter meetings if not before then.

 

Mountcastle won't be the first baseman. 

[HowAboutThat]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Plenty of players have real value.  Any number of the young arms, young OFers, etc...

 

I was speaking of the specific guys in question of course.

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, weams said:

Mountcastle won't be the first baseman. 

Why?

[HowAboutThat]

50 minutes ago, weams said:

Mountcastle won't be the first baseman. 

Why not? Everything @wildcardsaid is correct. You have to find a place for your hot bats, but if you have a better defender in LF and you can find a place elsewhere for MC, that’s the best choice.

I don’t know who is better between Stewart and MC: MC looks OK at first glance, but his throws are neither strong nor accurate, and his routes are bad. I haven’t seen much of either player, but I’d rather see each somewhere else.

get rid of Nunez and Davis, and work from there.

[MurphDogg]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why?

If he was going to be the first baseman next year, he would be the first baseman now. He is going to have every opportunity to succeed or fail as a left-fielder.

The belief that he should be declared not a left-fielder at this point is not a widely held belief, in fact as far as I know, it is only held by you.

You don't move young players to easier defensive positions until you have to. Maximizing your defensive efficiency in the short term is secondary to maximizing Mountcastle's long-term value to the team.

Having extra outfielders is a luxury that is not best solved by moving the youngest, most valuable outfielder to a less valuable, more easy to fill position.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

If he was going to be the first baseman next year, he would be the first baseman now. He is going to have every opportunity to succeed or fail as a left-fielder.

The belief that he should be declared not a left-fielder at this point is not a widely held belief, in fact as far as I know, it is only held by you.

I'm pretty use to being the only one with a certain opinion.  But people usually come my way after a while.

Mountcastle is a left fielder now because that is what they prepared him to be this season.  With Davis at first base after a good ST 1.0.   They were not going to change MC mid stream this year.   But with the winter and ST ahead of him, I think they will prepare for 1B next season.

[weams]

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

Why not? Everything @wildcardsaid is correct. You have to find a place for your hot bats, but if you have a better defender in LF and you can find a place elsewhere for MC, that’s the best choice.

I don’t know who is better between Stewart and MC: MC looks OK at first glance, but his throws are neither strong nor accurate, and his routes are bad. I haven’t seen much of either player, but I’d rather see each somewhere else.

get rid of Nunez and Davis, and work from there.

Mountcastle will continue to train and play in left field. 

[weams]

12 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

If he was going to be the first baseman next year, he would be the first baseman now. He is going to have every opportunity to succeed or fail as a left-fielder.

The belief that he should be declared not a left-fielder at this point is not a widely held belief, in fact as far as I know, it is only held by you.

You don't move young players to easier defensive positions until you have to. Maximizing your defensive efficiency in the short term is secondary to maximizing Mountcastle's long-term value to the team.

Having extra outfielders is a luxury that is not best solved by moving the youngest, most valuable outfielder to a less valuable, more easy to fill position.

Thank you.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 But people usually come my way after a while.

 

Not that I've ever observed. 

[eddie83]

Side note. Somebody needs to start up game thread. 

I was bad luck yesterday 

[eddie83]

I don’t think this is an issue until Diaz is ready. They can explore what they have in Mountcastle. No need to make a decision now. As others have said Mullins is more of a bench player. I would not deal Santander myself. Switch hitters with his skill set are not easy to find. Do I think he is a lock to be good?, no but he has a chance. Mancini doesn’t even play into this, he was a 1B who played OF due to need. 

A creative manager using DH can give all these guys at bats next year. Nunez could be moved as well it needed.  

[Sports Guy]

CF has to be figured out.  Mullins isn’t the answer.

Hays could be but health is a big concern.
 

Mckenna may be ready  defensively but can’t hit.