Guthrie for Hardy

[Sports Guy]

Which is exactly why we shouldn't.

No one is saying we should.

[Hallas]

I agree with this...I think AM says no to this deal personally...I just think it would be a huge mistake to do so.

I disagree with you here.

In terms of long-term potential, the success of the deal can't be counted solely in terms of each players' performance if the Orioles cannot get some level of adequate pitching. The detriment to having replacement-level or worse pitching is greater than the detriment to having a replacement-level position player. Additionally, the aging curve for pitchers is not very consistent like it is for positional players, so while he is bound to get more expensive (and, like all pitchers, is a perpetual injury risk), his future performance cannot be counted on to decline in the same fashion as for hitters.

I think that the only way it makes sense for the O's to do this trade is to either pray for some good luck with their prospects, or get an AJ or some other marquee pitcher. And I'm not big on relying on luck, especially when it comes to the O's.

[Sports Guy]

Oh there's no doubt about that.

However, imo, Guthrie is worth more alone than the entirety of the Miggi package. AM traded Miggi because he had to basically; in exchange he recieved a solid left fielder and a bunch of questionable young arms.

There isn't much questionable about Guthrie for the next four years- other than the ones that exist for all pitchers.

This is correct.

I don't disagree that the deal could possibly need to be expanded...Perhaps Sherrill also goes with Guthrie and we get back a solid, albeit lower level prospect.

But the primary pieces would be Guthrie for Hardy.

Teams hold onto cheap, established pitching more than anything and the Brewers seem to want Escobar at SS(even though they do have other options with Hardy).

[Sports Guy]

I disagree with you here.

In terms of long-term potential, the success of the deal can't be counted solely in terms of each players' performance if the Orioles cannot get some level of adequate pitching. The detriment to having replacement-level or worse pitching is greater than the detriment to having a replacement-level position player. Additionally, the aging curve for pitchers is not very consistent like it is for positional players, so while he is bound to get more expensive (and, like all pitchers, is a perpetual injury risk), his future performance cannot be counted on to decline in the same fashion as for hitters.

I think that the only way it makes sense for the O's to do this trade is to either pray for some good luck with their prospects, or get an AJ or some other marquee pitcher. And I'm not big on relying on luck, especially when it comes to the O's.

Whether you have Guthrie or not, if everyone else is replacement level(for pitching), we aren't contending.

So, give me the better player who fits the bigger long term need...I have very little doubt that Hardy ends up being more valuable than Guthrie over the next 4-5 years.

[El Gordo]

The Tejada trade was a little skewed though, we took garbage for quantity over quality.

Sarfate, Scott, and Albers are not garbage and Patton is rehabing well and could be part of our rotation in '10. Hardy is worth a lot more than Miggi was last season, under any circumstances, so he will easily bring back more than just Gutherie. I love Guts, but he has question marks as well, he's not that young, has stamina questions, and needs another year of sub 4.00 ERA, 180 + innings to truly establish his value, IMO.

[mweb]

Considering Guthrie is controlled for longer, I don't think I do that trade. So I'm not just thinking about 2009, I'm thinking long term with this, and that favors Guthrie imo.

[El Gordo]

Considering Guthrie is controlled for longer, I don't think I do that trade. So I'm not just thinking about 2009, I'm thinking long term with this, and that favors Guthrie imo.

I agree, we need Guthrie and more SP, much more than a SS that we will be forced to give up SP to get.

[Ruzious]

It'd be great to get Hardy, but trading away our only competent SP to get him makes zero sense.

[Flosman]

The Giants may trade Cain for Fielder...doubt they do it for Hardy.

Guthrie is a ML ready guy that steps in right now for them.

No team is going to give up an established, cheap #2 guy AND a top pitching prospect for Hardy.

This is where you lose me. I do not think us adding to Guthrie should be acceptible to the O's. I do think that straight up would have to be given serious consideration.

[Spoonless]

I voted no. I know you're saying it's a "move for the future," but that partially hinges on us extending Hardy. Since you're basically saying 2009 doesn't matter (at least in this scenario), throw that year out and you're then trading 3 years of Guthrie for 1 year of Hardy. If Hardy walks, sure we get prospects, but we then have to wait for them develop. I think I'd rather sign a stopgap for 2 years and court Hardy in free agency. I'd say our chances at signing him as a FA aren't any worse than our chances at extending him.

[OsLuvrInKy]

Again, are you only going to look at this based on 2009 or for the next 5 years?

If I knew we had Hardy under control for 5 years before trading I would say yes...

Two years of control on Hardy for Gut's the answer would be a resounding no!

[Enjoy Terror]

You all are missing a big point. It will take more than Guthrie to get JJ. We will have to give up one of our MiL SP prospects as well. Remember the reason he is being traded is because MIL needs ML ready SP to replace Sheets and CC. We need SP in numbers to compete in the near future. We don't need an All Star level SS to do so.

I think you missed the point. The hypothetical is Guthrie for Hardy and would you do it. Not whether the trade is fair, and intangibles aside.

[tywright]

In a vacuum, of course you trade Guthrie for Hardy. However, the intangibles that Guthrie provides and the lack of MLB-ready pitching, Guthrie is probably the most untouchable player on the O's roster.

[Moose Milligan]

No.

Sorry SG, I know we need a SS....but we need pitching more.

[davearm]

The O's are in no position to trade Guthrie unless the deal is just so good that you have to have it repeated because you couldn't believe it the first time.

This isn't it.