Why would a team with the resources to build a core through FA not do so?

[JTrea81]

If you recall, we had the same opportunity to trade for Beckett by taking on Lowell and his salary. What a terrible move that would have been, huh?

It was Burnett and Lowell not Beckett and Lowell. I think at the time there was no thought that Beckett would actually be available...

But still this hurts... a lot.

The Marlins actively tried to make that happen with personnel changes. The were set to acquire pitchers Jorge Julio, Steve Kline, Hayden Penn and Sidney Ponson from the Orioles for Burnett and Lowell. The Marlins were then going to ship Ponson to the Rangers for a player speculated to be Richard Hidalgo.

The Orioles could have made that trade, and been a heck of a lot better off. But it's refusing to take risks that have been partially to blame for the downfall of the organization.

When everybody says don't trade the young pitching, just look at Hayden Penn, who was at peak trade value when he was 20. I doubt he ever approaches that trade value now. Some of these pitchers will peak in the minor leagues and it's up to the Orioles to identify who they think will cut it in the majors as a SP out of our prospects, and who won't and then to deal those that won't while their trade value is still high. The Red Sox have been pretty good at doing this as well. Pavano and Armas together haven't had the career that Pedro Martinez has had.

[FutureOwner]

It was Burnett and Lowell not Beckett and Lowell. I think at the time there was no thought that Beckett would actually be available...

But still this hurts... a lot.

The Orioles could have made that trade, and been a heck of a lot better off. But it's refusing to take risks that have been partially to blame for the downfall of the organization.

When everybody says don't trade the young pitching, just look at Hayden Penn, who was at peak trade value when he was 20. I doubt he ever approaches that trade value now. Some of these pitchers will peak in the minor leagues and it's up to the Orioles to identify who they think will cut it in the majors as a SP out of our prospects, and who won't and then to deal those that won't while their trade value is still high. The Red Sox have been pretty good at doing this as well. Pavano and Armas together haven't had the career that Pedro Martinez has had.

This is exactly why Id consider trading Tillman and Arrieta if he brings back Greinke. You sign Burnett and go:

1. Guthrie

2. Burnett

3. Greinke

4. Cabrera

5. Olson/Liz/etc

If the offense is as good as this past season you are a lot closer to competing. I dont expect both Tillman and Arrieta to become as good as Greinke, Im hopeful but its more likely that neither do than both do. Then youve got Matusz hopefully ready in a year or so to replace Cabrera.

I can see why we wouldnt make that trade but I certainly wouldnt blame them if they did.

[Eight]

Again people speak of the Rays "model", but what is that model? As far as I can see, this is what they've done:

-Amassed an excellent farm system, due in no small part to drafting inside of the top four eight times in ten years, never lower than eighth in their existence while also having four number one picks. I don't think that anyone - or at least not anyone here - that the Orioles should use the draft (and more importantly, to spend) to acquire premium talent.

-Been dormant in the international free agent market. The only international signing of note that played for them this season was Akinori Iwamura, a Japanese veteran. They actually have shockingly few Latin American players on their team. The few players that they do have are guys like Carlos Pena (scrap heap) and Navarro (trade) who they didn't sign as amateurs. In fact just ONE of the Rays' preseason top 20 prospects, as rated by John Sickels, was signed as an international free agent. Certainly in this regard, I think we can all agree that the Orioles must do much better than the Rays.

-Been nonexistant forces for premium or even above average talent in the FA market. The best FA acquisitions on their team are mediocre position players such as Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd along with veteran relievers such as Troy Percival or Trever Miller. One would hope and expect that the Orioles would use Free Agency to their advantage more than the Rays have given their resources.

-Pulled off a number of good, mainly under the radar trades (i.e. not blockbusters) to improve their team. Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Ben Zobrist, Chad Bradford, Dioner Navarro and Dan Wheeler were all acquired via trade, in most cases without the Rays giving up anything long-term (the exception being Delmon Young).

So what is the Rays model? Build almost entirely through the draft, supplementing that with very low cost free agents and trades?

Of course the Orioles should use the draft and trades to their advantage, but the Rays model doesn't include any activity at all in the free agent market, domestic or international, which the Orioles, having more resources, can and should make a vital part of their roadmap to success.

[zff4]

Again people speak of the Rays "model", but what is that model?

I'll tell you one aspect of the Rays model that is unique: Stu Sternberg, the managing director of the ownership group, in essence, the face of ownership, greets the fans as they come through the turnstiles and wanders the park talking to fans. And listens to them. From a Baltimore perspective, that sounds like science fiction of the most imaginative variety.

[allstar1579]

Again people speak of the Rays "model", but what is that model? As far as I can see, this is what they've done:

-Amassed an excellent farm system, due in no small part to drafting inside of the top four eight times in ten years, never lower than eighth in their existence while also having four number one picks. I don't think that anyone - or at least not anyone here - that the Orioles should use the draft (and more importantly, to spend) to acquire premium talent.

-Been dormant in the international free agent market. The only international signing of note that played for them this season was Akinori Iwamura, a Japanese veteran. They actually have shockingly few Latin American players on their team. The few players that they do have are guys like Carlos Pena (scrap heap) and Navarro (trade) who they didn't sign as amateurs. In fact just ONE of the Rays' preseason top 20 prospects, as rated by John Sickels, was signed as an international free agent. Certainly in this regard, I think we can all agree that the Orioles must do much better than the Rays.

-Been nonexistant forces for premium or even above average talent in the FA market. The best FA acquisitions on their team are mediocre position players such as Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd along with veteran relievers such as Troy Percival or Trever Miller. One would hope and expect that the Orioles would use Free Agency to their advantage more than the Rays have given their resources.

-Pulled off a number of good, mainly under the radar trades (i.e. not blockbusters) to improve their team. Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Ben Zobrist, Chad Bradford, Dioner Navarro and Dan Wheeler were all acquired via trade, in most cases without the Rays giving up anything long-term (the exception being Delmon Young).

So what is the Rays model? Build almost entirely through the draft, supplementing that with very low cost free agents and trades?

Of course the Orioles should use the draft and trades to their advantage, but the Rays model doesn't include any activity at all in the free agent market, domestic or international, which the Orioles, having more resources, can and should make a vital part of their roadmap to success.

Now that they are where they are, expect the Rays to be in on quite a few FA pickups. They had no reason to before because they had no shot at winning.

That brings me to why we shouldn't "waste" 2 years of a contract. You go offer to get someone to move into an East Baltimore row house, for the same price as you would pay for one in Chevy Chase, NW, with the promise that in 2 years, that Baltimore neighborhood will be every bit as good, and tell me what they would say. If we aren't making the playoffs and getting a 1/8th shot at winning a WS, then any move we make is moot and pointless. That being said, if the sum of said moves, whether it is signing every FA in the market, trading for Hardy and Greinke, or just signing Tex and a couple mid level pitchers to buy a year of development, don't get us to the postseason, then in the end they are a waste of time for that particular season. If we are going to lose, would you rather lose and LOSE money, or lose and SAVE money?

[geschinger]

So what is the Rays model? Build almost entirely through the draft, supplementing that with very low cost free agents and trades?

Of course the Orioles should use the draft and trades to their advantage, but the Rays model doesn't include any activity at all in the free agent market, domestic or international, which the Orioles, having more resources, can and should make a vital part of their roadmap to success.

Follow the Rays model to build a solid foundation. Then when we're close maybe we use our resources to add the final piece to the puzzle in the form of an overpriced FA.

If there is any model that best with the Orioles situation it is the Yankees of the mid 1990s until the Mussina signing. When Steinbrenner was suspended they stopped wasting money in FA and built a great farm system. The made some solid trades and some reasonably priced FAs to build a solid team. Their incredible resources were used to lock up the stars they developed. The model procuded several WS rings.

The Orioles need to take the best practices from many organizations and they can be successful. And in no way, shape or form is signing premier free agents a prerequisite for success.

[Sports Guy]

This is exactly why Id consider trading Tillman and Arrieta if he brings back Greinke. You sign Burnett and go:

1. Guthrie

2. Burnett

3. Greinke

4. Cabrera

5. Olson/Liz/etc

If the offense is as good as this past season you are a lot closer to competing. I dont expect both Tillman and Arrieta to become as good as Greinke, Im hopeful but its more likely that neither do than both do. Then youve got Matusz hopefully ready in a year or so to replace Cabrera.

I can see why we wouldnt make that trade but I certainly wouldnt blame them if they did.

That would be a terrible trade for us.

I think you would be hard pressed to find one GM who thinks that is a trade the Orioles should make.

[FutureOwner]

Now that they are where they are, expect the Rays to be in on quite a few FA pickups. They had no reason to before because they had no shot at winning.

That brings me to why we shouldn't "waste" 2 years of a contract. You go offer to get someone to move into an East Baltimore row house, for the same price as you would pay for one in Chevy Chase, NW, with the promise that in 2 years, that Baltimore neighborhood will be every bit as good, and tell me what they would say. If we aren't making the playoffs and getting a 1/8th shot at winning a WS, then any move we make is moot and pointless. That being said, if the sum of said moves, whether it is signing every FA in the market, trading for Hardy and Greinke, or just signing Tex and a couple mid level pitchers to buy a year of development, don't get us to the postseason, then in the end they are a waste of time for that particular season. If we are going to lose, would you rather lose and LOSE money, or lose and SAVE money?

We've been losing AND saving money quite a bit lately. Like I said, you cant predict how your team is going to play, you put the best players you can on the field and see what happens.

Theres nothing wrong with winning because someone has a career year.

If we had 2 more starters who pitched as well as Guthrie we might have been a Wildcard team. The offense somehow scored more runs than the Yankees, too bad the SP was amongst the worst in baseball.

By your logic, unless you can guarantee the World Series by the team you send out opening day theres no reason to sign a FA.

You can get better incrementally, the FA pieces you want arent likely to be found in one offseason.

[Eight]

Follow the Rays model to build a solid foundation. Then when we're close maybe we use our resources to add the final piece to the puzzle in the form of an overpriced FA.

If there is any model that best with the Orioles situation it is the Yankees of the mid 1990s until the Mussina signing. When Steinbrenner was suspended they stopped wasting money in FA and built a great farm system. The made some solid trades and some reasonably priced FAs to build a solid team. Their incredible resources were used to lock up the stars they developed. The model procuded several WS rings.

The Orioles need to take the best practices from many organizations and they can be successful. And in no way, shape or form is signing premier free agents a prerequisite for success.

The Yankees never really stopped signing on Free Agents. That's something of a truth that gets repeated a lot, but it's not really all that accurate.

In the years directly before their resurgence, they signed Jimmy Key, Danny Tartabull, and Wade Boggs to lucrative FA contracts. They gave huge money to guys like Jim Abbott and Melido Perez that they acquired via trades.

In fact, the Yankees were largely built through trades. While several key performers were obviously products of the Yankee farm system, even more, were acquired via trade. O'Neill, Cone, Wetteland, Tino Martinez, Raines, Sierra, Jeff Nelson, Cecil Fielder, Joe Girardi, Knoblauch, Brosius . . . everyone of those players was acquired in a trade. It seems unlikely that any team could net so many established players in trades today.

The Yankees, in those years, did what they've done for decades - spend. And it didn't hurt them one bit. It didn't exclude them from signing Bernie Williams, or stealing Posada or Pettitte in the 22nd and 24th round, or drafting Jeter. Spending and player development are not mutually exclusive. We have plenty of money to spend, and I'm not interested in passing on premium talent while leaving money on the table. Signing Teixeira or another high dollar free agent does not preclude the team from spending more in a few seasons.

Unless the Orioles are fine with staying well out of the pennant race until 2012 or beyond, they should be looking to spend. It doesn't mean they have to go and get Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett this winter. But it does mean that all options should be on the table.

[geschinger]

The Yankees never really stopped signing on Free Agents. That's something of a truth that gets repeated a lot, but it's not really all that accurate.

In the years directly before their resurgence, they signed Jimmy Key, Danny Tartabull, and Wade Boggs to lucrative FA contracts. They gave huge money to guys like Jim Abbott and Melido Perez that they acquired via trades.

In fact, the Yankees were largely built through trades. While several key performers were obviously products of the Yankee farm system, even more, were acquired via trade. O'Neill, Cone, Wetteland, Tino Martinez, Raines, Sierra, Jeff Nelson, Cecil Fielder, Joe Girardi, Knoblauch, Brosius . . . everyone of those players was acquired in a trade. It seems unlikely that any team could net so many established players in trades today.

The Yankees, in those years, did what they've done for decades - spend. And it didn't hurt them one bit. It didn't exclude them from signing Bernie Williams, or stealing Posada or Pettitte in the 22nd and 24th round, or drafting Jeter. Spending and player development are not mutually exclusive. We have plenty of money to spend, and I'm not interested in passing on premium talent while leaving money on the table. Signing Teixeira or another high dollar free agent does not preclude the team from spending more in a few seasons.

Unless the Orioles are fine with staying well out of the pennant race until 2012 or beyond, they should be looking to spend. It doesn't mean they have to go and get Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett this winter. But it does mean that all options should be on the table.

Moderately priced FA... FA that were good values. As for the trades, their player development system allowed them to aquire David Cone, Paul O'Neil, John Wetteland, Tino Martinez, Knoblouch, etc... They did spend money but the key to their success was building a foundation that gave them a stable home grown stars and a plethora of prospects they were able to trade for the guys mentioned above.

[Eight]

Not sure what moderately priced means. They spent big bucks on free agents, as they always have.

[geschinger]

Not sure what moderately priced means. They spent big bucks on free agents, as they always have.

The core was homegrown or aquired with homegrown talent and they supplemented that core with a couple of key free agents. Sure they spent money, but they weren't out there trying to build a team. I'm not sure how where to find payroll numbers but I know for sure that they weren't the biggest spending teams for some of those years and even in the years they were there were a lot of teams in that same range. It is in no way similar to the Mussina signing forward.

[Ruzious]

This is exactly why Id consider trading Tillman and Arrieta if he brings back Greinke. You sign Burnett and go:

1. Guthrie

2. Burnett

3. Greinke

4. Cabrera

5. Olson/Liz/etc

If the offense is as good as this past season you are a lot closer to competing. I dont expect both Tillman and Arrieta to become as good as Greinke, Im hopeful but its more likely that neither do than both do. Then youve got Matusz hopefully ready in a year or so to replace Cabrera.

I can see why we wouldnt make that trade but I certainly wouldnt blame them if they did.

Do you mean trading 1 of Tillman and Arrieta or both of them? Trading both of them would be outrageous, imo - and would be hugely overrating Geinke - as both Tillman and Arrieta have higher ceilings.

[Satyr3206]

Do you mean trading 1 of Tillman and Arrieta or both of them? Trading both of them would be outrageous, imo - and would be hugely overrating Geinke - as both Tillman and Arrieta have higher ceilings.

Tillman and Arrieta will be cheaper too. Thinking about trades is fine but you don't trade 2/5th s of the future rotation for a guy that hasn't had one good season. That would be trading one guy with potential for two with greater potential.

[opawacz]

kool aid. mcphail is an employee and angelos spends on principle; as if his steady & wise stewardship will curtail all silly contracts everywhere. there is no reason we should not overbid on tex and burnett and whomever. (the hometown discount put moose in the hall.) the money is there. open the books! if ticket prices are raised, dont go. baltimore is no small market. the yankee example is a good one. attendance peaked after arod. not after winning ws after ws. the object is to field the best players. and to make money.

jeter, bernie, posada, mo = brob, markakis, weiters, (not fair) ray (tk). whither our charlie hayes?