Rule 5: Orioles Select Mac Sceroler, RHP (Reds) Nephew of Ben McDonald

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

I am proud of myself that I correctly said they would probably take somebody who is not on any radar, but I’m disappointed that they didn’t choose an infielder when we really need a couple of those. I’m going to be annoyed if I have to watch Ruiz at 3B and Valaika at 2B all season.

Elias' priority is pitching, namely getting a ton of guys and hoping some of them stick.

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

High K low walk pitching at an age and level that is equivalent to me playing in my sons tee ball league.
 

Hes a nothing prospect.  There are dozens of guys just like him readily available at the drop of a hat.

Then why did Elias pick him? Don't you think he has spin rate data or something that says he's a better pick than anyone else available, or do you really just think he's throwing darts at the board and picking the guy he hits? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Elias' priority is pitching, namely getting a ton of guys and hoping some of them stick.

Then why did Elias pick him? Don't you think he has spin rate data or something that says he's a better pick than anyone else available, or do you really just think he's throwing darts at the board and picking the guy he hits? 

I’m sure he has his reasons.  I just don’t think they are all that valid compared to his age, the level he has been at and his actual results.  Even the scouting reports on him aren’t that strong.

Im sure we will hear why he took him but I would seriously doubt the scouts that said to do it.

[Tony-OH]

I've only done video scouting of one of Sceroler's starts so far and think he has more of a starter's mix, but I need to watch more starts of his. The curveball was his K pitch in the start I saw, the fastball was ok (89-92), change was ok at times but the slider was pretty bad except for one that was a nice hard late breaker at 82 MPH.

He honestly reminds me a little of Dean Kremer with a better change but a worse slider-cutter.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m sure he has his reasons.  I just don’t think they are all that valid compared to his age, the level he has been at and his actual results.  Even the scouting reports on him aren’t that strong.

Im sure we will hear why he took him but I would seriously doubt the scouts that said to do it.

Why do you seriously doubt that? 

First of all, age/level is slightly off because nobody played last year. This is a guy who would have been in AA in 2020 but for Covid and thus likely projects as a 2021 ML player if the results matched.

I know you were not active here at the time, but Luke used to always go through his Rule V guys and give nuggets that us luddites simply didn't know about. For pitchers, it was almost always spin rate. Then the O's hired him. My guess is they see something in the profile (spin rate, possibly mechanics) that says he has a better chance of being developed than every single pitcher who was otherwise available. 

He was the top of our board and he was there for a reason. Any other conclusion is conspiracy theory stuff.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, LookinUp said:

Why do you seriously doubt that? 

First of all, age/level is slightly off because nobody played last year. This is a guy who would have been in AA in 2020 but for Covid and thus likely projects as a 2021 ML player if the results matched.

I know you were not active here at the time, but Luke used to always go through his Rule V guys and give nuggets that us luddites simply didn't know about. For pitchers, it was almost always spin rate. Then the O's hired him. My guess is they see something in the profile (spin rate, possibly mechanics) that says he has a better chance of being developed than every single pitcher who was otherwise available. 

He was the top of our board and he was there for a reason. Any other conclusion is conspiracy theory stuff.

No, I mean I would doubt the evaluation of the scout.  In other words, I think they made a bad call.

The age and level aren’t slightly off.  Those are facts and even if he was in AA last year, he would have been old for that level too.

As for Luke..that’s great...and how many of those guys he touted are in the majors and doing anything significant?  My guess is that the answer is closer to 0 than 5.

Of course, that’s not slight to Luke.  These players are, generally speaking, very flawed.  That’s why they are available and why they are long shots to make it.  He was just looking for anything that could make them interesting.

But for these guys to be the players you take and lose Pop is or judgement imo. 

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

But for these guys to be the players you take and lose Pop is or judgement imo. 

Bottom line: they have much better information than you have. It's like the days when fans looked at batting average and ERA and the Oakland A's looked at OBP. They were ahead.

The O's Front Office is ahead of Sports Guy in not insignificant ways. Does that mean Rule V guys will hit or Pop will fail? Not at all. You may be right, but I'll go with their judgement over yours 10 days out of 10.

And I'm not saying that to talk bad about you. I think you have a great baseball mind. I probably give you more rep than most here, but I just think this exercise is above your area of expertise.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Bottom line: they have much better information than you have. It's like the days when fans looked at batting average and ERA and the Oakland A's looked at OBP. They were ahead.

The O's Front Office is ahead of Sports Guy in not insignificant ways. Does that mean Rule V guys will hit or Pop will fail? Not at all. You may be right, but I'll go with their judgement over yours 10 days out of 10.

And I'm not saying that to talk bad about you. I think you have a great baseball mind. I probably give you more rep than most here, but I just think this exercise is above your area of expertise.

What I question is if they have better information than the teams who left them off the 40 man.

That's the main issue I have with rule V guys.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

High K low walk pitching at an age and level that is equivalent to me playing in my sons tee ball league.

I heard you came in second in the MVP voting there.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I heard you came in second in the MVP voting there.  

Jack Zoellner beat him out.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What I question is if they have better information than the teams who left them off the 40 man.

That's the main issue I have with rule V guys.

I think this is always a fair question. It's also a fair question about our own guys too.

[Frobby]

Director of pro scouting Mike Snyder talked about Sceroler and Wells in a Zoom conference call with the media.

“Both of these guys fit an attractive archetype as strike-throwing starting pitchers with a deep repertoire. In both cases we have excellent performance and a very appealing pitch mix,” Snyder said.

“For Sceroler, we were attracted to the four-pitch mix. It’s a good fastball, good traits and flashes of power. He leverages the curveball downhill. Throws the slider for strikes and for chases and he can get a lot of awkward swings on a plus-splitter. So he brings a lot to the table.” 

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/12/orioles-select-two-pitchers-and-lose-two-in-rule-5-draft.html

 

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

High K low walk pitching at an age and level that is equivalent to me playing in my sons tee ball league.
 

Hes a nothing prospect.  There are dozens of guys just like him readily available at the drop of a hat.

The goal of the Rule 5 draft is not to pick prospects.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I've only done video scouting of one of Sceroler's starts so far and think he has more of a starter's mix, but I need to watch more starts of his. The curveball was his K pitch in the start I saw, the fastball was ok (89-92), change was ok at times but the slider was pretty bad except for one that was a nice hard late breaker at 82 MPH.

He honestly reminds me a little of Dean Kremer with a better change but a worse slider-cutter.

Speaking of Kremer, having watched him in the big leagues, have you revised your evaluation of his upside? 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Philip

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Bottom line: they have much better information than you have. It's like the days when fans looked at batting average and ERA and the Oakland A's looked at OBP. They were ahead.

The O's Front Office is ahead of Sports Guy in not insignificant ways. Does that mean Rule V guys will hit or Pop will fail? Not at all. You may be right, but I'll go with their judgement over yours 10 days out of 10.

And I'm not saying that to talk bad about you. I think you have a great baseball mind. I probably give you more rep than most here, but I just think this exercise is above your area of expertise.

So let me get this straight.  Elias and his staff are totally infallible?  They never have and never will be wrong?

Next thing..why do you come to a message board and discuss these things if your thought process is, they know everything and there is no reason to question it.

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, interloper said:

The goal of the Rule 5 draft is not to pick prospects.

Well, if you are a nothing prospect, you are also likely a nothing MLer.  Not many people struggle in the minors and become good in the majors.