ZiPS O’s projections 2021

[Frobby]

Santander .267/.308/.489

Valaika .270/.305/.478

Mancini .277/.332/.491

Hays .266/.306/.442

Mountcastle .288/.324/.473

Mullins .245/.296/.390

Ruiz .236/.301/.403

Sisco .232/.334/.391

Sanchez .255/.320/.374

Severino .240/.304/.390

Stewart .226/.323/.425

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

 

[Frobby]

A few of the pitchers:

Means 4.90 ERA

Akin 5.00

Cobb 5.27

Kremer 5.46

Tanner Scott is the only pitcher on the whole staff ZiPS projects at a sub-4.00 ERA, at 3.70.

 

[jabba72]

I expect the O's to outperform many of these projections but thats just the fan in me. Those pitcher ERA's look pretty dreadful. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I expect the O's to outperform many of these projections but thats just the fan in me. Those pitcher ERA's look pretty dreadful. 

Do they know that Cobb spent the offseason refining his game?

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do they know that Cobb spent the offseason refining his game?

Obviously, I know this is tongue in cheek.   However, the creator of ZiPS, Dave Szymborski, has made it clear numerous times that ZiPS is a mathematical algorithm and he doesn’t adjust the results for individual players even when he thinks they are off base.   And he is a Baltimore native.   I’ll be interested to read his next chat to see if he gets asked where he thinks ZiPS got the O’s wrong.  

Personally, assuming a relatively healthy season, I’ll be shocked if Means doesn’t do much better than a 4.90 ERA, and I’ll be pretty disappointed if .748 OPS is the best Hays can do.   In general I think the ERA projections are awfully high.   The offense projections are in the ballpark.    

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Obviously, I know this is tongue in cheek.   However, the creator of ZiPS, Dave Szymborski, has made it clear numerous times that ZiPS is a mathematical algorithm and he doesn’t adjust the results for individual players even when he thinks they are off base.   And he is a Baltimore native.   I’ll be interested to read his next chat to see if he gets asked where he thinks ZiPS got the O’s wrong.  

Personally, assuming a relatively healthy season, I’ll be shocked if Means doesn’t do much better than a 4.90 ERA, and I’ll be pretty disappointed if .748 OPS is the best Hays can do.   In general I think the ERA projections are awfully high.   

I was surprised that Mancini's numbers looked that solid after missing 2020 with his illness.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was surprised that Mancini's numbers looked that solid after missing 2020 with his illness.

That’s another thing ZiPS doesn’t do.   It doesn’t know if Mancini missed the season with Stage 3 cancer or a broken leg.    And my guess is that the discount for missing the season isn’t as big with a 60-game season.   

[Frobby]

FWIW, last year Mancini was projected at .273/.337/.495, compared to this year’s projected .277/.332/.491.    So yeah, not a lot of discount for the missed season.     I’d certainly be very happy if that projection were accurate, even though it’s a step down from 2019.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s another thing ZiPS doesn’t do.   It doesn’t know if Mancini missed the season with Stage 3 cancer or a broken leg.    And my guess is that the discount for missing the season isn’t as big with a 60-game season.   

I didn't think it did, just figured that the missed games would hurt his numbers a bit more.

[Just Regular]

That Jeff Kent comp on Valaika will stoke some fires...

Kevin Smith enthusiasm up.  I noted Dan grouping Lowther with the Big Three, and Kremer down on a Zimmermann-level projection, just half of Akin's.

If Norfolk plays and Baltimore doesn't in April/May, it could be interesting to see if Kremer/Akin get priority for the game reps.

[Orioles0615]

When was the last time they had a projection of one of our starters with under a 4.50 era? 

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do they know that Cobb spent the offseason refining his game?

I don’t think they know anything since Mark Trumbo is listed with a projection 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Obviously, I know this is tongue in cheek.   However, the creator of ZiPS, Dave Szymborski, has made it clear numerous times that ZiPS is a mathematical algorithm and he doesn’t adjust the results for individual players even when he thinks they are off base.   And he is a Baltimore native.   I’ll be interested to read his next chat to see if he gets asked where he thinks ZiPS got the O’s wrong.  

Personally, assuming a relatively healthy season, I’ll be shocked if Means doesn’t do much better than a 4.90 ERA, and I’ll be pretty disappointed if .748 OPS is the best Hays can do.   In general I think the ERA projections are awfully high.   The offense projections are in the ballpark.    

It is a “mathematical algorithm” that claims it is a “projection” but it’s  “mathematical algorithm” mainly “projects” estimates that are often wrong.   I have never found ZIPS very useful as a fan.  

Are there any articles out there that have retrospectively studied the accuracy of these predictions? 

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, andrewochs615 said:

I don’t think they know anything since Mark Trumbo is listed with a projection 

All players are listed with their last team played with unless they’ve been signed with another organization. For example, Schwarber was listed with the recent Cubs preview. 
 

the little graphic with the diamond is a better indication of who is expected to get playing time. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

That Zips projects Kevin Sm

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Obviously, I know this is tongue in cheek.   However, the creator of ZiPS, Dave Szymborski, has made it clear numerous times that ZiPS is a mathematical algorithm and he doesn’t adjust the results for individual players even when he thinks they are off base.   And he is a Baltimore native.   I’ll be interested to read his next chat to see if he gets asked where he thinks ZiPS got the O’s wrong.  

Personally, assuming a relatively healthy season, I’ll be shocked if Means doesn’t do much better than a 4.90 ERA, and I’ll be pretty disappointed if .748 OPS is the best Hays can do.   In general I think the ERA projections are awfully high.   The offense projections are in the ballpark.    

I was a little surprised Means wasn’t mentioned in the body of the article. 
 

and this passage was a bit odd:

“It’s doubtful, though, that 2020’s surprising run was the leading edge of something bigger. Anthony Santander’s .261/.315/.575 campaign may have been enough to elevate him over the rest of the team’s deep stable of Quad-A sluggers, but a lot of the winning was due to good years from players like José Iglesiasand Tommy Milone, who were never going to be part of the core going forward.“

 

specifically the bit about Milone. The team was 2-4 in his starts. He largely pitched fine, but the statement is an odd one.