MLB.com: O’s farm system is the 4th-most improved

[hoosiers]

I think we will graduate Mountcastle and AR among our top 100 crop.  It is entirely conceivable that our #5 overall pick in 2021 could make a top 100 list and that GHenderson improves to the point of being a top 100 player.  Remember, our 2020 draft consisted of passing on a reputed top talent for Kjerstad and a bundle of other talent.  Hoping/expecting that the other talent develops into quality prospects is the plan.  So hopefully, that comes to fruition. Also, remember that the 2020 draft was somewhat of a crapshoot considering the lack of reduced scouting exposure - one has to hope that our front office excelled in that draft - a hope all fans have for their teams, but there will be winners and losers from that draft in that some teams will look at the first rounders and realize they really have a third round talent on their hands and some will end up with strong, strong drafts.

We do have tradeable talent in Santander, Mancini and others - perhaps Means.  Last year, our front office turned Milone, Iggy and Bleier into prospects.  There is every reason to hope this can be repeated in 2021.

The Rays have set themselves up in an unbelievable - almost unprecedented position.  Consistent top farm team, consistent contender.  They will trade anyone, but one has to pay a premium and other teams consistently pay it.  I am not sure if our front office intends to operate this way or whether we would keep higher end talent.  When I proposed dealing Wieters, Davis and others around 2012-2014, it was widely ridiculed, but that is how the better run franchises operate, but they operate in that fashion because they HAVE TO, the Orioles would have to mimic that behavior and re-cycle top players for a larger pool of younger, prospect talent as a matter of choice - and very few teams have been able to do that.  Most teams have a "window" to compete and act accordingly.

[hoosiers]

Separately, kudos to our front office for this recognition.  It is entirely possible that this rating is a high water mark considering who we graduate, but if we continue to draft well and have B prospects step forward and keep taking our appropriate share or more of international talent, it is also possible for us to retain or improve our ranking entering 2022.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Separately, kudos to our front office for this recognition.  It is entirely possible that this rating is a high water mark considering who we graduate, but if we continue to draft well and have B prospects step forward and keep taking our appropriate share or more of international talent, it is also possible for us to retain or improve our ranking entering 2022.

They had the second pick in the draft and the most pool money.  They delayed promoting Mountcastle so he retained his rookie status.  They traded a few pieces.

What were you expecting that you think fourth rates kudos?

[Just Regular]

The biggest driver of will next year's lists go up or down is if Rutschman is on or off them.  I hope all the Drew Roms become the best versions of themselves, but doubt if even a bunch of development wins of regular decent prospects can offset the presence or absence of your franchise guy.  We'll see if Kjerstad starts walking a Jay Bruce or Billy Rowell path.

A respectable Mancini/Severino/Sisco trade could move the needle.   If it gets to the point we're punting '22 also, I think finding Trey a decent team is a kindness this July.  You can always Bordick bring him back in '23 if he's good enough for that team then.

I certainly hope ownership's evaluation as Elias's 1st contract winds down won't be so facile as to pass out Exceeds Expectations if an Adley Hoard results in the Orioles being pronounced "baseball's #1 farm system" a year from now.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

The biggest driver of will next year's lists go up or down is if Rutschman is on or off them.  I hope all the Drew Roms become the best versions of themselves, but doubt if even a bunch of development wins of regular decent prospects can offset the presence or absence of your franchise guy.  We'll see if Kjerstad starts walking a Jay Bruce or Billy Rowell path.

A respectable Mancini/Severino/Sisco trade could move the needle.   If it gets to the point we're punting '22 also, I think finding Trey a decent team is a kindness this July.  You can always Bordick bring him back in '23 if he's good enough for that team then.

I certainly hope ownership's evaluation as Elias's 1st contract winds down won't be so facile as to pass out Exceeds Expectations if an Adley Hoard results in the Orioles being pronounced "baseball's #1 farm system" a year from now.

I think ownership's evaluation is going to be based on how well Elias kept costs down. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They had the second pick in the draft and the most pool money.  They delayed promoting Mountcastle so he retained his rookie status.  They traded a few pieces.

What were you expecting that you think fourth rates kudos?

And what has this FO done to deserve those kudos anyway?  Most of the players were already here and Adley was an obvious pick that had nothing to do with what Elias did.

I love what he has been implementing but the lost 2020 season gave us very little insight on the progression of our system.  Hearing glowing remarks by the organization really doesn’t mean much.

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And what has this FO done to deserve those kudos anyway?  Most of the players were already here and Adley was an obvious pick that had nothing to do with what Elias did.

I love what he has been implementing but the lost 2020 season gave us very little insight on the progression of our system.  Hearing glowing remarks by the organization really doesn’t mean much.

 

Kjerstad might very well be the determining factor in how Elias is viewed.

If he pans out, and to a lesser extent the overslots, Elias looks like a genius.

If Kjerstad flames out it looks bad.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kjerstad might very well be the determining factor in how Elias is viewed.

If he pans out, and to a lesser extent the overslots, Elias looks like a genius.

If Kjerstad flames out it looks bad.

No question although his trades will also matter.

But yes, when your goal is to lose as many games as possible and get as high a pick as possible, that pick better pan out because everything  else you accomplish in terms of the rest of your draft, trades, etc...can happen whether you rebuild or not.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No question although his trades will also matter.

But yes, when your goal is to lose as many games as possible and get as high a pick as possible, that pick better pan out because everything  else you accomplish in terms of the rest of your draft, trades, etc...can happen whether you rebuild or not.  

Even moreso with Kjerstad.  If Elias had picked chalk and the player didn't work out I don't think he'd be as criticized.  I know I view Hobgood as a worse pick than Rowell.

[wildcard]

15 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

They had the #2 pick in the draft, traded for four top-30 prospects and only graduated Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey.

In 2021 they will almost certainly graduate Mountcastle, Akin and Kremer (all in the top 15) and could graduate Diaz, Baumann, (less likely) Rutschman, and Kevin Smith from the top 15.

I can't see them trading for any more top-30 prospects, Alex Cobb would have to be lights out to net one and there are no other obvious candidates to be traded.

Would be tough to repeat as most improved next year.

The 2020 draft added 6 players to the O's top 30.   The 2021 draft may add 4 or 5.   If Givens brings back Vavra, Castro brings back Smith and Iglesias brings back Stallings then Mancini,  Sanchez, Cobb, Armstrong and/or others may bring back similar returns.

I am not sure we will see AR in the majors in 2021.

[Roll Tide]

15 hours ago, weams said:

Means and Scott might get a good return. Maybe even Santander.

I’m not sure I’d be happy if they deal guys like Means ....When you you stop selling? If that doesn’t happen you never pull out of the rebuild.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m not sure I’d be happy if they deal guys like Means ....When you you stop selling? If that doesn’t happen you never pull out of the rebuild.

JMO but Means and Scott aren't going anywhere for years.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They had the second pick in the draft and the most pool money.  They delayed promoting Mountcastle so he retained his rookie status.  They traded a few pieces.

What were you expecting that you think fourth rates kudos?

Realistic expectations not driven mostly by cynicism?

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No question although his trades will also matter.

But yes, when your goal is to lose as many games as possible and get as high a pick as possible, that pick better pan out because everything  else you accomplish in terms of the rest of your draft, trades, etc...can happen whether you rebuild or not.  

There is value in drafting high every round, not just the first.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There is value in drafting high every round, not just the first.

Ehhh, I don’t know about that.  There is value in that you can get who you want easier but teams boards are all over the place.  The difference in career WAR between pick 45 and 70 is probably nothing.  
 

So while there is value in getting who you want, you may still get that player later and/or get a similar talent.

Either way, that’s a terrible reason for losing games on purpose