PECOTA projected standings

[Just Regular]

The combination of PECOTA rates and playing time guesses from BP staff give 2021 Loss leaders as:

Rockies 101.7

Pirates 100.9

Orioles 95.7

Tigers 95.4

Rangers 94.8

Marlins 93.9

Mariners 92.4

Royals 91.2

After those obvious eight, it sees only the Giants in an 86.7 ballpark before everyone else is arguably a .500 team (or more).

Among the better players I think will help the 2021 Orioles push up towards 75 wins, it gives Baumann 54 IP, Lowther 40 IP, Hall 15 IP (and blithely gives Harvey a 71 IP "full time reliever" role) on the pitching side.  Except for Means, every SP but Hall is predicted for 4.5 IP/GS or less.   They seem not to have Felix Hernandez on the team and Lopez/Zimmermann as regular #4/#5 starters, or maybe they think Felix just won't be able to beat those guys for a job.

Batters it guesses 70 PA for Rutschman, 70 for Jones, 140 for Diaz.

It also gives 245 to Davis, avoidance of which probably saves a couple wins all by itself.   No word on if they will take bets on Adley/Jones/Diaz and lay 35 PA vs. Davis this year.

[jamalshw]

Honestly, I'd be happy with a 66-96 record as these projects seem to indicate.

I don't expect to see Hall this year (unless he really improved in the alternate site last year), but would love to see 40-50 frames from Baumann and Lowther among others. I agree the Harvey projection is more than a bit optimistic on the health front.

I also wouldn't be too surprised if our starters average less than five innings. Particularly given the lack of innings last year. It may be a two-times through the order and done situation for most of the young guys this year. I think 2023 is probably the earliest one can expect to compete so 2021 can be about getting their feet wet and 2022 can work on extending them a bit if they're up for it.

I hope we see more than 140 ABs for Diaz. I'd like to get a good long look at him in the second half.

[Moose Milligan]

I'd consider anything under 100 losses a success...given of course how the young players are playing.  

[LTO's]

This seems right to me. I don't think there's any way the O's lose more than the Pirates unless the NL Central really takes a step back. Rockies are sure to be hovering around 100 losses. Getting a top 3 pick for next year is huge because presumably by then data from college seasons will have stabilized and so too will the showcases. I think they take the best college player available and hope he shoots through the system.

[LookinUp]

The 'upside' of this team is centered around Elias' pitching development. If some combination of Baumann, Lowther, Akin, Kremer, Zimmerman, Wells etc. can be about average, we're a different team. Not 85 wins different, but maybe 75? Last year's pace was 67 wins. I think that's certainly achievable. Did we lose that much by trading the oft-injured SS?

I'm not necessarily predicting that, but I think it's kind of the upside absent the arrival of more top prospects and an additional couple of bats.

[Frobby]

Can’t argue much with it.   We were  on a 67.5 win pace last year, and no longer have Iglesias, Cobb, Alberto or Nunez.    It all boils down to how the younger players perform and who stays healthy.    

One thing I’m pretty sure of is that Chris Davis won’t get 245 PA.    
 

[HowAboutThat]

I stand by a minimum of 70 wins. As the season moves on we are going to discover our best producers and use them, The rotation will stabilize, and hopefully Mountcastle will migrate to first And we will have a full group of competent outfielders.

[CarrRun49]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

I stand by a minimum of 70 wins. As the season moves on we are going to discover our best producers and use them, The rotation will stabilize, and hopefully Mountcastle will migrate to first And we will have a full group of competent outfielders.

But what about Chris Davis?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd consider anything under 100 losses a success...given of course how the young players are playing.  

And if the young players get a chance to play. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And if the young players get a chance to play. 

I don't see this being a problem.  

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, CarrRun49 said:

But what about Chris Davis?

I’ve said this before, but I hope they will call Chris Davis into the office and tell him, “you are on the roster, but we’re going to ignore you. You’re going to sit on the bench and you’re not gonna play except in the eighth inning of a doubleheader.”

[sportsfan8703]

We play in by far the toughest division in baseball. I don’t see Elias rushing any of our prospects to help the mlb team. This is the rock bottom year. Fortunately for us, our vet players were able to perform well enough to get traded. I expect to see Mancini, Armstrong, Fry, Severino, and Santander dealt at the deadline. 

2023 here we come. 

[Can_of_corn]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We play in by far the toughest division in baseball. I don’t see Elias rushing any of our prospects to help the mlb team. This is the rock bottom year. Fortunately for us, our vet players were able to perform well enough to get traded. I expect to see Mancini, Armstrong, Fry, Severino, and Santander dealt at the deadline. 

2023 here we come. 

Pecota has the NL West a game and a half behind the AL East in total wins.  I don't think they think the AL East is by far the toughest.