What if Lowther is ready?

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

Yes, I hate to see them bounce back and forth. I'd like to see them prove they don't belong - kind of like they did in A and AA by the time they were finished that season.

I don’t get why they would have to bounce back and forth just because they don’t show to be one of the best pitchers in AAA.

I understand that is very broad criteria but I think that’s  a flawed way of looking at things.

 

 

[orioles22]

Two or three good starts in AAA and then they move up. Two or three bad starts and they go back down. I'd just like to see a consistent level of strong performance in AAA first. It doesn't guarantee anything, of course, but it's what I would like to see. I don't make those decisions, but it's been my preference for years.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

Two or three good starts in AAA and then they move up. Two or three bad starts and they go back down. I'd just like to see a consistent level of strong performance in AAA first. It doesn't guarantee anything, of course, but it's what I would like to see. I don't make those decisions, but it's been my preference for years.

I guess it just depends on how you are defining strong performance and whether or not that’s being realistic. 

[Ruzious]

I want them to promote him when they think he's ready.  Pitching in AAA isn't guaranteed to help him.  Some things that work in AAA might not work in the majors.  For example, if he figures he can get certain AAA/AAAA batters out with just his fastball, he might neglect working in his changeup - which he'll need to get most batters out in the majors.  Pitching in the majors forces him to become a better pitcher and makes it clearer to him what he needs to work on.   

[orioles22]

I'm sure they will promote when they think he's ready. They gave Akin plenty of work in AAA and it appeared he was working on all his pitches, even though it probably hurt his success some at that level. Nothing guarantees success at the major league level. I'd just like to see a steady progression to that level and hope for the best.

Of course, if the Orioles aren't eventually going to spend some money it all seems meaningless to me and that's why I'm questioning my dedication to the sport after 50 years of following the Orioles.

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I want them to promote him when they think he's ready.  Pitching in AAA isn't guaranteed to help him.  Some things that work in AAA might not work in the majors.  For example, if he figures he can get certain AAA/AAAA batters out with just his fastball, he might neglect working in his changeup - which he'll need to get most batters out in the majors.  Pitching in the majors forces him to become a better pitcher and makes it clearer to him what he needs to work on.   

That is what pitching coaches are for.  They told Akin he had to use his off speed pitches more last year at AAA.  And that is what he worked on.

[Ruzious]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is what pitching coaches are for.  They told Akin he had to use his off speed pitches more last year at AAA.  And that is what he worked on.

When you do that, you're not really competing.  Competing is about getting the batter out - not trying a variety of pitches against him.         

[orioles22]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

When you do that, you're not really competing.  Competing is about getting the batter out - not trying a variety of pitches against him.         

So, the knock on AAA is he can retire hitters without using all his pitches but then you are against using all the pitches in AAA because it isn't "competing." You just want all the prospects to skip AAA?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, orioles22 said:

So, the knock on AAA is he can retire hitters without using all his pitches but then you are against using all the pitches in AAA because it isn't "competing." You just want all the prospects to skip AAA?

There is a school of thought that skipping AAA is no big deal and that AA has the more elite prospects.  
 

I don’t care if any of our guys ever see AAA.  They should be brought up when they get to the point where they don’t have anything left to learn in the minors that can’t be taught up here, especially while the team sucks and doesn’t care about winning.

[Beef Supreme]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a school of thought that skipping AAA is no big deal and that AA has the more elite prospects.  
 

I don’t care if any of our guys ever see AAA.  They should be brought up when they get to the point where they don’t have anything left to learn in the minors that can’t be taught up here, especially while the team sucks and doesn’t care about winning.

AAA is for the Pat Valaika-type player to be ready to fill in at the major league level for a couple of weeks when someone on the big-league squad goes on the DL. It's common for top prospects to spend no time in AAA between AA to MLB.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a school of thought that skipping AAA is no big deal and that AA has the more elite prospects.  
 

I don’t care if any of our guys ever see AAA.  They should be brought up when they get to the point where they don’t have anything left to learn in the minors that can’t be taught up here, especially while the team sucks and doesn’t care about winning.

I think it is always harder at the major league level  to “work on stuff” rather than doing whatever gives you the best chance of getting the batter out right now, even when you’re pitching on a last place team.    Maybe it shouldn’t be that way, but I think that’s how it is.   

[Ruzious]

11 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

AAA is for the Pat Valaika-type player to be ready to fill in at the major league level for a couple of weeks when someone on the big-league squad goes on the DL. It's common for top prospects to spend no time in AAA between AA to MLB.

Exactly.  And in Lowther's case, he'll turn 25 in April and has dominated at every level he's pitched at.  What is pitching against AAA players - who are mostly AAAA types - really going to do for a guy like him?  It should be a question for the O's scouts as to whether or not he's ready.  If they think he's ready for Baltimore, he should pitch in Baltimore.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

AAA is for the Pat Valaika-type player to be ready to fill in at the major league level for a couple of weeks when someone on the big-league squad goes on the DL. It's common for top prospects to spend no time in AAA between AA to MLB.

When you say “common,” what do you mean?    I recently did a thread about 21 players who debuted in 2013 to see if their service time had been manipulated.   All of those were decent or better players who have accrued at least 5 rWAR in their career.    Of the 21, six jumped from AA to the majors, 15 did not.    I don’t know, but I’m guessing that’s a pretty typical ratio among good prospects.    Of course, some guys debut from AA, get sent down after a time and then go to AAA later.   And on the other hand, a good number have a very brief AAA stay before graduating to the majors.   

[orioles22]

I've heard that "school of thought" for many years. I'm sure it has worked for many of the most elite prospects, but I think most could use that year of seasoning, even against the 4A types.

I think the fact we aren't that good makes it even more reasonable to spend some time in AAA. If we aren't going to win anything, why would you take any chance on rushing a prospect when there is absolutely no reason to do so.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

I've heard that "school of thought" for many years. I'm sure it has worked for many of the most elite prospects, but I think most could use that year of seasoning, even against the 4A types.

I think the fact we aren't that good makes it even more reasonable to spend some time in AAA. If we aren't going to win anything, why would you take any chance on rushing a prospect when there is absolutely no reason to do so.

There is no such thing as rushing a prospect unless it’s some ridiculous circumstance that basically would never happen.

Otherwise, “rushing” is a myth.