Jason Grey on Matusz

[PaulBako]

Since 1998, here are the only guys I could find who were drafted and started at AA or higher:

Mark Mulder (started at AAA)

Mark Prior

Dewon Brazelton

There were a few, like Luke Hochevar, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Ben Sheets who signed early enough to pitch a little the same year they were drafted and pitched a few innings of A ball, moving to AA at the start of the year after they were drafted.

So hooisers is correct, starting a guy at AA is very rare even when he's a high 1st round pick out of college.

Here are some college guys who were top 10 picks who started lower:

David Price

David Moskos

Ross Detwiler

Andrew Miller

Mike Pelfrey

Justin Verlander

Phliip Humber

Jeremy Sowers

Tim Stauffer

Paul Maholm

Bryan Bullington

Jeff Francis

John Van Benschoten

Adam Johnson

Justin Wayne

Kyle Snyder

Barry Zito

Ben Sheets

Jeff Austin

Let's start him at A level! That list is scary at the top.

[NCRaven]

The rotation at Norfolk will be Tillman, Hernandez, Berken, Bergesen and Patton. Albers will be in the rotation or bullpen with Orioles, while Liz and Olson have nothing to prove in AAA. They need to get it done in Baltimore, if not then, I hate to say but cut them loose. They can't be wasting spots in Norfolk because the next batch of pitchers will be ready for their shot, then you have the next batch waiting in the wings.

I think the Norfolk rotation is very much up in the air until we see what free agent pitching MacPhail signs and what decision he makes concerning Daniel Cabrera. You can't say who will be in the Norfolk rotation until you know who is in the Baltimore rotation and bullpen. Penn has to stick in the majors or be passed through waivers and I'm pretty sure he'd be claimed. Olson and Liz could both end up in any number of places ML rotation or pen and AAA rotation or pen depending on how they do in spring training and what role the FO sees them filling in the future.

[ShoelesJoe]

So where does Matusz begin the season next year? Last year, O's pitcher Jake Arrieta made his pro debut at the AFL and didn't allow an earned run, then spent the whole season at high Class A despite pitching well. However, Matusz has a more advanced feel for pitching and better overall command than Arrieta, and it wouldn't be a stretch to see Matusz start right at Double-A and advance quickly through the minors. He's a very polished pitcher right now, and he looks like he'll eventually be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues.

Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but I thought Matusz had a likely ceiling as a No. 1 starter. Did I misread that somewhere?

[slappy12]

I think the Norfolk rotation is very much up in the air until we see what free agent pitching MacPhail signs and what decision he makes concerning Daniel Cabrera. You can't say who will be in the Norfolk rotation until you know who is in the Baltimore rotation and bullpen. Penn has to stick in the majors or be passed through waivers and I'm pretty sure he'd be claimed. Olson and Liz could both end up in any number of places ML rotation or pen and AAA rotation or pen depending on how they do in spring training and what role the FO sees them filling in the future.

I really don't think so. It's their turn(Tillman, Hernandez, etc). Liz and Olson already had their turn and now they need to produce at the ML level. Olson and Liz shouldn't take up the space in the AAA rotation and slow down the development of Tillman, Hernandez, et al. Their(Liz and Olson) window is rapidly closing. The bullpen is always an option for Liz and Olson.

[BillySmith]

I am no longer lamenting this selection. Sure we need a first baseman, but Smoak Schmoke as far I'm concerned. This guy is exciting.

[Stotle]

Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but I thought Matusz had a likely ceiling as a No. 1 starter. Did I misread that somewhere?

I think his ceiling is below a true #1, but that list of true #1s is pretty exclusive so it's no knock.

[Frobby]

I think his ceiling is below a true #1, but that list of true #1s is pretty exclusive so it's no knock.

And here we get into "scout-speak." What is a "true #1?" I think that means the very exclusive category of guys who get Cy Young votes almost every single year. There are maybe 10 "true #1's" in all of baseball at any given time. Is that a fair definition of what you mean?

[CrimsonTribe]

I am no longer lamenting this selection. Sure we need a first baseman, but Smoak Schmoke as far I'm concerned. This guy is exciting.

It's always nice when you can get one of those pitchers who can both strike people out regularly AND keep the ball over the plate. Orioles fans are going to learn that these two things are not mutually exclusive.

[Frobby]

It's always nice when you can get one of those pitchers who can both strike people out regularly AND keep the ball over the plate. Orioles fans are going to learn that these two things are not mutually exclusive.

As I was watching Cole Hamels work last night, all I could think of is "this is the guy they compare Matusz to." I'd love to have a pitcher like that.

[Stotle]

And here we get into "scout-speak." What is a "true #1?" I think that means the very exclusive category of guys who get Cy Young votes almost every single year. There are maybe 10 "true #1's" in all of baseball at any given time. Is that a fair definition of what you mean?

Of the top of my head I'd define a #1 as:

1. Two pitches that grade out as fringe-plus-plus to plus-plus and another above-average to plus

2. Perhaps one more pitch that is average or better (though depending on the above, this might not be necessary)

3. Plus command

4. Advanced pitchability (knowledge of the "art" and how to gameplan and execute)

5. Durability (both in-game and in-season -- loosely I'll say he has a reasonable chance at 6+ IP each outing, with shorter outings due to effectiveness and not stamina)

6. Usually all of this adds up to high ability to miss bats, but I wouldn't say that missing bats is a requisite (more often, not missing bats is illustrating a shortcoming in 1-4)

I think Matusz can tick off 2-6, but I don't know that he has the ceiling on his pitches to grow into 1. His change and curve could certainly end up as plus-plus offerings, but I don't think his fastball gets there without adding 3-5 mph. I think that's why he gets the Hamels comp from me. Great command and a killer CH/CB combo. Not enough velo on the FB.

Now, I'm not saying it's inconceivable for him to become a true #1. I just think his total package looks to add up to #2 if all goes as expected.

Finally, the purpose of having the label is to identify a pitcher who has not just the ability but the reasonable possibility of absolutely dominating every game he starts. Everyone has "off" days, but a true #1 should have you thinking "7 IP, 8 SO, 1 BB, 4 H, 0 ER" whenever you flip to he box scores.

Does that make sense?

[Ven6]

Matusz looked very impressive winning game one of the World Series last night!

Love this. And loved watching Cole, thinking of Matusz.

[tnsmith90]

I'm no baseball scout, but I think the "ceiling" thing is really more of a general expectation rather than a true ceiling. Pitching is more of an art, and less of an athletic event. So people are not limited by their athletic ability, but rather their ability to improve.

It seems as though Matusz has the stuff that generally profiles to a number 2, but he could certainly eclipse that by improving as a pitcher. How many thought that Erik Bedard would be an ace when he was drafted? How about Hamels, or Mussina? These guys were all pitchers that didn't have that 99 mph fastball, but they developed their art of pitching. Matusz could do the same. Most likely he'll be about a 2, and should atleast be a 5, but he definitely could become an ace. That's how I look at it.

[Stotle]

I'm no baseball scout, but I think the "ceiling" thing is really more of a general expectation rather than a true ceiling. Pitching is more of an art, and less of an athletic event. So people are not limited by their athletic ability, but rather their ability to improve.

It seems as though Matusz has the stuff that generally profiles to a number 2, but he could certainly eclipse that by improving as a pitcher. How many thought that Erik Bedard would be an ace when he was drafted? How about Hamels, or Mussina? These guys were all pitchers that didn't have that 99 mph fastball, but they developed their art of pitching. Matusz could do the same. Most likely he'll be about a 2, and should atleast be a 5, but he definitely could become an ace. That's how I look at it.

I generally agree with this (though I consider Hamels a #2). Further, I think Matusz's limitations will be physical and not mental. He is well on his way to being one of the better "pitchability" pitchers around. He already has an incredibly advanced approach on the mound and can breakdown hitters effectively.

[Frobby]

I generally agree with this (though I consider Hamels a #2).

Hamels is 24 years old and his ERAs have gone 4.08, 3.39, 3.09. In his minor league career, he had a 1.43 ERA and never had an ERA above 2.77 at any level. That's a no. 1 to me, no matter what it is he's throwing.

[Stotle]

Hamels is 24 years old and his ERAs have gone 4.08, 3.39, 3.09. In his minor league career, he had a 1.43 ERA and never had an ERA above 2.77 at any level. That's a no. 1 to me, no matter what it is he's throwing.

I don't think you see those numbers in the AL. And I'm not trying to convince you.