Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

We are top 5? Hilarious. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2945855-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2021-mlb-draft

Bleacher Report isn't exactly a prospect expert.  The O's should have Adley and Grayson in the top 10, plus Hall, Henderson, and Westburg in top 100. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Bleacher Report isn't exactly a prospect expert.  The O's should have Adley and Grayson in the top 10, plus Hall, Henderson, and Westburg in top 100. 

I’ve seen lists that have us 5th, and lists that have us outside the top 10.   Take your pick, it’s all subjective.   But obviously our farm system is much improved over the last few years.  

[Bmorebirds24]

2 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

We are top 5? Hilarious. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2945855-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2021-mlb-draft

You pick that outlet to be your rankings? I can find 3-4 saying O’s are top 5. 5th to be exact. 
I’ve asked multiple times where you get your information for why you do or don’t like a player being drafted and you refuse to answer. 
If BR is your way of learning you should expand your horizon. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

4 hours ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

You pick that outlet to be your rankings? I can find 3-4 saying O’s are top 5. 5th to be exact. 
I’ve asked multiple times where you get your information for why you do or don’t like a player being drafted and you refuse to answer. 
If BR is your way of learning you should expand your horizon. 

The Orioles haven’t won a world championship since 1983 and won’t again until Peter passes and sale is complete. Why fans think these farm system ratings are a victory is funny. If you notice in particular, we have very few high ceiling guys in comparison to other teams because the great Elias is scared to death to draft a pitcher in the top rounds because of past failures and insists on skipping over drafting a stud SS in Lawlar for a corner OF, but hey, I am sure you are right, the Orioles are headed for greatness, carry on.

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Agree.   We’re not going to contend next year, so we should get as much future value as we can.  

Exactly. We should trade him to the highest bidder. We need to target 2023 and beyond. I think we could a Castro like return for Paul Fry. 

[Sports Guy]

On 7/19/2021 at 2:19 AM, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I know when you are trying to close the gap in the AL East, you don’t take a RF (Kerstad) over a LH pitcher (Lacy) and another corner OFer (he’s not a CFer) over a stud SS (Lawlar who the BoSox quickly gobbled up) AND are scared to take a pitcher in the first round…. that’s a pretty poor plan to compete. But people will makes excuses for Elias just like they did DD, AM, joe jordan, etc. A culture of losing will do that. 

They should have taken Lawlar but I’m glad they took Kjerstad over Lacy, at least at the time.  We will have to wait and see what happens with Kjerstad’s health but Lacy is far from a sure thing to stick as a starter. 
 

His ERA is approaching 5 and he has walked 37 batters in 49.1 IP this year.  The K numbers are great and he isn’t giving up hits or homers.  Those are great signs for the future but the walks are an issue.  The control and command were potential road blocks for him coming into the draft and so far, they are showing to be an issue.

Its like Martin.  The question marks were position and would he hit for enough power.  Both of those issues are showing as well.

Now, this is one half of one season.  Obviously that’s a SSS and at least they are playing (not that Kjerstad not playing is anyone’s fault) but these weren’t flawless players that the Os passed on, despite how some are acting.

[Camden_yardbird]

4 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

The Orioles haven’t won a world championship since 1983 and won’t again until Peter passes and sale is complete. Why fans think these farm system ratings are a victory is funny. If you notice in particular, we have very few high ceiling guys in comparison to other teams because the great Elias is scared to death to draft a pitcher in the top rounds because of past failures and insists on skipping over drafting a stud SS in Lawlar for a corner OF, but hey, I am sure you are right, the Orioles are headed for greatness, carry on.

This is partly right.  Sustained competitiveness is a mix of factors.  The owner is one, and the current ownership certainly doesn't help.  The farm is one, and Elias seems to be improving that despite what looks like less than idea (initial) draft returns.  I question whether Elias has all the other skills necessary to build a sustain successful team. 

The Rays, Oakland and Indians succeed despite low payrolls because they do everything else right.

The Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox succeed because high payrolls allow them to take risks, write off failures and outspend on things like player development.

The Orioles don't do any one thing particularly well.  Good farm systems are, in most cases, ephemeral.  They need develop successful habits.  They need to overcome what heretofore has been shaky ownership, a lack of international spending, and player preparation.  

They don't need to solve all those problems, they can succeed with the current ownership if they can excel in other areas.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

This is partly right.  Sustained competitiveness is a mix of factors.  The owner is one, and the current ownership certainly doesn't help.  The farm is one, and Elias seems to be improving that despite what looks like less than idea (initial) draft returns.  I question whether Elias has all the other skills necessary to build a sustain successful team. 

The Rays, Oakland and Indians succeed despite low payrolls because they do everything else right.

The Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox succeed because high payrolls allow them to take risks, write off failures and outspend on things like player development.

The Orioles don't do any one thing particularly well.  Good farm systems are, in most cases, ephemeral.  They need develop successful habits.  They need to overcome what heretofore has been shaky ownership, a lack of international spending, and player preparation.  

They don't need to solve all those problems, they can succeed with the current ownership if they can excel in other areas.

Yeah, you’re right. 
 

But I don’t want to see an Angelos hold up a WS trophy. I mean, beggars can’t be choosers, I’m sure I’ll be too delirious in joy to really care if that were to happen. 
 

They might be able to succeed with the current ownership, it’s true. I just hate the idea of an Angelos hoisting that trophy and thinking they did a great thing after all the years of havoc they’ve wreaked on this fan base. 

[Camden_yardbird]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, you’re right. 
 

But I don’t want to see an Angelos hold up a WS trophy. I mean, beggars can’t be choosers, I’m sure I’ll be too delirious in joy to really care if that were to happen. 
 

They might be able to succeed with the current ownership, it’s true. I just hate the idea of an Angelos hoisting that trophy and thinking they did a great thing after all the years of havoc they’ve wreaked on this fan base. 

I agree, the Angelos ownership has definitely been feast and famine, with far too much ownership meddling.  I think ownership change is not only inevitable, but also more than likely to help the Orioles speed up organizational rebuild, than any other change that can be made.

Then again I couldn't wait for Selig to go, celebrated his departure, but now wonder whether Manfred isn't worse in some ways.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I agree, the Angelos ownership has definitely been feast and famine, with far too much ownership meddling.  I think ownership change is not only inevitable, but also more than likely to help the Orioles speed up organizational rebuild, than any other change that can be made.

Then again I couldn't wait for Selig to go, celebrated his departure, but now wonder whether Manfred isn't worse in some ways.

Manfred is easily worse.  

[Moose Milligan]

26 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I agree, the Angelos ownership has definitely been feast and famine, with far too much ownership meddling.  I think ownership change is not only inevitable, but also more than likely to help the Orioles speed up organizational rebuild, than any other change that can be made.

Then again I couldn't wait for Selig to go, celebrated his departure, but now wonder whether Manfred isn't worse in some ways.

I didn't think Bud was all that bad.  Goofy, folksy, sure.  The PED thing was...well, everyone was complicit, he turned a blind eye to it.  So did the owners and players.  

Manfred is terrible.

[Bmorebirds24]

10 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

The Orioles haven’t won a world championship since 1983 and won’t again until Peter passes and sale is complete. Why fans think these farm system ratings are a victory is funny. If you notice in particular, we have very few high ceiling guys in comparison to other teams because the great Elias is scared to death to draft a pitcher in the top rounds because of past failures and insists on skipping over drafting a stud SS in Lawlar for a corner OF, but hey, I am sure you are right, the Orioles are headed for greatness, carry on.

Nobody is saying or implying that a high ranking farm system is a victory. I asked and asked where and how you get your information on the guys drafted. You showed your source as BR. Nothing wrong with that we all have our ways. Now I think it says a lot when you have a bottom 5 and moved up in a few years when he was left with scraps. 
As for drafting studs baseball is the biggest crap shoot of the major sports. If you hate the family owning the team that’s fine. You don’t like Elias , that’s fine. 
To say this team has no light at the end of the tunnel when Elias still hasn’t put a stamp on the major league roster it’s premature. Do I have questions and believe he has flaws? Absolutely! Doesn’t mean he’s fully incompetent or hasn’t shown it yet. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

Nobody is saying or implying that a high ranking farm system is a victory. I asked and asked where and how you get your information on the guys drafted. You showed your source as BR. Nothing wrong with that we all have our ways. Now I think it says a lot when you have a bottom 5 and moved up in a few years when he was left with scraps. 
As for drafting studs baseball is the biggest crap shoot of the major sports. If you hate the family owning the team that’s fine. You don’t like Elias , that’s fine. 
To say this team has no light at the end of the tunnel when Elias still hasn’t put a stamp on the major league roster it’s premature. Do I have questions and believe he has flaws? Absolutely! Doesn’t mean he’s fully incompetent or hasn’t shown it yet. 

We’ve had this discussion a few times, but it’s a bit of an overstatement to say Elias was left with scraps.   Mountcastle, Rodriguez, Hall, Hays, Baumann, and various others were in the system.   Elias has stated directly that he felt there was more talent in the system when he arrived than had been acknowledged by the various pundits who do organizational rankings.   

That said, it’s pretty clear that the system has improved significantly and a lot of players already in the system have benefitted from the updated development techniques.   Hopefully that will start showing up in the major league team soon.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve seen lists that have us 5th, and lists that have us outside the top 10.   Take your pick, it’s all subjective.   But obviously our farm system is much improved over the last few years.  

Sure.

But he's picked 1-1, 1-2 and 1-5.  He's been conservative with promotions to the majors.  

That's a recipe for an improved farm system.

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

But he's picked 1-1, 1-2 and 1-5.  He's been conservative with promotions to the majors.  

That's a recipe for an improved farm system.

 

Well, 1-5 hasn’t factored into these rankings yet and 1-2 has not been able to contribute.   But I don’t disagree.   I would have expected any new GM coming to a rebuild to improve the talent in the farm system by a good degree.

There are some across the board improvements I like, though.  The selectivity of the hitters is vastly improved.    The K rates of the pitchers are increasing.   The number of positive development stories seems to be outnumbering the disappointments by a good margin.   

The big caveat I’d have is the disappointment with Akin, Kremer and Lowther.