Keith Law on the Orioles draft

[Moose Milligan]

Keith Law did a draft breakdown for each AL East team. It’s on the Athletic. I think his takes are pretty fair, though I’m assuming what will get discussed here the most is his conclusion. 
 

Quote

For the second year in a row, Baltimore reached for a college bat, which I presume was meant to save money at that pick for over-slot selections later. Outfielder Colton Cowser (1) was one of the best college bats in the draft class, ranking 14th on my Big Board for his bat. He doesn’t miss fastballs and hits all manner of pitches, with a swing that looks geared for hard contact but maybe just 55 power. He’s a corner guy but profiles as an above-average regular there. He became the highest-drafted player in Sam Houston State history and just their second first-rounder ever (Glenn Wilson, 1980, also the school’s all-time WAR Leader). East Carolina infielder Connor Norby (2) hit .415/.475/.688 this spring, finishing with a strong showing against the power arms of Vanderbilt thanks to a compact swing and a whole-field approach. He has a fringy arm that limits him to second base but is solid defensively at that spot. I thought he was also a first-round talent, so the Orioles walked away with two guys ranked in my top 30.

Centerfielder Reed Trimble (2A) hit 17 homers for Southern Miss, but chases too many pitches out of the zone, especially changeups; all but three of his homers came on fastballs, the others on hanging sliders/curves. He’s definitely strong, and can really drive the ball when he gets his arms extended, but I question the pitch recognition here. He’s an above-average runner who should stay in centerfield.

I heard Kentucky outfielder John Rhodes’ (3) name mentioned several times in the same category as Norby, Tyler Black, and other college position players who might slip into the top two rounds, but Rhodes, unlike those other guys, didn’t perform: he hit .251/.397/.508, and even that’s misleading due to 18 HBP. (Deduct those HBP from the top and bottom and his OBP drops to .347.) There’s no power from his legs in his approach right now, so while his plate discipline is fine, he’s not getting hits on balls in play like an elite college hitter should be. He’s an average runner and will probably play a corner outfield spot. He’ll turn 21 in August.

Arizona outfielder Donta’ Williams (4) and Texas-Arlington right-hander Carlos Tavera (5) are both college seniors, with Tavera turning 23 in October. Williams is a 55/60 runner who lets the ball travel at the plate and walked more than he struck out this year and last year pre-lockdown. If he stays in center he has a chance to be a soft regular. Tavera has a decent slider at 82-84 and missed a lot of bats this year with all three of his main pitches, enough to send him out as a starter with a little back-end starter potential. He’s the first guy I’ve ever come across who started at a four-year school, transferred to a JUCO (Weatherford), and then returned to the same four-year school to finish up. Good for him.

Collin Burns (6) is a plus runner with a slappy swing that never resulted in any production until this year, when he hit .353/.410/.571 for Tulane. He’ll go out as a shortstop, at least, but I’d like to see a lot more patience given how little power he’s likely to show. The one high school player they took in the entire draft was Creed Willems (8), an unathletic catcher from Texas with some raw strength but a no-stride approach. He was committed to TCU but has already said he’ll sign with the O’s. Fresno State third baseman/left fielder Ryan Higgins (9) is interesting — he can clearly hit, and has some pop, but has no position. So, if they’re really saving cash on Cowser, and took college seniors in the fourth and fifth rounds, where did all the money go?

 

[coe76]

For some reason I feel like Law has always been hyper critical of the O’s. Some of it deserved, yes, but still, his take on the draft seems a bit snarky.

[Can_of_corn]

If 1-5 looks under, 2 is under and the only HS has already stated he's signing than yeah I think it's fair to ask where money is going.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, coe76 said:

For some reason I feel like Law has always been hyper critical of the O’s. Some of it deserved, yes, but still, his take on the draft seems a bit snarky.

He’s always pretty critical and snarky, no matter the team.   I think a lot of people agree with this particular take.  

[bpilktree]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If 1-5 looks under, 2 is under and the only HS has already stated he's signing than yeah I think it's fair to ask where money is going.

That is my biggest argument of this draft.  They seemed to pick under slot early on to save up for some over slot guys that have lots of upside.  I don’t see it in this draft class though. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

People will make excuses for Elias for another 10 bad drafts as Martin & Lawlar have great careers with the Blue Jays & Sox. This draft in particular was just plain awful. Last year, at least I saw the logic despite not agreeing with it but what a demoralizing approach when trying to close the gap in organizational talent (largely between the two above mentioned teams).
 

 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

People will make excuses for Elias for another 10 bad drafts as Martin & Lawlar have great careers with the Blue Jays & Sox. This draft in particular was just plain awful. Last year, at least I saw the logic despite not agreeing with it but what a demoralizing approach when trying to close the gap in organizational talent (largely between the two above mentioned teams).
 

 

Martin doesn't have an XBH yet this month

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Martin doesn't have an XBH yet this month

At least he is playing baseball. Lacy is the guy I wanted but both will likely be better than Kerstad. Are you going to tell me how much Lawlar stinks too?

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

At least he is playing baseball. Lacy is the guy I wanted but both will likely be better than Kerstad. Are you going to tell me how much Lawlar stinks too?

You are the only one saying players, who you have no clue about, stink.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

At least he is playing baseball. Lacy is the guy I wanted but both will likely be better than Kerstad. Are you going to tell me how much Lawlar stinks too?

A lot of people criticized the Kjerstad pick.   I didn’t like it but I had an open mind about how the strategy would play out.  Unfortunately, the myocarditis has made it impossible to know how Kjerstad would have done if healthy.   That’s not Elias’ fault.   

I think this year’s draft is more easily criticized than last year’s for a couple of reasons:

1.  It appears we may not have spent the underslot money from the first round to pick up high upside guys later in the draft.   At a minimum, he didn’t get high school guys.   

2.  The skew towards hitters seems highly questionable.   

I gave this year’s draft a preliminary grade of D in the poll.   But that doesn’t mean I’m not keeping an open mind.  We won’t know if this draft was good or bad for another 5+ years.   As to Lawler, I would have liked to get him but we really don’t know if he’ll be better or worse than Cowser.    At this point I’m rooting for Cowser.  


 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A lot of people criticized the Kjerstad pick.   I didn’t like it but I had an open mind about how the strategy would play out.  Unfortunately, the myocarditis has made it impossible to know how Kjerstad would have done if healthy.   That’s not Elias’ fault.   

I think this year’s draft is more easily criticized than last year’s for a couple of reasons:

1.  It appears we may not have spent the underslot money from the first round to pick up high upside guys later in the draft.   At a minimum, he didn’t get high school guys.   

2.  The skew towards hitters seems highly questionable.   

I gave this year’s draft a preliminary grade of D in the poll.   But that doesn’t mean I’m not keeping an open mind.  We won’t know if this draft was good or bad for another 5+ years.   As to Lawler, I would have liked to get him but we really don’t know if he’ll be better or worse than Cowser.    At this point I’m rooting for Cowser.  


 

With the number of college bats selected I think we will know if this draft was bad in three years.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

With the number of college bats selected I think we will know if this draft was bad in three years.

I don’t.   Not everyone progresses at the same rate.   Case in point, Robert Neustrom, college OF drafted in the 5th round in 2018.   Is he going to be a major league contributor?   Can’t tell yet.   

I’d put it this way: sometimes you can tell after three years if a draft was good.   But you can rarely be sure it was bad.    
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t.   Not everyone progresses at the same rate.   Case in point, Robert Neustrom, college OF drafted in the 5th round in 2018.   Is he going to be a major league contributor?   Can’t tell yet.   

I’d put it this way: sometimes you can tell after three years if a draft was good.   But you can rarely be sure it was bad.    
 

I say in three years you will know if it is bad but you might not know if it was good. 

If Neustrom fails at this point he still wasn't a bad pick, but if he makes it, even for a cup of coffee, he's a good pick.

 

[PeteCanes]

It’s disappointing that they didn’t take the high ceiling in Lawler.  It’s not like they took some kind of Hobgood though, Cowser has been highly rated all year.  

[PeteCanes]

2 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

People will make excuses for Elias for another 10 bad drafts as Martin & Lawlar have great careers with the Blue Jays & Sox. This draft in particular was just plain awful. Last year, at least I saw the logic despite not agreeing with it but what a demoralizing approach when trying to close the gap in organizational talent (largely between the two above mentioned teams).
 

 

I see BB Reference has Martin listed as a 3B SS and CF with a .775 OPS in AA.  Not too shabby I guess.