Keith Law on the Orioles draft

[BohKnowsBmore]

17 minutes ago, PeteCanes said:

I see BB Reference has Martin listed as a 3B SS and CF with a .775 OPS in AA.  Not too shabby I guess.  

Hasn’t played 3b in the minors. 
 

fielding percentage isn’t the best stat to measure defense, but an .895 is pretty brutal. (SS pct at AA)

[camdencrush]

Nothing ages better than a forum poster saying a draft is terrible.  I remember the outrage at GrayRod.

I was similarly upset but then i realized that I don’t know crap about any of these players and i doubt anyone here knows much about them either.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, camdencrush said:

Nothing ages better than a forum poster saying a draft is terrible.  I remember the outrage at GrayRod.

I was similarly upset but then i realized that I don’t know crap about any of these players and i doubt anyone here knows much about them either.

I mean, it depends.  My rant about what a poor pick Hobgood was aged like a fine wine.

[PeteCanes]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean, it depends.  My rant about what a poor pick Hobgood was aged like a fine wine.

It was a horrific pick

[ThomasTomasz]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

A lot of people criticized the Kjerstad pick.   I didn’t like it but I had an open mind about how the strategy would play out.  Unfortunately, the myocarditis has made it impossible to know how Kjerstad would have done if healthy.   That’s not Elias’ fault.   

I think this year’s draft is more easily criticized than last year’s for a couple of reasons:

1.  It appears we may not have spent the underslot money from the first round to pick up high upside guys later in the draft.   At a minimum, he didn’t get high school guys.   

2.  The skew towards hitters seems highly questionable.   

I gave this year’s draft a preliminary grade of D in the poll.   But that doesn’t mean I’m not keeping an open mind.  We won’t know if this draft was good or bad for another 5+ years.   As to Lawler, I would have liked to get him but we really don’t know if he’ll be better or worse than Cowser.    At this point I’m rooting for Cowser.  


 

The thing about Cowser is that some teams have started picking up on the hit tool guys again.  It could be a switch in philosophy, but Nick Madrigal and Nick Gonzales seem to have started this trend…..if you can call it a trend right now.  Cowser looks similar, but could have more power than either of them.  Law is probably the outlier on Cowser at the low end (14) with FanGraphs being on the high end (6), with the rest of the rankings being somewhere between 9-11.  

In a vacuum, I really like going with a hit tool guy.  

[ChosenOne21]

If Keith Law is so great at evaluating draft prospects, why hasn't any MLB team hired him yet?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

If Keith Law is so great at evaluating draft prospects, why hasn't any MLB team hired him yet?

He has worked for a ML team in the past.

I'm guessing the money and perks are a lot better on this side.

[ChosenOne21]

56 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He has worked for a ML team in the past.

I'm guessing the money and perks are a lot better on this side.

Fair enough. Looks like he left the Blue Jays because ESPN offered him more money. Didn't know that he ever worked in MLB. I always assumed he was one of those talking heads being fed second-hand scouting reports that some people here think know prospects better than MLB front offices

[Three Run Homer]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I say in three years you will know if it is bad but you might not know if it was good. 

If Neustrom fails at this point he still wasn't a bad pick, but if he makes it, even for a cup of coffee, he's a good pick.

 

My definition of a good pick is someone who provides positive WAR at the major league level.   Of course that implies that most picks are bad picks.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

My definition of a good pick is someone who provides positive WAR at the major league level.   Of course that implies that most picks are bad picks.  

Harsh.  So if a guy gets picked in the 15th round, makes it to the majors and puts up -.2 WAR over three seasons that's a bad pick?

[Hallas]

13 hours ago, camdencrush said:

Nothing ages better than a forum poster saying a draft is terrible.  I remember the outrage at GrayRod.

I was similarly upset but then i realized that I don’t know crap about any of these players and i doubt anyone here knows much about them either.

I honestly didn't realize Gray Rod was so heavily panned.  I had to go back and read the draft thread.  I really liked the pick.

 

Thinking back, I thought the comparison to Hobgood wasn't all that great.  I don't like to go by physical appearences, but GrayRod clearly had a better handle on how to build his body appropriately for baseball and he carried his weight much, much better.  Also, Hobgood was a good 20-30 lbs heavier while being shorter.

[webbrick2010]

So can we say now that the O's are not going to spend their draft allotment?

Saved over 1 million on first round, with no obvious over-slot guys. I kept hearing that it was okay to go under-slot to use the money on later high upside difficult signees, and folks didn't seem to want to believe that the strategy was just a directive from Angelos to save money, similar to all of the other cost savings like slashing broadcast staff.

[bobmc]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

So can we say now that the O's are not going to spend their draft allotment?

Saved over 1 million on first round, with no obvious over-slot guys. I kept hearing that it was okay to go under-slot to use the money on later high upside difficult signees, and folks didn't seem to want to believe that the strategy was just a directive from Angelos to save money, similar to all of the other cost savings like slashing broadcast staff.

They may use it on their last selection in the draft (Trendon Craig) - he needs inducement to forgo his commitment to NC State.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

So can we say now that the O's are not going to spend their draft allotment?

Saved over 1 million on first round, with no obvious over-slot guys. I kept hearing that it was okay to go under-slot to use the money on later high upside difficult signees, and folks didn't seem to want to believe that the strategy was just a directive from Angelos to save money, similar to all of the other cost savings like slashing broadcast staff.

I think we can all wait a couple of weeks and see how much they actually spend.

I've got the pitchfork ready and the barrel of tar out.  You got feathers?

[webbrick2010]

49 minutes ago, bobmc said:

They may use it on their last selection in the draft (Trendon Craig) - he needs inducement to forgo his commitment to NC State.

Wow he must be good to get 1 million over slot in the last round of the draft.... not going to happen

O's save 1 million dollars on the draft, now how much can they save in international pool??

God I hope they are close to selling this team