Keith Law on the Orioles draft

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'm just making the point that you felt pretty strongly about Martin too.   Do you think maybe you were wrong on that one?    

Do you think Elias, the guy who is actually paid to make these decisions and has access to scouts all over the country, was wrong about Kjerstad?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think Elias, the guy who is actually paid to make these decisions and has access to scouts all over the country, was wrong about Kjerstad?

The way things have gone for Kjerstad Elias can only be proven right not wrong.

If he gets healthy and performs then Elias was right.  If that doesn't happen the health issues, which Elias can't be blamed for, are so overwhelming that we won't be able to probably judge what he might have been. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

Lol what a bump.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think Elias, the guy who is actually paid to make these decisions and has access to scouts all over the country, was wrong about Kjerstad?

Dumb question,  even for you.  How would anyone be able to answer that question to this point? 

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The way things have gone for Kjerstad Elias can only be proven right not wrong.

If he gets healthy and performs then Elias was right.  If that doesn't happen the health issues, which Elias can't be blamed for, are so overwhelming that we won't be able to probably judge what he might have been. 

 

Are you stating your opinion or just doing your usual thing?

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Are you stating your opinion or just doing your usual thing?

I suppose it's my opinion but come on now if he doesn't make it how can you separate the heath stuff when evaluating the pick?

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I suppose it's my opinion but come on now if he doesn't make it how can you separate the heath stuff when evaluating the pick?

Stop doing your usual thing! 

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I suppose it's my opinion but come on now if he doesn't make it how can you separate the heath stuff when evaluating the pick?

I'm not sure I understand the question.  First, there's no way you can ding Elias for the problems Kjerstad has had.  100% bad luck.

Secondly, if Kjerstad doesn't perform as hoped, I chalk it up to him being a bad pick.  Unless someone can tell me the myocarditis is still affecting him, I don't buy the fact that the long layoff has any longterm effect on him.  It's my opinion that he's recovered, will at some point this year or next be at 100% full strength and still possess the same skills he had when drafted.

I fully expect him to play this summer and finish the season at Aberdeen or Bowie and start next season no lower than Bowie.   

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I'm not sure I understand the question.  First, there's no way you can ding Elias for the problems Kjerstad has had.  100% bad luck.

Secondly, if Kjerstad doesn't perform as hoped, I chalk it up to him being a bad pick.  Unless someone can tell me the myocarditis is still affecting him, I don't buy the fact that the long layoff has any longterm effect on him.  It's my opinion that he's recovered, will at some point this year or next be at 100% full strength and still possess the same skills he had when drafted.

I fully expect him to play this summer and finish the season at Aberdeen or Bowie and start next season no lower than Bowie.   

 

 

Right you can't ding Elias.  

I guess you are a harsher judge than I am?

He's missed two years at this point.  He spent a large portion of that time restricted in what activities he could do.  There could be lingering effects from his illness.  Is he the athlete he was when he was drafted?  Has his ceiling been permanently lowered?

The margin between success and failure is so small

 

 

 

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right you can't ding Elias.  

I guess you are a harsher judge than I am?

He's missed two years at this point.  He spent a large portion of that time restricted in what activities he could do.  There could be lingering effects from his illness.  Is he the athlete he was when he was drafted?  Has his ceiling been permanently lowered?

The margin between success and failure is so small

 

 

 

 

Is there any reason to believe there are lingering effects to his illness?

You have a player like Josh Hamilton you missed 3 full years to drug problems. You have stories of pitchers who quit/retired from minor league ball, became teachers and bartenders and came back 2-3 years later and made it all the way to the majors.  The skills are still there. 

IMO, it's just a matter of him getting back to 100% health which I expect but has certainly been elusive. 

I guess we will agree to disagree. 

 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Dumb question,  even for you.  How would anyone be able to answer that question to this point? 

 

Well, you come on here acting the way you do that people shouldn’t have an opinion about these things because Elias and the baseball people have a track record and know these players better than we do.

You are jumping on another poster because he felt they picked the wrong guy.  You want him to say he was wrong about Martin even knowing that the info he had was what everyone was reporting and those reports suggested he was the better pick.

Now, the guy you worship and believe in, Elias,chose a guy who hasn’t done anything yet.  Maybe he will, maybe he won’t.  But at this point, the odds are he won’t be debuting for the Os until he is 25 years old. It’s possible he would debut at age 24 but I feel that’s not likely as they are going to likely take it slow with him.

Knowing what you know about how players develop, when they debut, ages, etc…do you feel the odds are with Kjerstad to be the best #2 pick Elias could have made?

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think Elias, the guy who is actually paid to make these decisions and has access to scouts all over the country, was wrong about Kjerstad?

Teams are wrong about guys they draft all the time.   But with Kjerstad, who knows?  His myocarditis was an unforeseeable event.   I’d love for him to get on the field for 80+ games so we can get some clue of what he is.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Is there any reason to believe there are lingering effects to his illness?

You have a player like Josh Hamilton you missed 3 full years to drug problems. You have stories of pitchers who quit/retired from minor league ball, became teachers and bartenders and came back 2-3 years later and made it all the way to the majors.  The skills are still there. 

IMO, it's just a matter of him getting back to 100% health which I expect but has certainly been elusive. 

I guess we will agree to disagree. 

 

Stuff like this has me open to the possibility.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33754917/

[RZNJ]

SG, you're confusing two things.  I hope Elias is very good at what he does. I see signs that confirm that hope. I neither adore him or think he's infallible as you continually (you call other people trolls) allude to.

I think you are very fallible.  I like to challenge people who have a little knowledge and think they know everything. 

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

SG, you're confusing two things.  I hope Elias is very good at what he does. I see signs that confirm that hope. I neither adore him or think he's infallible as you continually (you call other people trolls) allude to.

I think you are very fallible.  I like to challenge people who have a little knowledge and think they know everything. 

Look in the mirror and you are just lying about the Elias stuff but whatever, you aren’t worth the time to keep going over it.