Anatomy of a struggling offense

[Frobby]

For the month of August, while scoring 2.8 runs/game, the O’s are hitting .143/.205/.200 with runners in scoring position.  

The team actually is hitting a fair number of homers — 26 in 20 games — but it feels like they’re all solo shots.   

Overall, it seems the team is pressing.   Their BA is .240 and SLG .411 for the month, both slightly better than the team’s season average.   But they’ve only walked 33 times in 20 games, and hence their .282 OBP is the lowest of the year (tied with March/April when their BA was much lower).   

Hays and Mancini both have an OPS below .600 for the month, along with “usual suspects” Martin and Wynns.   Before he was cut, Franco had a .449 OPS for the month.   

My bottom line is there’s nothing irreparably broken with the offense if they just relax and be a bit more patient.   It’s not a good offense, but it’s capable of scoring 4+ runs a game.   

[interloper]

So many solo home runs. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, interloper said:

So many solo home runs. 

I just counted them up.  24 of 26 homers this month have been solos, two came with 1 runner on base.   

[interloper]

Just now, Frobby said:

I just counted them up.  24 of 26 homers this month have been solos, two came with 1 runner on base.   

Sheesh.. I wonder what the worst stretch like this has been. I recall some Buck years where we had a ton of power but not a lot of base runners. 

[spiritof66]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For the month of August, while scoring 2.8 runs/game, the O’s are hitting .143/.205/.200 with runners in scoring position.  

The team actually is hitting a fair number of homers — 26 in 20 games — but it feels like they’re all solo shots.   

Overall, it seems the team is pressing.   Their BA is .240 and SLG .411 for the month, both slightly better than the team’s season average.   But they’ve only walked 33 times in 20 games, and hence their .282 OBP is the lowest of the year (tied with March/April when their BA was much lower).   

Hays and Mancini both have an OPS below .600 for the month, along with “usual suspects” Martin and Wynns.   Before he was cut, Franco had a .449 OPS for the month.   

My bottom line is there’s nothing irreparably broken with the offense if they just relax and be a bit more patient.   It’s not a good offense, but it’s capable of scoring 4+ runs a game.   

Some of this probably reflects random variation, but when you get team averages that low you have to wonder.

Ben McDonald and Palmer have commented at times this season that an Oriole player seemed to be taking Don Long's advice by being a little more selective, by reducing his swings and by hitting to the opposite field. While I've been watching must less recently, I haven't heard those comments or seen the evidence for them lately. 

That takes me to some questions I've never heard an answer to:

• Oriole pitchers who were regarded as ML talents coming into the season have not performed well, and the team is dead last in ERA by a wide margin. Does the pitching coach bear some responsibility for that?
• The Orioles are next-to-last in the league in scoring runs (while playing in a park that favors offense). Does the hitting coach bear some responsibility for that?
• The team has not executed fundamentals well or played smart baseball, and has under-performed expectations. Does the manager bear some responsibility for that?
• Many, if not most, of the Orioles players have done much worse than had been expected. Was the general manager off i his judgements of their individual talent, and if so does the GM bear some responsibility?
• Is there anyone in the above groups who will accept any measure of responsibility for this season's debacle? Is there anyone willing to say he's made mistakes and what he's learned from them?

There is, or used to be, an old adage in baseball, hauled out when the manager of a terrible team was fired even though it was generally understood that the team was lacking in overall ability, that you fire the manager because you have to do something and you can't fire all the players. The Orioles seem intent on testing that adage by keeping Hyde but firing most of the players over a two- or three-year period. 

[waroriole]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

Sheesh.. I wonder what the worst stretch like this has been. I recall some Buck years where we had a ton of power but not a lot of base runners. 

The difference is those teams would’ve had 24 solo HR in a 10 game span. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Some of this probably reflects random variation, but when you get team averages that low you have to wonder.

Ben McDonald and Palmer have commented at times this season that an Oriole player seemed to be taking Don Long's advice by being a little more selective, by reducing his swings and by hitting to the opposite field. While I've been watching must less recently, I haven't heard those comments or seen the evidence for them lately. 

That takes me to some questions I've never heard an answer to:

• Oriole pitchers who were regarded as ML talents coming into the season have not performed well, and the team is dead last in ERA by a wide margin. Does the pitching coach bear some responsibility for that?
• The Orioles are next-to-last in the league in scoring runs (while playing in a park that favors offense). Does the hitting coach bear some responsibility for that?
• The team has not executed fundamentals well or played smart baseball, and has under-performed expectations. Does the manager bear some responsibility for that?
• Many, if not most, of the Orioles players have done much worse than had been expected. Was the general manager off i his judgements of their individual talent, and if so does the GM bear some responsibility?
• Is there anyone in the above groups who will accept any measure of responsibility for this season's debacle? Is there anyone willing to say he's made mistakes and what he's learned from them?

There is, or used to be, an old adage in baseball, hauled out when the manager of a terrible team was fired even though it was generally understood that the team was lacking in overall ability, that you fire the manager because you have to do something and you can't fire all the players. The Orioles seem intent on testing that adage by keeping Hyde but firing most of the players over a two- or three-year period. 

These are all good questions.   It is not a very talented roster, but I sure can’t say the talent has been maximized.   

[Just Regular]

The water is bad.   

The impression I gather from observations here is Hyde's teams have mostly played hard these last three years, but I feel the seeming Rutschman 2022-2028 choice is perhaps the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Whether Mancini, Means, one of the younger guys or whoever is the unnamed Oriole who gave that quote, I think many of us here get where it came from.

Entering the year I did expect The Franchise and a few of the better Orioles to fuel a more competitive finish going towards 2022 relevance, and think the fraction of the Next Good Team already up hoped so too.   It'll be a grind for the guys finishing out the year to show they care any more than the organization does.

A trope I believe in a little, I think from a James Historical Abstract from long long ago, was about catcher's immeasurables manifesting in team Won Loss record.   I want to say he had a whole Tettleton section in whatever early 90's version it was.   Anyway, the Rutschman choices this summer are giving my belief in the trope a little bit of the sweet sweet confirmation bias.

[LA2]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

The water is bad.   

The impression I gather from observations here is Hyde's teams have mostly played hard these last three years, but I feel the seeming Rutschman 2022-2028 choice is perhaps the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Whether Mancini, Means, one of the younger guys or whoever is the unnamed Oriole who gave that quote, I think many of us here get where it came from.

Entering the year I did expect The Franchise and a few of the better Orioles to fuel a more competitive finish going towards 2022 relevance, and think the fraction of the Next Good Team already up hoped so too.   It'll be a grind for the guys finishing out the year to show they care any more than the organization does.

A trope I believe in a little, I think from a James Historical Abstract from long long ago, was about catcher's immeasurables manifesting in team Won Loss record.   I want to say he had a whole Tettleton section in whatever early 90's version it was.   Anyway, the Rutschman choices this summer are giving my belief in the trope a little bit of the sweet sweet confirmation bias.

I'm sorry, but what quote are you referring to? Is it "The water is bad"?

[LA2]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

For the month of August, while scoring 2.8 runs/game, the O’s are hitting .143/.205/.200 with runners in scoring position.  

The team actually is hitting a fair number of homers — 26 in 20 games — but it feels like they’re all solo shots.   

Overall, it seems the team is pressing.   Their BA is .240 and SLG .411 for the month, both slightly better than the team’s season average.   But they’ve only walked 33 times in 20 games, and hence their .282 OBP is the lowest of the year (tied with March/April when their BA was much lower).   

Hays and Mancini both have an OPS below .600 for the month, along with “usual suspects” Martin and Wynns.   Before he was cut, Franco had a .449 OPS for the month.   

My bottom line is there’s nothing irreparably broken with the offense if they just relax and be a bit more patient.   It’s not a good offense, but it’s capable of scoring 4+ runs a game.   

There are teams with much worse OPS and/or BA than the Os that have scored a lot more runs. So it must be the lack of timely hitting that's to blame. The plethora of solo homers, the poor record with RISP.

[OriolesMagic83]

32 minutes ago, LA2 said:

There are teams with much worse OPS and/or BA than the Os that have scored a lot more runs. So it must be the lack of timely hitting that's to blame. The plethora of solo homers, the poor record with RISP.

Wasn't "clutch" hitting found to be dismissed as mostly an invention and a fantasy.  Great players almost always think they hit better in the clutch, they rarely do.  I think Eddie Murray was one of the rare players who actually hit better in the clutch.   If a player is trying harder in the clutch, is he trying less hard with the bases empty? 

[Moose Milligan]

With as low as the OBP is, the amount of solo shots make sense.  

 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, LA2 said:

I'm sorry, but what quote are you referring to? Is it "The water is bad"?

I don’t have The Athletic but think it was there yesterday or the day before.

The gist of it was how tough things are because the team is so outmanned, which of course everyone knows but for a player to actually give is not an everyday thing, even with the unnamed cloak.

[LA2]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Wasn't "clutch" hitting found to be dismissed as mostly an invention and a fantasy.  Great players almost always think they hit better in the clutch, they rarely do.  I think Eddie Murray was one of the rare players who actually hit better in the clutch.   If a player is trying harder in the clutch, is he trying less hard with the bases empty? 

Heard that story many times, but thanks. Do you accept poor BA's with RISP as a revealing stat? The Mets vs. the Dodgers this past weekend was a good example. is there another approach to the contradiction between the stats that were stated by FRobby and myself? (Mediocre BA and OPS, but horrible run production.)

[LA2]

57 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I don’t have The Athletic but think it was there yesterday or the day before.

The gist of it was how tough things are because the team is so outmanned, which of course everyone knows but for a player to actually give is not an everyday thing, even with the unnamed cloak.

I see. 2008 Oriole starting rotation felt this bad. Very outmanned.