What’s your OPS and WAR/162 prediction for Rutschman next year?

[Frobby]

Adley Rutschman currently has a .936 OPS in AAA (38 games) following .901 in AA (80 games).   Let’s have your predictions for his OPS as a rookie next year.

While we’re at it, take a shot at rWAR/162.   We’ll do that based on what percentage of the 162 games Rutschman is on the O’s roster, not the number of games he plays.   So, if he was called up after 40 games and posted 3.0 rWAR the rest of the way, that would be 4.0 rWAR/162.   

I’ll go first: .817 OPS and 3.1 rWAR/162.   
 

[Moose Milligan]

1.150 OPS and 13.6 rWAR/162.  

Anything less is failure.  

[Frobby]

FYI, Wieters’ rookie year was .753 OPS, 2.0 rWAR/162.   

[Sports Guy]

My first thought was similar to yours..3ish WAR guy and an OPS over 800.  
 

I think he’s very good in 2022 but not at the level he will be either.

[sevastras]

.964

5.8

ROY with MVP votes. José Abreu rookie season numbers. 

[Sports Guy]

Btw, I think his contribution is far greater than what his WAR ends up being.

[Philip]

I think it would be far more accurate to have an over/under. I hate WAR, claims to be so much more than it really is. So with that in mind, is AR going to be as valuable as Mullins? Mullins had a slump or two but he was basically money for the whole season, and AR Will have to deal with all the peripheral stress of his expectations, I fully expect him to have a slow start. So no I don’t think he’s going to equal Mullins, and catching his hard work, especially with our awful pitching. So I expect him to be over three. I expect the OPS to eventually be 20-30 points above league average.

 And I expect that he will make us very happy, until he is traded for prospects mid season.

[OriolesMagic83]

.840 OPS and 3.8 WAR/162

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think it would be far more accurate to have an over/under. I hate WAR, claims to be so much more than it really is. So with that in mind, is AR going to be as valuable as Mullins? Mullins had a slump or two but he was basically money for the whole season, and AR Will have to deal with all the peripheral stress of his expectations, I fully expect him to have a slow start. So no I don’t think he’s going to equal Mullins, and catching his hard work, especially with our awful pitching. So I expect him to be over three. I expect the OPS to eventually be 20-30 points above league average.

 And I expect that he will make us very happy, until he is traded for prospects mid season.

Over/under what?

You say not as valuable as Mullins, which I don’t even understand what that is supposed to mean but how are you measuring that if you aren’t using WAR?

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Over/under what?

You say not as valuable as Mullins, which I don’t even understand what that is supposed to mean but how are you measuring that if you aren’t using WAR?

No I was very clear. I don’t like WAR, but that’s what everybody’s using. Mullins, last time I checked was at I think 3.8? And I do not think in his first year AR Will be as valuable as Mullins was this year, so I think he will be above three but under Mullins.

Set the WAR Over/under at 2.5-ish? Maybe 3?

Edited September 28, 2021 by Philip

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

.840 OPS and 3.8 WAR/162

I think this is a reasonable projection for Rutschman. I think his OPS will be between .800 and .850, and Rutschman's impact on the pitching staff will outshine his offense. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

I think this is a reasonable projection for Rutschman. I think his OPS will be between .800 and .850, and Rutschman's impact on the pitching staff will outshine his offense. 

I just feel that his presence, leadership and on field play will make him tremendously valuable to this team immediately. Like he may only be worth 3-4 WAR but the team Could be 10-15 games better with just him on the team. 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I just feel that his presence, leadership and on field play will make him tremendously valuable to this team immediately. Like he may only be worth 3-4 WAR but the team Could be 10-15 games better with just him on the team. 

I'll have what you're having.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I just feel that his presence, leadership and on field play will make him tremendously valuable to this team immediately. Like he may only be worth 3-4 WAR but the team Could be 10-15 games better with just him on the team. 

Between pitch framing and not allowing as many passed balls/wild pitches will be a boost to the pitching staff. Severino ranks 58th out of 60 qualifying catchers in pitch framing this year and Wynns is 54th. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2021&team=&min=q&sort=4,1

[waroriole]

I think he’ll put up .280/.370/.450/.820 next year after getting called up in May. Not sure how that translates to WAR but I’d guess about 4.