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The Dylan Bundy Over/Under

Just Regular

By Just Regular
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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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How satisfied/dissatisfied would you be if the Innings Sponge acquired to open 2022 was from whatever shelf Dylan Bundy is on?

Bundy himself is a young free agent at 28 (will turn 29 in a few days).  It seems like ages ago that entering 2021, he was coming off a very successful 2020 and him vs. Gausman for most successful free agent to be for 2022 was a fair fight.

His year went Trout/Rendon/2021 Angels bad but as far as I can tell the shoulder strain that ended his season after his August 24 game against us has not mushroomed to a bigger injury.   He was not in anyone's Top 50 free agents, where AAV guesses went as low as the 1/8 range.   

As is tradition with him, Home Runs given up made the ERA 6.00 bad, but WHIP in the 1.35 ballpark and 84/34 K/BB in 90 innings.

I think 2022 Bundy would be a clear step up from 2021 Harvey.   His xFIP in the 4.60's from 2021 similar to Taillon, Hendricks, Tyler Anderson, though xFIP perhaps goofily thinks he'll give up home runs at an average rate.    I will be pleasantly surprised if Elias lands a materially better pitcher than him, given the whispers Sports Guy has shared.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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First of all, I’m a huge Dylan Bundy fan, and I wish him all the success in the world.   

However, we’d need to consider that from May 8 to the end of his season on August 24, Bundy pitched to a 7.41 ERA, whereupon he was shut down with shoulder soreness.   His FIP over that time was 6.72.    Knowing Bundy’s injury history, I can’t see signing him to a major league deal.   Wouid I be interested in a Harvey-like make good MiL deal?   Maybe.  
 

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LA2 Hangout Grand Counsel

LA2

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Dylan's last four starts were in August after his bullpen exile ended and he pitched to a low 3.31 ERA. Granted it was only 16.33 innings, but the slash line-against was only .183 / .279 / .383 / .663. Perhaps the beginning of a recovery before the injury?

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Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

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I would be happy to bring Bundy back, I wonder if a different pitching coach can get more out of him. He’s still young enough that he should still have some good production in him.

I don’t recall what his problem was here, and I don’t recall what his problem was in Anaheim, but he’s too good to be this bad. I just wonder if he would be willing to come back?

Meanwhile, do we have any interest in  Zach Davies?

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Bundy is not built to pitch in Camden Yard.  Homers galore.

2019- 17 games, 16 HR at home.  13 games, 13 HR on the road.

2018- 17 games, 22 HR at home.  14 games, 19 HR on the road.

2017- 16 games, 15 HR at home.  12 games, 11 HR on the road.

2016- 19 games, 9 HR at home.  17 games, 9 HR on the road.

I'm not seeing how OPACY is a big factor.  What am I missing?

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

2019- 17 games, 16 HR at home.  13 games, 13 HR on the road.

2018- 17 games, 22 HR at home.  14 games, 19 HR on the road.

2017- 16 games, 15 HR at home.  12 games, 11 HR on the road.

2016- 19 games, 9 HR at home.  17 games, 9 HR on the road.

I'm not seeing how OPACY is a big factor.  What am I missing?

You are missing that he got worst over the time he was here.  That he gave up 41 homers in 2018 and 29 in 2019.  So what if he gave them up on the road also.  He still gave up a lot at Camden Yards.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, wildcard said:

You are missing that he got worst over the time he was here.  That he gave up 41 homers in 2018 and 29 in 2019.  So what if he gave them up on the road also.  He still gave up a lot at Camden Yards.

I have no idea what you are trying to say.  What does his numbers declining have to do with OPACY?  Do you think the stadium contributed to his decline somehow?  How would that even work?

A much better argument to be made would be that given his HR rate he should avoid pitching in the AL East.  That's a reasonable argument.

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Have to agree with C_o_c.   Bundy’s homer-proneness is not a function of pitching in Camden Yards, and he’s no less likely to be successful here as anywhere else.  His career ERA at OPACY is 4.50, compared to 4.72 overall.   At this point, after the season he just had, it’s more a matter of whether he can be successful anywhere.   


 

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Yeah, I don't think I'm interested on anything more than a minor-league deal

I suppose Bundy falling to no guaranteed contract could happen.   It happened last year to Hamels and Porcello, who were crowd-sourced for $10M+, and ended up with no job to their liking before spring.   My guess is his youth might help him to something in the Galvis 1.5 to Iglesias 3.5 range, if Elias is limited to shopping in that not so rarefied air.

I believe Bundy would have more upside than many of the other pitchers who will sell their 2022 performances that inexpensively.   The way expectations have been set for 2022 in the handling of the best players, it feels a little bit academic how the Galvis guy and his pitching counterpart does.   

 

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yark14 Major Leaguer Rising Star

yark14

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I'd love for Bundy to come back to us...but from Dylan's perspective, why would he want to sign with us?  I would guess onyl if no other team gives him an offer.

He had a once-in-a-generation arm when he was younger, which is now a shell of itself because all the injuries.  If I were in his shoes, I would probably have some degree of resentment/blame towards the O's for the injuries that ruined his arm.  It's human nature.

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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

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40 minutes ago, yark14 said:

I'd love for Bundy to come back to us...but from Dylan's perspective, why would he want to sign with us?  I would guess onyl if no other team gives him an offer.

He had a once-in-a-generation arm when he was younger, which is now a shell of itself because all the injuries.  If I were in his shoes, I would probably have some degree of resentment/blame towards the O's for the injuries that ruined his arm.  It's human nature.

I think his arm was done when he got to us. Did he ever throw that famed cutter? Even in the minors?

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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47 minutes ago, yark14 said:

I'd love for Bundy to come back to us...but from Dylan's perspective, why would he want to sign with us?  I would guess onyl if no other team gives him an offer.

He had a once-in-a-generation arm when he was younger, which is now a shell of itself because all the injuries.  If I were in his shoes, I would probably have some degree of resentment/blame towards the O's for the injuries that ruined his arm.  It's human nature.

 

I'd be more inclined to blame dear old Dad in Dylan's shoes.

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OsFanSinceThe80s Hangout Grand Counsel

OsFanSinceThe80s

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48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I'd be more inclined to blame dear old Dad in Dylan's shoes.

Correct. If anything Bundy's workout regimen that was influenced by his father was most likely the cause of his injury problems. You want a player to have a good work ethic, but you can push it too far and that is likely the case with Bundy. 

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