Jump to content

Final Call: Who do the O's protect from the Rule 5 draft?

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

Posted
Posted

I remember when we drafted Ryan Flaherty, I think he was considered the best available rule five guy: A very high floor but a very low ceiling. His career WAR is minuscule(1.1)but he was a very valuable player for us for a few years and I’m glad we had him.

Here’s the question for the crowd:

Are other teams going to be looking at us and seeing, in the guys we leave unprotected, very low floors but high ceilings? Or high floors but low ceilings?

Pop was, I think, the latter, and the Marlins kept him.

What will they want? Is Grenier another Flaherty? Good glove Bad bat? Are we not protecting any reasonably potential starters like Sedlock(who retains that draft pick shine.)?

What do we want? I’m thinking if we want NOW Producers it might indicate Mike has flipped the switch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 140
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Frobby
Frobby

Good question.   It’s worth noting though that of the OH top 20 so far, only two are already on the 40 man roster (Lowther and Baumann) and only three others (Hall, Bradish, Vavra) need to be added.  

Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

With the top rated farm system shouldn't we be at the point in which we are using all 40 slots for our own guys?  If someone can't make another team's 40 why would we want to add them to our 26?

UMDTerrapins
UMDTerrapins

I feel like we're not focusing on the best part of today. It's not that we finally find out who we're going to protect from the Run V. It's that we soon get to geek out about which player we can steal

Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Philip said:

I remember when we drafted Ryan Flaherty, I think he was considered the best available rule five guy: A very high floor but a very low ceiling. His career WAR is minuscule(1.1)but he was a very valuable player for us for a few years and I’m glad we had him.

Here’s the question for the crowd:

Are other teams going to be looking at us and seeing, in the guys we leave unprotected, very low floors but high ceilings? Or high floors but low ceilings?

Pop was, I think, the latter, and the Marlins kept him.

What will they want? Is Grenier another Flaherty? Good glove Bad bat? Are we not protecting any reasonably potential starters like Sedlock(who retains that draft pick shine.)?

What do we want? I’m thinking if we want NOW Producers it might indicate Mike has flipped the switch.

We took Flaherty with the 4th pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.  I don’t recall much buzz about him ahead of time.   The best pick in that draft turned out to be Marwin Gonzalez, chosen 10th by the Red Sox and traded immediately to Houston (so I suspect it was really Houston that selected him).   Flaherty turned out a little differently than advertised: a better defender and not as good a hitter as expected.   He certainly had his moments for us.   

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted

Melewski:

They’re in: pitchers DL Hall and Kyle Bradish
Almost certainly in: pitcher Kevin Smith and infielder Terrin Vavra
I would do it, but will the club?: Robert Neustromand Bautista

If there turn out to be only four or six protected from this group, that leaves a lot of players who no doubt will get strong consideration even if not added. That partial list would include Adam Hall, Patrick Dorrian, Brett Cumberland, Cadyn Grenier, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta and Brennan Hanifee, to name just a few.

There are pitchers they like that seem real longshots, like Lebron, Nick Vespi, Cameron Bishop, Logan Gillaspie, Diogenes Almengo and Tim Naughton.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Melewski:

They’re in: pitchers DL Hall and Kyle Bradish
Almost certainly in: pitcher Kevin Smith and infielder Terrin Vavra
I would do it, but will the club?: Robert Neustromand Bautista

If there turn out to be only four or six protected from this group, that leaves a lot of players who no doubt will get strong consideration even if not added. That partial list would include Adam Hall, Patrick Dorrian, Brett Cumberland, Cadyn Grenier, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta and Brennan Hanifee, to name just a few.

There are pitchers they like that seem real longshots, like Lebron, Nick Vespi, Cameron Bishop, Logan Gillaspie, Diogenes Almengo and Tim Naughton.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

Interesting that Lebron was #3 in the organization in K rate. I could really see him getting snatched up if he isn't protected. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

Posted
Posted
On 11/15/2021 at 4:10 PM, Frobby said:

We took Flaherty with the 4th pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.  I don’t recall much buzz about him ahead of time.   The best pick in that draft turned out to be Marwin Gonzalez, chosen 10th by the Red Sox and traded immediately to Houston (so I suspect it was really Houston that selected him).   Flaherty turned out a little differently than advertised: a better defender and not as good a hitter as expected.   He certainly had his moments for us.   

Stepping in for Manny during the playoffs and playing as well as he did cemented him as one of those tongue-in-cheek Orioles legends. That and the gif. Fun player who I hope finds his way back to the organization in some capacity. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. It does seem like Dorrian has a higher chance of filling a need at some point. 

I also wonder whether we might see more guys dropped. Any reason we are keeping Martin, Bannon, and Diaz at this point? Nevin? If anyone claims those guys do we care? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hazmat Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Hazmat

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

I will be pretty upset if we lose Neustrom, especially if it's over someone like Dorrian.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. It does seem like Dorrian has a higher chance of filling a need at some point. 

I also wonder whether we might see more guys dropped. Any reason we are keeping Martin, Bannon, and Diaz at this point? Nevin? If anyone claims those guys do we care? 

Martin and Nevin are Elias’ guys. Bannon is an option at a clear hole. Diaz gets one more season to harness his tools. He might start in AA. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted (edited)

Like it or not, I think Martin and Bannon will be considered for the MLB roster in what will be a transition year. Dorrian might get protected. I think he does. Neustrom should get protected, but again not one of Elias’ guys. 
 

We’re starting to reach the point where except for AAA/MLB that 90% of the players in the org are Elias’ guys. 

Edited by sportsfan8703
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I really don't get the Dorrian love. Neustrom is a much better player

I’m not spewing Dorrian love. Just pointing out that he was a guy that Elias acquired in a trade. Just something to think about. Also, he plays 3B, which is right up there with SS as biggest positional need on the big club. People are dreaming about FA’s but it’s very likely that just with the pitching we trot out what we already have in our system to see what we have. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hazmat Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Hazmat

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Like it or not, I think Martin and Bannon will be considered for the MLB roster in what will be a transition year. Dorrian might get protected. I think he does. Neustrom should get protected, but again not one of Elias’ guys. 
 

We’re starting to reach the point where except for AAA/MLB that 90% of the players in the org are Elias’ guys. 

I'd like to see Bannon achieve a BA over .200 in AAA before he gets any consideration for the MLB roster.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting that Lebron was #3 in the organization in K rate. I could really see him getting snatched up if he isn't protected. 

You sure do love yourself some 28-year old, 5-11 right-handed reliever, with a 5/3 BB/9 between AA/AAA don't you? ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Posts

    • turtlebowl
      The 2024 Trade Deadline

      By turtlebowl · Posted

      I can agree with you that Holliday moving to center would be a great development for the roster makeup.  I do believe though that he is a Scott Boras client. With so many young players on the 40 man being represented by Boras, I wonder if they would force a move to the outfield for Holliday if he didn't want to make the switch. Sadly, these types of politics probably play a part of decision making by front offices. 
    • DrungoHazewood
      Craig Kimbrel 2024

      By DrungoHazewood · Posted

      I don't really remember Stanhouse because I was eight in 1979. He did pitch in the first MLB I ever saw in person in September of that year.  But he was a recurring topic of discussion on the radio and TV of my youth, with the Full Pack story repeated many times by Chuck and Brooks and Jon Miller and others. Stanhouse certainly had a weird profile for a late-inning reliever, walking more than he struck out and with mediocre K rates. But somehow had ERAs under 3.00 in '78-79 despite much worse FIPs. He only allowed four homers in 146 innings those two years, so I have to think he relied on a sinker and the pitcher-friendliness of Memorial Stadium.
    • Big Mac
      Bowden on some Os related deadline thoughts

      By Big Mac · Posted

      This Jack Flaherty?  The one with a lower FIP than any pitcher in our starting rotation? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml
    • Philip
      George Kirby, the guy pitching against us tonight...could make an interesting option for the the Orioles..

      By Philip · Posted

      Hancock has an injury history, mediocre stats, a blue page at baseball Savant, and wasn’t considered superior to Mike Baumann. Given their need for relief pitching, it is telling that they don’t have him on the big club. Woo is injured(though it’s a leg injury)but he’s only thrown 8starts/40 innings, about half what you’d expect from a starter so far. His trade value is diminished, so he’s probably more valuable to keep. When he comes back, the Mariners will need him in the pen, where another injury will have less impact. I’d love to get him, but the Ms keep him. Bryce Miller isn’t going anywhere. He's not a FA til 2030, plus, He’s starting tonight. Seattle isn’t going to deal from their rotation, especially someone as young as Miller. They may trade him, but only for an overpay, which ME won’t do.
    • casadeozo
      Starting Pitching avail in Free Agency in offseason vs Trade Deadline addition

      By casadeozo · Posted

      With Bradish’s injury, and the assumption Burnes will leave,  I keep seeing posters saying our rotation next year being Rodriguez, Kremer, Povich, Irvin, Suarez. Maybe McDermott comes up this year and can be a force in the rotation but it goes without saying Elias would not proceed with a rotation that thin. Theres been a lot of chatter about acquiring a pitcher at the deadline with control next year and maybe beyond. To me that is far from a certainty considering Elias’ history of being conservative in trades, and priding himself in the minor league depth. My preference would be to acquire someone like Scherzer if he’s available for the stretch run, and reassess the starting rotation in the offseason, either by trade or by free agency  With that said looking at Spotrac these are the starters I’d be most intrigued by, with those in bold top of the list: Corbin Burnes Walker Buehler Max Fried Max Scherzer Robbie Ray Luis Severino Jack Flaherty  Shane Bieber Nathan Eovaldi Frankie Montas  Yusel Kikuchi          
    • OsFanSinceThe80s
      Bowden on some Os related deadline thoughts

      By OsFanSinceThe80s · Posted

      I do agree on Cal Quantrill being a good pickup for the Orioles, but that would require the Rockies to be forward thinking and realizing they need to trade some of their veterans for prospects.
    • DrungoHazewood
      Craig Kimbrel 2024

      By DrungoHazewood · Posted

      I guess so. But strikeouts are like home runs - exceptionally dependent on era. Dazzy Vance twice led the NL in strikeouts as a starter with totals under 150. And strikeouts by a reliver isn't exactly a milestone benchmark - I had to look it up to know what the records are. Did you know the single-season record is by Dick Radatz, with 183? I didn't until 30 seconds ago. Hoyt Wilhelm holds the current record, and Kimbrel trails by 135. You are correct, I missed his 77 inning season with the Braves. Kimbrel is currently 103rd in career relief innings pitched. Between Tom Henke and Hector Carrasco.  As with most HOF arguments, I think my biggest beef is that they let a bunch of marginal guys in when trying to figure stuff out, and now the argument is "Well, if Bruce Sutter is in with just 12 years and 300 saves, then Kimbrel and Chapman and Franco and Hoffman and Smith and Lyle and Garber and Fingers and Francisco Rodriguez and Wagner and Mesa and Myers and on and on...." When if you really want to draw a clear dividing line it's Rivera and then everyone else.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...