I'm already over this offseason.

[interloper]

Also, just want to point out that it is literally not even Thanksgiving yet.

While I doubt that Elias will make many big moves this offseason, there's still a ton of off-season left, and there's going to be a lockout in December. So you could argue the time is now to make moves, but so many other teams haven't done anything yet also. I just think it's really early to be saying the off-season is a wash. It may ultimately be that for a lot of people, but IMO no one can say that for sure just yet. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m hoping Trey is dealt and we are able to get back some near Ml ready or Ml ready relief talent.  Would love to get 1 or 2 power arms for him. 
 

Of course, I will take the best deal but that’s the type of deal that I think is realistic and it helps an area of need.

I think he's going to have to put up a monster year for that kind of return. I think his market will be soft and we'll let him ride off into the free agency sunset. Which normally I'm not in favor of, but I don't have a problem with that for Trey.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think he's going to have to put up a monster year for that kind of return. I think his market will be soft and we'll let him ride off into the free agency sunset. Which normally I'm not in favor of, but I don't have a problem with that for Trey.

But this isn’t a huge return.  Look at our potentially best power arm for the pen..Bautista…he’s outside out top 20 prospects.  Getting a few guys outside a teams top 10 is possible and the Relief prospects are typically in those areas of a teams top 30 list.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

But this isn’t a huge return.  Look at our potentially best power arm for the pen..Bautista…he’s outside out top 20 prospects.  Getting a few guys outside a teams top 10 is possible and the Relief prospects are typically in those areas of a teams top 30 list.

Yeah I guess you're right. Ultimately it may come down to whether or not a team needs a 1B/DH at the deadline. The NL adding a DH would help tremendously. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

24 minutes ago, Philip said:

We should not extend Trey, or Mountcastle or AR. But especially not Trey. 
But that is a tangential topic.

If Trey does get extended to me that's a sign that the Angelos brothers are meddling into roster affairs outside of setting up budgetary limits. I'm going to assume unless I have a reason to believe otherwise it's Trey's last season in an Orioles uniform in 2022. 

Hoping Trey hits well enough that Elias can trade him mid-season even if the return won't be great. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

It’s kind of fun to follow the waiver wire knowing that we top position all offseason. So when FA signings do happen, there is usually a subsequent DFA for 40 man roster space. 

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Trey does get extended to me that's a sign that the Angelos brothers are meddling into roster affairs outside of setting up budgetary limits. I'm going to assume unless I have a reason to believe otherwise it's Trey's last season in an Orioles uniform in 2022. 

Hoping Trey hits well enough that Elias can trade him mid-season even if the return won't be great. 

 

There are several factors in extending Trey.  Will he sign a two year deal?  What price does he want for his FA year?  Does he required a no trade deal?   Any of these answered differently from what the O's want could foil an extension.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There are several factors in extending Trey.  Will he sign a two year deal?  What price does he want for his FA year?  Does he required a no trade deal?   Any of these answered differently from what the O's want could foil an extension.

There is very little incentive for a player who’s a year from free agency to sign a two year deal.    It doesn’t give him long term stability and that first year of FA is the most valuable commodity he has to sell.   

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

There is very little incentive for a player who’s a year from free agency to sign a two year deal.    It doesn’t give him long term stability and that first year of FA is the most valuable commodity he has to sell.   

On the other hand, a 2-year deal at a competitive AAV might be more appealing than hitting the market after another okay-ish year and only landing a 1-year deal somewhere. And he still would hit FA at age 32. 

But more likely you are right - his best bet is to bet on himself and test the market. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

There are several factors in extending Trey.  Will he sign a two year deal?  What price does he want for his FA year?  Does he required a no trade deal?   Any of these answered differently from what the O's want could foil an extension.

Well yeah, I was more meaning a lucrative, long term extension for Trey given the Orioles seemingly limited finances. If Trey hits well and signs a two year deal that is something I might support. 

It all depends on the roster makeup by the end of next season and if there is another 1B/DH to compliment Mountcastle. I think it isn't likely though with the prospect of Rutschman getting at bats at 1B/DH when he's not catching and already having Mounstcastle. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m hoping Trey is dealt and we are able to get back some near Ml ready or Ml ready relief talent.  Would love to get 1 or 2 power arms for him. 
 

Of course, I will take the best deal but that’s the type of deal that I think is realistic and it helps an area of need.

Mancini has minimal value. 100% cancer free perfectly healthy, he is still defensively limited. And Even though nobody’s going to publicly talk about it the fact is that he will always be damaged goods because of his health issues. Lots of teams would like to have him but nobody is going to give as much as he is worth to the Orioles.

Next year his arbitration cost will be expensive enough that the team will probably trade him for whatever they can get, but they won’t get very much. Mountcastle has more value, and it makes sense if you’re going to shop one of them, to shop Mountcastle because he would bring back a much better return, and Mancini can remain an adequate 1B/DH

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

Mancini has minimal value. 100% cancer free perfectly healthy, he is still defensively limited. And Even though nobody’s going to publicly talk about it the fact is that he will always be damaged goods because of his health issues. Lots of teams would like to have him but nobody is going to give as much as he is worth to the Orioles.

Next year his arbitration cost will be expensive enough that the team will probably trade him for whatever they can get, but they won’t get very much. Mountcastle has more value, and it makes sense if you’re going to shop one of them, to shop Mountcastle because he would bring back a much better return, and Mancini can remain an adequate 1B/DH

Mountcastle has more value because he has five years of service time remaining, to Mancini’s one.   In a year Mancini will be a free agent, so what’s the logic in trading Mountcastle and then having no 1B/DH when Mancini is a free agent a year from now?

I think people are underselling Mancini a little bit.   I think he will hit better in 2022.   There’s plenty of value in a 1B/DH if he can put up an .850 OPS or so.   And I think he will.  

[LookinUp]

I think it's definitely in the O's best interest to 1) wait for a new CBA just in case the NL gets a DH and 2) see how Mancini does in the first half and then decide to trade him at the deadline.

A real offseason where he can get in great shape and work on his game should be really beneficial to Trey.

[Ruzious]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mountcastle has more value because he has five years of service time remaining, to Mancini’s one.   In a year Mancini will be a free agent, so what’s the logic in trading Mountcastle and then having no 1B/DH when Mancini is a free agent a year from now?

I think people are underselling Mancini a little bit.   I think he will hit better in 2022.   There’s plenty of value in a 1B/DH if he can put up an .850 OPS or so.   And I think he will.  

I would doubt it considering he was considerably worse in the 2nd half of the season than the 1st (.791 OPS in the 1st half and .711 OPS in the 2nd despite having a higher BABIP in the 2nd half) and looked a bit slower as the season wore on.  And I think he'd love to get one extra year in the contract - it could make a huge difference in retirement planning for his family, but I doubt the O's will be willing to give him a 2nd year  other than a team option.    

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, owknows said:

I guess I really don't understand this reaction, or the desire to start accumulating the same kind of contracts that got us into this mess.

Your post says it all really.. although maybe you didn't see the underlying message.

That's Ubaldo money. That's Cobb money.

Ubaldo...  Cobb...

May as well have just opened the window and thrown the cash into the wind.

We have a bolus of players working through the organization. We should see some of the first wave hit the beach this year. And we should improve significantly..  Then a few strategic free agents. Then the next wave... and the next... and a continuum. At a sustainable price.

That's the model being sold... 

It takes a maddening level of patience to see it through. But if you can make it work.. you can compete perpetually against the deepest pockets in the sport.

So are you saying that any FA pitcher we spend in the 4/44 range is automatically going to end up like Ubaldo and Cobb?  Seems like you're implying that two bad FA contracts in that range would mean that any FA contract in that range would automatically end up like them.

And @Sports Guyis right.  4/44 shouldn't sink practically any franchise in this day and age.