Orioles signing Rougned Odor

[jabba72]

3 minutes ago, RocBball11 said:

Elias has done the exact opposite. From day one he has stated that they need to invest in baseball analytics, Latin America, and the minors. 

At the major league level he has stressed development over wins, contract flexibility, and free agents in one year deals that could be moved easily.  He has stated on numerous occasions when the young core is ready to compete the money will be there and the approach will change.

 

Well the two studs will be ready next year and it looks like its going to be a wasted season with them on it.. It wont count on their service clock, at least not until the new CBA is settled. Its possible it will count. Then it will really be a wasted season of two talents.

[Three Run Homer]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, keep Wells in relief if you want. What's not probable? where is the "rosey" part?

Will some players slip, sure. Heck we may find that none of the guy outside of Means are major league starters, but that would tell the team that they must acquire that pitching. Saying that, look at the stats of the guys they will be replacing. It's hard to be worse than what Lopez/Harvey/Kremer/Watkins/Akin/Eshelman did as starters in 2021. 

 

I don't know why we should expect better results in 2022 from Wells/Zimmerman/Lowther/Baumann/Bradish et al than we did from Akin/Kremer/Zimmerman/Lopez et al in 2021.  Akin and Kremer actually pitched pretty well as starters in the major leagues in 2020, so some optimism was justified going into 2021.  Meanwhile, none of the guys we are counting on as starting pitchers in 2022 (except for Means) pitched well as starters at AAA (let alone the majors) in 2021.  These guys all seem interchangeable to me--more likely to end up as middle relievers or AAAA starters than anything else.  

Moreover, we don't have any top-flight starting pitching prospects beyond GrayRod and D.L. Hall, and Elias doesn't like to draft pitchers.  If this team is ever going to contend, they are going to have to get at least 2-3 good starting pitchers from outside the organization.   Whether they do this now or next year, they are going to have to overpay because we aren't an established contender and because Camden Yards and the AL East are a bad environment to pitch in.   So they'd might as well start now.    

[wildcard]

Tony has had a lot to say in this thread about the rebuild.  I agree with most of it except the timeline.

I agree with Tony's take on Odor.  In fact I stated it early in this thread.   He is depth.  I like Urias at 2B and Mateo at SS.  There will be injuries and matchups which allow Odor to play  2B and Urias to slide over to SS.   I don't like any of these players at 3B.

My biggest difference with Tony is I think  the O's compete in 2023.  

What happens over the winter?   Elias just added Lyles who I think has the pitches to turn in the effectiveness he had with the Brewers in 2019.  The O's analytics and coaching will get him there.  Something he did not have with Pirates and Rangers.

I think Elias adds two veteran relievers (one will be left-handed),  Josh Harrison at 3B with his 741 OPS and good defensive play,  and a backup catcher that knows the AL.  I'd also  like to see Chris Ellis signed to a AAA contract.

I think Grayson, Adley, and Stowers will play most of 2022 in the majors and be difference makers.  All three will shine in ST. Grayson and Stowers may only be at AAA for a month to 6 weeks.

Infield: Mountcastle, Urias, Mateo, Harrison  with  Odor and Gutierrez as backups

Outfield: Hays, Mullins, Santander with Stowers after 6 weeks replacing McKenna who opens the season in the majors.  Having Stowers in the majors allows Hays and Santander to get the rest they need to play when healthy.  It also allows an OFer to DH if Mancini is traded at the deadline.

DH:  Mancini signed to a two year contract.  That allows him to not be rental at the deadline. 

SP: Means, Grayson, Lyles, T Wells, Bradish/Baumann for most  of the season.  Grayson and Bradish/Baumann spend April at AAA.   Zimmermann,  Lowther and A Wells fill in for the first month.   They can stay if they do well but probably go to AAA or the pen.  Grayson, T Wells, Bradish and Baumann have Innings limits so they will not pitch as much in August and Sept.   DL Halls innings are managed in the minors so he  can start in the majors for the last two months.  Zimmermann, Lowther, A Wells and Kremer try to prove themselves in the AAA rotation for most of the season and whoever does joins the team late in the season. Akin only has an effective fastball which makes him a reliever.

In 2023 the inning limits are gone for a rotation Means,Grayson, Hall, Lyles, Bradish, T Wells and Baumann

Sulser is good in late relief but the O's need two veteran relievers to be added.  That will solidify the back end of the pen and allow Tate, Lopez, Bautista, Scott, Fry, Baker and maybe Perez fill out middle and long relief along with starters that are not in the rotation.

With Westburg coming in late 2022 and Henderson in 2023  the team will be ready to compete in 2023.

 

[Can_of_corn]

You think the O's pitching guys are better than the guys the Pirates have?

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, RocBball11 said:

Elias has done the exact opposite. From day one he has stated that they need to invest in baseball analytics, Latin America, and the minors. 

At the major league level he has stressed development over wins, contract flexibility, and free agents in one year deals that could be moved easily.  He has stated on numerous occasions when the young core is ready to compete the money will be there and the approach will change.

 

Done the exact opposite of what?

And your first paragraph is stuff that almost every team does and you don’t need to lose in purpose for several years in a row to accomplish that.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Tony has had a lot to say in this thread about the rebuild.  I agree with most of it except the timeline.

I agree with Tony's take on Odor.  In fact I stated it early in this thread.   He is depth.  I like Urias at 2B and Mateo at SS.  There will be injuries and matchups which allow Odor to play  2B and Urias to slide over to SS.   I don't like any of these players at 3B.

My biggest difference with Tony is I think  the O's compete in 2023.  

What happens over the winter?   Elias just added Lyles who I think has the pitches to turn in the effectiveness he had with the Brewers in 2019.  The O's analytics and coaching will get him there.  Something he did not have with Pirates and Rangers.

I think Elias adds two veteran relievers (one will be left-handed),  Josh Harrison at 3B with his 741 OPS and good defensive play,  and a backup catcher that knows the AL.  I'd also  like to see Chris Ellis signed to a AAA contract.

I think Grayson, Adley, and Stowers will play most of 2022 in the majors and be difference makers.  All three will shine in ST. Grayson and Stowers may only be at AAA for a month to 6 weeks.

Infield: Mountcastle, Urias, Mateo, Harrison  with  Odor and Gutierrez as backups

Outfield: Hays, Mullins, Santander with Stowers after 6 weeks replacing McKenna who opens the season in the majors.  Having Stowers in the majors allows Hays and Santander to get the rest they need to play when healthy.  It also allows an OFer to DH if Mancini is traded at the deadline.

DH:  Mancini signed to a two year contract.  That allows him to not be rental at the deadline. 

SP: Means, Grayson, Lyles, T Wells, Bradish/Baumann for most  of the season.  Grayson and Bradish/Baumann spend April at AAA.   Zimmermann,  Lowther and A Wells fill in for the first month.   They can stay if they do well but probably go to AAA or the pen.  Grayson, T Wells, Bradish and Baumann have Innings limits so they will not pitch as much in August and Sept.   DL Halls innings are managed in the minors so he  can start in the majors for the last two months.  Zimmermann, Lowther, A Wells and Kremer try to prove themselves in the AAA rotation for most of the season and whoever does joins the team late in the season. Akin only has an effective fastball which makes him a reliever.

In 2023 the inning limits are gone for a rotation Means,Grayson, Hall, Lyles, Bradish, T Wells and Baumann

Sulser is good in late relief but the O's need two veteran relievers to be added.  That will solidify the back end of the pen and allow Tate, Lopez, Bautista, Scott, Fry, Baker and maybe Perez fill out middle and long relief along with starters that are not in the rotation.

With Westburg coming in late 2022 and Henderson in 2023  the team will be ready to compete in 2023.

 

If Elias gets a decent season out of Lyles he should be declared GM for Life and immediately go into the O's Hall of Fame and you will get the call of the century on OH. I hope it happens.
 

IF Lyles is successful - a big if - I would think he will be flipped at the deadline.

I do agree we are closer than some here think and there is a master plan to compete rather than sell the team.

One small difference, I don't think Stowers should come up to replace McKenna. He should have a full time job, whether it is due to injury or trading one or both Santander/Mancini. I also think Zimmerman should have a job in the MLB rotation unless there is an injury. He started in the rotation last year, did better than any of the young guys, and did nothing to lose the job other than getting hurt.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Philip said:

You're saying  a lifetime of ruining the team for number one picks is fine? 
Do you want to win 60 games next year and pick third in ‘23, or 72 games and pick 9th in ‘23?  After all, those wins are meaningless, right? 
That’s a serious question.

Next season, would you rather win ~50-60 and pick ~1-3 in 2023, or ~75 and pick 9 or 10 in 2023?

For me, it depends a little bit why we are winning more games.   

First, let me say that I hate watching a game where we lose.   I’ve never, ever rooted for the Orioles to lose a game because it would improve our draft position.   But, when the year is over, if we’ve had a bad season, I’d rather have a higher pick than a lower one.   

What I’m looking at to balance that is what does the improved record show?   Let’s say that Keegan Akin and Zac Lowther both stay in the rotation all year and pitch to a 4.50 ERA, Grayson Rodriguez comes up June 1 and throws to a 4.00 ERA, Adley puts up an .850 OPS, Hays stays healthy and has a good year, and Mullins has another good season.   And let’s say that as a result, the O’s win 70+ games.    Well, of course I’d rather have that than a year where all the young pitchers crap the bed again, Hays is hurt, Mullins is a fluke and Adley disappoints, and as a result we win under 60 games.    The inferior draft spot is far less important than the fact that our younger players are showing they can be a core that we add around.   

But if we are a few games better because a couple of veterans we signed to 1-2 year deals had better seasons than the guys they replaced, that’s less meaningful to me.   In that case I might prefer to have the better draft pick, in the cold light of day once the games are over.    Because what I really want is what Elias says he wants, i.e. to be a playoff caliber team as soon as possible, and to be able to be a consistently good team once we teach that point.

[Sports Guy]

https://theathletic.com/2992335/2021/12/02/myriad-os-thoughts-rougned-odors-signing-jordan-lyles-agreement-infield-murkiness-tending-to-tenders/
 

Wtf:

 

I’ve been told that signing Odor doesn’t mean the Orioles have stopped shopping for middle infield help — particularly at shortstop. Frankly, Odor isn’t guaranteed second base, but he’s the expected starter there now.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://theathletic.com/2992335/2021/12/02/myriad-os-thoughts-rougned-odors-signing-jordan-lyles-agreement-infield-murkiness-tending-to-tenders/
 

Wtf:

 

I’ve been told that signing Odor doesn’t mean the Orioles have stopped shopping for middle infield help — particularly at shortstop. Frankly, Odor isn’t guaranteed second base, but he’s the expected starter there now.

I'm not super surprised. If Odor is at all decent as a starter he would likely get traded like Galvis. If not, released like Franco. Probably should play him most days in the meantime. I just hope it doesn't come at the expense of Urias playing every day somewhere. 

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, if they won 10 more games because the young pitchers were way better, that’s a good right.

Secondly, who is to say the Orioles take the #1 guy, if there even is a consensus #1 guy?  It’s very possible that they could get the guy at 4 that they take 1.  Now, if there is a clear guy, I think they take him but just saying, it’s possible they don’t.  

If they win 68 games this year, that’s a huge jump but they still suck…at what point do we stop saying wins don’t matter because if a stupid draft pick?  
 

At some point, winning has to matter able it’s crazy to me, knowing how bad the franchise has been for most of the last 25 years, that anyone would be satisfied with continued losing.  Elias and the ownership have played the fan base better than a politician.  

You are missing the point, I was talking about last year. I agree with you that I want to see improvement with the young players this year and want to see us win around 70 games. 

 

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, RocBball11 said:

Elias has done the exact opposite. From day one he has stated that they need to invest in baseball analytics, Latin America, and the minors. 

At the major league level he has stressed development over wins, contract flexibility, and free agents in one year deals that could be moved easily.  He has stated on numerous occasions when the young core is ready to compete the money will be there and the approach will change.

 

Right, which I believe will start in 2022-23 offseason if things go well this season. The 1st wave of the top prospects should start arriving this year and next. That's when he should have a better idea of his depth and holes and make the appropriate moves which should include spending way more money.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are missing the point, I was talking about last year. I agree with you that I want to see improvement with the young players this year and want to see us win around 70 games. 

 

No, I’m not.  
 

If we entered this year feeling we have a few more good young starting pitchers and they showed real progress, I would rather have that than the #1 pick.  

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm not super surprised. If Odor is at all decent as a starter he would likely get traded like Galvis. If not, released like Franco. Probably should play him most days in the meantime. I just hope it doesn't come at the expense of Urias playing every day somewhere. 

He will because Urias really can’t play anywhere else everyday.

If Odor starts, it should be at third.  Gutierrez isn’t exactly good, so no harm done there.  Urias is a good player, so no reason to play a garbage player over him.

[HowAboutThat]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://theathletic.com/2992335/2021/12/02/myriad-os-thoughts-rougned-odors-signing-jordan-lyles-agreement-infield-murkiness-tending-to-tenders/
 

Wtf:

 

I’ve been told that signing Odor doesn’t mean the Orioles have stopped shopping for middle infield help — particularly at shortstop. Frankly, Odor isn’t guaranteed second base, but he’s the expected starter there now.

Why is Odor better than Urias?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Philip said:

Why is Odor better than Urias?

He’s not although he may be a tad better defensively.