Where do you think we can expect internal improvement?

[Frobby]

Just to get off the FA topic for a spell, where do you think it’s reasonable to expect some internal improvement this year?

1B/DH: Mountcastle is through his rookie year now, Mancini will never a year removed  from batting cancer.    Chances for internal improvement: 75% IMO.

2B/SS: Urias looks promising and Mateo is at least interesting.   We lose a half season of Galvis, who was steady if unspectacular.   Chances of internal improvement: 50%.

3B: Losing Franco is an automatic plus.   Gutierrez needs to prove he can hit at least a little, but even if he didn’t, he’d be better than Franco, who was worth -1.6 rWAR in 104 games.   Chances of internal improvement: nearly 100%, the question is by how much.   

C - Adley.   Chances of internal improvement:   Pretty much 100%, barring injury.   

OF: Mullins is likely down.   If Hays and Santander can stay healthy, they are likely up.   We may get more from the backup players but it’s hard to know.   Chances of internal improvement: 25%

SP: Here’s the great unknown.  On the one hand, it’s real hard to be worse than 5.99 ERA, 4.54 IP/start.   On the other hand, exactly who is it who will step up?  I note that both Marcel and Steamer project almost all of our pitchers to have better ERAs than last year.   I’m sure some of them won’t, but probably several will.  And, we have Grayson in the wings.   Chances of internal improvement: near 100%, but will it be enough to move the needle?

RP: Here’s another area where it would be hard to be worse.  5.70 ERA, 48% save rate last year.   I think moving Lopez to the bullpen will help, and guys like Scott and Fry are likely to rebound.  Tate could go either way.  On the other hand, Sulser might slip some.   Chances of internal improvement: 90%, though again, we’ll see if it’s enough to move the needle.   

Overall, I feel that the incumbent players as a whole are likely to show improvement.   The question is how meaningful will it be.    In terms of the W/L record, I think the degree to which the incumbent pitchers improve is the key.   We really need some of those guys who had bad debuts to rebound in 2022, and the bullpen needs to do a better job of holding leads.

[Sports Guy]

Those are some very high numbers

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Those are some very high numbers

Despite the skill Elias has shown as a GM, it is difficult to not improve when you are as bad as the 2021 Orioles.

[Camden_yardbird]

If the Orioles can bring in 2 players from outside the organization that will be here for the next playoff team (next 2-3 years), that is off season improvement.

As for internal improvement, its hard to go down hill from where they were.

[Aristotelian]

Akin showed some life at the end of the year. Tony still thinks highly of Lowther if he is given a longer leash, and Bradish is interesting. If Zimmerman can just maintain his production but stay healthier that will be a boost to the rotation. 

I think full season of Urias is more like 95% chance of improvement vs the Ruiz experiment. Same with Wells in the bullpen. 

 

[Porky]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Overall, I feel that the incumbent players as a whole are likely to show improvement.   The question is how meaningful will it be.    In terms of the W/L record, I think the degree to which the incumbent pitchers improve is the key.   We really need some of those guys who had bad debuts to rebound in 2022, and the bullpen needs to do a better job of holding leads.

I think the incumbent position players should show improvement collectively, but it might be relatively negligible factoring in Mullins' inevitable drop-off and unexpected injuries.

It really comes down to the pitching. GrayRod should be here over the summer, but I don't think our expectations can be that high for a rookie. Overall, I'm probably more pessimistic about the Orioles' internal pitching than most, but I don't really see the needle moving much for the pitching staff unless outside talent is brought in to supplement.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just to get off the FA topic for a spell, where do you think it’s reasonable to expect some internal improvement this year?

1B/DH: Mountcastle is through his rookie year now, Mancini will never a year removed  from batting cancer.    Chances for internal improvement: 75% IMO.

2B/SS: Urias looks promising and Mateo is at least interesting.   We lose a half season of Galvis, who was steady if unspectacular.   Chances of internal improvement: 50%.

3B: Losing Franco is an automatic plus.   Gutierrez needs to prove he can hit at least a little, but even if he didn’t, he’d be better than Franco, who was worth -1.6 rWAR in 104 games.   Chances of internal improvement: nearly 100%, the question is by how much.   

C - Adley.   Chances of internal improvement:   Pretty much 100%, barring injury.   

OF: Mullins is likely down.   If Hays and Santander can stay healthy, they are likely up.   We may get more from the backup players but it’s hard to know.   Chances of internal improvement: 25%

SP: Here’s the great unknown.  On the one hand, it’s real hard to be worse than 5.99 ERA, 4.54 IP/start.   On the other hand, exactly who is it who will step up?  I note that both Marcel and Steamer project almost all of our pitchers to have better ERAs than last year.   I’m sure some of them won’t, but probably several will.  And, we have Grayson in the wings.   Chances of internal improvement: near 100%, but will it be enough to move the needle?

RP: Here’s another area where it would be hard to be worse.  5.70 ERA, 48% save rate last year.   I think moving Lopez to the bullpen will help, and guys like Scott and Fry are likely to rebound.  Tate could go either way.  On the other hand, Sulser might slip some.   Chances of internal improvement: 90%, though again, we’ll see if it’s enough to move the needle.   

Overall, I feel that the incumbent players as a whole are likely to show improvement.   The question is how meaningful will it be.    In terms of the W/L record, I think the degree to which the incumbent pitchers improve is the key.   We really need some of those guys who had bad debuts to rebound in 2022, and the bullpen needs to do a better job of holding leads.

Why do you think Scott is likely to rebound? He’s not very good. He’s been pretty consistent throughout his career, his walk rate went down a little bit, but then it went back up.

I’ve been clear that I don’t like him and I wish he would go away, but I would be delighted to see him turn the corner, I just don’t see any indication that that is likely. What do you see?

[SilverRocket]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Why do you think Scott is likely to rebound? He’s not very good. He’s been pretty consistent throughout his career, his walk rate went down a little bit, but then it went back up.

His career numbers are better than his numbers last year, and he's 27 years old, so my default guess is he would put up something like his career numbers, which is a minor improvement.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Why do you think Scott is likely to rebound? He’s not very good. He’s been pretty consistent throughout his career, his walk rate went down a little bit, but then it went back up.

I’ve been clear that I don’t like him and I wish he would go away, but I would be delighted to see him turn the corner, I just don’t see any indication that that is likely. What do you see?

I said rebound, not “turn the corner.”   I’m not a big fan either, as you probably know.   But prior to last year he had a 4.50 career ERA, and last year he had a 4.41 FIP, so I think it’s reasonable to hope for a mid-4’s ERA instead of the 5.17 we got in 2021.

[LookinUp]

If they don't improve, I can't see Hyde staying. At some point guys need to perform. A lot of these guys have in the minors, and you can't replace the whole team, so the manager would seem to be the guy to go.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

If they don't improve, I can't see Hyde staying. At some point guys need to perform. A lot of these guys have in the minors, and you can't replace the whole team, so the manager would seem to be the guy to go.

Nah…we can just keep being patient because winning doesn’t matter.

[sportsfan8703]

The pitching staff is the glaring weakness of the 2022 team. I don’t know how much AAA seasoning we will give Grod and Hall, but adding two starters internally immediately helps the entire staff. Post Grod and Hall call ups…

Means, Grod, Hall, Lyles, ?

Sulser, Wells, Bautista, Lopez, Tate

Scott, Fry, Perez

The rotation has a trickle down effect. 

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The pitching staff is the glaring weakness of the 2022 team. I don’t know how much AAA seasoning we will give Grod and Hall, but adding two starters internally immediately helps the entire staff. Post Grod and Hall call ups…

Means, Grod, Hall, Lyles, ?

Sulser, Wells, Bautista, Lopez, Tate

Scott, Fry, Perez

The rotation has a trickle down effect. 

Everyone needs to remember that G-Rod and Hall are most likely going to be on innings limits.  Especially Hall.  No way either one of them are going 180-220 innings this year.  

[waroriole]

44 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The pitching staff is the glaring weakness of the 2022 team. I don’t know how much AAA seasoning we will give Grod and Hall, but adding two starters internally immediately helps the entire staff. Post Grod and Hall call ups…

Means, Grod, Hall, Lyles, ?

Sulser, Wells, Bautista, Lopez, Tate

Scott, Fry, Perez

The rotation has a trickle down effect. 

It’s very unlikely Hall sees Baltimore next year. He just needs to be healthy and work on control. 

[RZNJ]

I'm looking for the biggest improvement in the starting rotation.  As terrible as it was last year and a lot of guys took lumps, I think Wells and Lowther will do well enough to hold spots at the end of the rotation.   Grayson up by June, possibly.   A big unknown is the durability of Means.   There is a chance for mediocrity which would be a huge improvement.    I don't expect much offensive improvement although there is certainly the potential for some if Adley and Stowers make an impact once the season is already underway.