O’s sign Jordan Lyles

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

This just looks to be a guy that you sign three days before spring training starts for 3M.

Or a million...I can't believe Texas paid him $8 million a season for the previous 2 years.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

This just looks to be a guy that you sign three days before spring training starts for 3M.

Agreed.   But by paying him $7 mm, we can now say our payroll is higher than what the Mets are paying Scherzer.   So at least there’s that.  

[Roll Tide]

Just now, maybenxtyr said:

Or a million...I can't believe Texas paid him $8 million a season for the previous 2 years.

The more I read the more I hate it.

Spending money to make it look like you are trying even when you aren’t is the bigger sin IMO.

 

Quote

* The Athletic reported late last night that the Orioles signed former Rangers right-hander Jordan Lyles to a one-year contract worth a guaranteed $7 million and including an $11 million club option for 2023.

The deal is pending a physical that will take place after the work stoppage, which has been instituted and forced the cancellation of the Winter Meetings.

This is the largest signing by far under Elias, topping the $3 million spent on veteran shortstop José Iglesias in January 2020.

Lyles, 31, was drafted 38th overall by the Astros in 2008 and the Orioles are his seventh team. He spent the last two seasons with the Rangers after signing a $16 million free agent contract in December 2019 and went 11-19 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in 44 games (39 starts). He was 10-13 this summer with a 5.15 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in 32 games (30 starts) totaling 180 innings, and his 38 home runs led the majors.

His 103 earned runs were the most in the American League.

Overall, Lyles is 54-79 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 289 games (182 starts) with the Astros, Rockies, Padres, Brewers, Pirates and Rangers. He had two iterations with Milwaukee. He’s averaged 3.1 walks and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

The contract with the Orioles reportedly includes a $5.5 million base salary, $500,000 signing bonus and $1 million buyout. He also will receive $500,000 if traded.

 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

I have a question, how can a guy with such a big ERA “Eat innings” if he’s so bad he can’t make it out of the third inning?

Is the manager just leaving him in for six innings because spent 7 million on him, and damn the score?

By definition, terrible pitchers can’t eat innings because they are terrible.

Well, the good thing about Lyles last year was he made 15 quality starts.   So, those are games where he pitched a lot of innings and kept his team in the game.     In six of those, he actually went 7 innings.   He also had several other decent games, like 7 IP 4 ER and 5.2 IP 2 ER.  If you look at his game log, he really only got clobbered a handful of times.   Honestly, if he could have the exact same year with us as he had for Texas, I’d take it.   The issue is how much those numbers change pitching in OPACY and the AL East.   

(It’s always good to remember that we actually play less than half our games against the AL East.)
 

[DrungoHazewood]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, the good thing about Lyles last year was he made 15 quality starts.   So, those are games where he pitched a lot of innings and kept his team in the game.     In six of those, he actually went 7 innings.   He also had several other decent games, like 7 IP 4 ER and 5.2 IP 2 ER.  If you look at his game log, he really only got clobbered a handful of times.   Honestly, if he could have the exact same year with us as he had for Texas, I’d take it.   The issue is how much those numbers change pitching in OPACY and the AL East.   

(It’s always good to remember that we actually play less than half our games against the AL East.)
 

But they do play 81 at Camden Yards, and he allowed 38 homers in 180 innings somewhere else.  Maybe that's the clue to figuring out this signing: he's already tough enough to not do self-harm after allowing a homer every 4 1/2 innings, so he can survive a year in Camden Yards.

[DrungoHazewood]

"and including an $11 million club option for 2023. "

What are the odds that option is exercised?  1%?  0.1%?  It's a lottery ticket for the O's, good on them.  If they teach him an emory ball or he invents a knuckle-splitter or something and he throws 220 innings to a 2.81 they've got a deal.  If all the other things happen it's like the option doesn't even exist.

Sometimes in OOTP baseball I'll throw in a club option for $20M for some random player I'm bidding on just to see if I can fool the AI into accepting my contract offer. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

This just looks to be a guy that you sign three days before spring training starts for 3M

I guess we don’t know but this is a good point.  What’s the hurry to sign him?  Sure maybe he was about to sign somewhere else but so what?  You can’t find another similar guy to him?

[waroriole]

19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

"and including an $11 million club option for 2023. "

What are the odds that option is exercised?  1%?  0.1%?  It's a lottery ticket for the O's, good on them.  If they teach him an emory ball or he invents a knuckle-splitter or something and he throws 220 innings to a 2.81 they've got a deal.  If all the other things happen it's like the option doesn't even exist.

Sometimes in OOTP baseball I'll throw in a club option for $20M for some random player I'm bidding on just to see if I can fool the AI into accepting my contract offer. 

It does work a lot in OOTP. I like to make it a vesting option that’s unattainable. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, waroriole said:

It does work a lot in OOTP. I like to make it a vesting option that’s unattainable. 

I find it occasionally works.  Yea, I'll try like a $15M bonus for getting to 850 PAs or something like that. The simulation has gotten better about not falling for that over the years.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I be guess we don’t know but this is a good point.  What’s the hurry to sign him?  Sure maybe he was about to sign somewhere else but so what?  You can’t find another similar guy to him?

To placate the fans who constantly whine that each day without a signing means Elias is just sitting in the warehouse smoking weed, playing Minecraft.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

To placate the fans who constantly whine that each day without a signing means Elias is just sitting in the warehouse smoking weed, playing Minecraft.

Pretty sure he isn't concerned about placating fans.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But they do play 81 at Camden Yards, and he allowed 38 homers in 180 innings somewhere else.  Maybe that's the clue to figuring out this signing: he's already tough enough to not do self-harm after allowing a homer every 4 1/2 innings, so he can survive a year in Camden Yards.

We’ll see if he can top the 41 homers Bundy allowed in 2018.  One interesting fact: of his 38 homers allowed last year, 28 were solo shots and the other 10 were all with one runner on base.   So at least he limited the damage.   

His HR/9 has really varied a great deal over his career.   I expect he’ll allow a lot this year but hopefully it won’t be as bad as we fear.
 

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

We’ll see if he can top the 41 homers Bundy allowed in 2018.  One interesting fact: of his 38 homers allowed last year, 28 were solo shots and the other 10 were all with one runner on base.   So at least he limited the damage.   

His HR/9 has really varied a great deal over his career.   I expect he’ll allow a lot this year but hopefully it won’t be as bad as we fear.
 

Palmer is gonna love him. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

We’ll see if he can top the 41 homers Bundy allowed in 2018.  One interesting fact: of his 38 homers allowed last year, 28 were solo shots and the other 10 were all with one runner on base.   So at least he limited the damage.   

His HR/9 has really varied a great deal over his career.   I expect he’ll allow a lot this year but hopefully it won’t be as bad as we fear.
 

What's the typical breakdown?  The year Blyleven allowed 50 homers 27 were with the bases empty and another 18 were with just one runner on.  In '85 Scott McGregor allowed 32 of his 34 homers with one or fewer runners on base.

I think I once heard that Jim Palmer never allowed a grand slam, not sure where.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What's the typical breakdown?  The year Blyleven allowed 50 homers 27 were with the bases empty and another 18 were with just one runner on.  In '85 Scott McGregor allowed 32 of his 34 homers with one or fewer runners on base.

I think I once heard that Jim Palmer never allowed a grand slam, not sure where.

In 2021, 60% of homers were solo, 27% with one on.   Lyles in his career has allowed 55% solos, 35% with one on.   Probably just random variation from the norm.   

The O’s as a team allowed 50 homers that were either three-run shots (39) or grand slams (11), representing 19% of the homers they allowed, way over the league average (surprise surprise)