Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

That has little relevance to the strength of their system this year.   They were ranked no. 1 until Franco graduated, and are still a very good system.  

They've had one top five pick since 2009. 

I don't even want to check how many the Orioles have had since then.

[NCRaven]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They've had one top five pick since 2009. 

I don't even want to check how many the Orioles have had since then.

Corn/Frobby - Points well taken.

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I'll consider the rebuild over when our first J2 signee sticks in the MLB lineup and there are international candidates right behind him ready to take his place.  

I agree there's something to this in terms of the Orioles being able to put on the field a team reflective of all the main pipelines the world offers.   But those fat domestic bonus pools of these lean years should serve as a Latin America stand-in for the team's competitiveness before Samuel Basallo or Leandro Arias hit their mid 20's.

[Brooks The Great]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No, the idea of rebuilding is to tear down your team, free yourself of long term salary commitments and build up your organization.

The Orioles have done all of that.  There is nothing left to tear down.   The actual rebuild is done.  The components that make up a rebuild are passed them.
 

 

 

Agree to disagree.

[spiritof66]

On 12/9/2021 at 1:35 PM, Can_of_corn said:

He hasn't even come close to proving he can win using the one trick he learned at his last job. 

He's not in danger of being poached by a big market club.

I think Elias started down this road believing, or acting as if he believed, that he could replicate in Baltimore what happened in Houston. I think there are some serious differences between the two situations, including the following, that make the total/drastic rebuild strategy a lot harder to implement in Baltimore:

1. Houston had in place a pipeline supplying productive talent from Latin America that the Orioles lacked upon Elias's arrival. In the best case, the Orioles will start to get some major league talent from its international signings and player development a couple of years from now.

2. The Astros' owners were willing and able to sign free agents, some of them pretty costly, to build out the team and move it from pretty good to contending. I doubt the Orioles' ownership, given their limited resources, their recent parsimony, and the precarious nature of the Angelos family's ownership, will spend in that way. At the very best, it's uncertain.

3. The years of bad baseball have severely damaged the Orioles' fan base, and will continue to do. The Astros suffered attendance losses during their tear-down phase, but had a much easier time attracting new fans and bringing back old ones when they got good. Houston is the fifth to seventh largest metro area in the country (and the second or third largest with just one MLB team). Texas had the third fastest population growth rate from 2010 to 2020. Houston, as a de facto regional capital and center of the energy industry, has a constant influx of people, many of them high earners, with a desire to connect to the city, as well as large consulting, management and law firms to buy season ticket. The competition for sports entertainment comes from football and basketball more than from other MLB teams (pretty much just he Rangers) since Houston is the closest ML city for millions and millions of fans in the southwest. When the Orioles' ineptness -- and the team's satisfaction with that ineptness lasting for years -- drives away fans, whether it's to the nearby Nats or Phillies, or other teams or entertainment, it's not at all clear how many will return, or how quickly where new fans will come from. 

4. The strength of the Orioles' divisional rivals makes improving and contending more difficult for them, 

Elias has shown himself capable at the "tear it down" phase of rebuilding. Not especially imaginative or resourceful, but competent. The "build it up" phase is much more challenging,  especially in this market. In the past couple of years, that phase -- the hard part -- seems to have receded about half a season for each season that goes by. Elias tells us to be patient. Did anyone have to say that to Astros fans? I have hope -- there's always hope -- that Elias' strategy will succeed, but he's given me no reason to be confident that he can do so.

[OriolesMagic83]

Imo, the rebuild is over when the O's have the talent in the system, majors and minors, to compete for the playoffs.  The O's have made a lot of progress in the position player area, but are far from the talent required in the pitching area.  I can't really see starting pitching talent outside of Means, G Rod, and Hall.  Could one of the young starters, such as Akin and Lowther figure things out?  Of course, but there is nowhere near the pitching pipeline to sustain a MLB contender. 

I would hope the team is at least approaching .500 in 2023, or the rebuild has to be in question, along with Elias job security.

In reference to MLBTR guy saying the O's payroll could go to $250 mill.  If the happens, then Elon Musk has sold his Tesla stock and realized his secret dream of owning the O's. 

 

[connja]

On 12/9/2021 at 10:16 AM, Porky said:

Answering your question with a question --- let's take a look at other rebuilds of late and maybe explore the fuzziness of what can be called a rebuild:

The Cincinnati Reds: They embarked on a rebuild in 2015 when they traded away many of their players after a strong run from 2010-2013. They finished the year with 64 wins and would post losing seasons again in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as they rebuilt - resulting in six straight losing seasons in a row.

In 2019 and 2020, they made moves to add Bauer, Castellanos, Moustakas, and others in an effort to become contenders. They finished 31-29 in 2020 to finally make the playoffs, but lost to the Braves in the wildcard round. They finished 83-79 in 2021 and missed the playoffs. Now, ownership has said they will likely need to scale back payroll to be more realistic with the market after a few years of over-expenditure.

So, is their rebuild over? A one-and-done playoff appearance and two slight winning seasons later? Or does the past eight years just represent the first wave in a much longer rebuild? Or... is it just a failed rebuild?

The Philadelphia Phillies: After a really good run from 2001-2011, the Phillies held onto their aging core longer than most. They finished 81-81 in 2012 and didn't get back to a "winning" season till 2021 with a 82-80 record. They have yet to make the playoffs. For their "rebuild," Andy McPhail was hired in 2015 - so I'd say their rebuild started around then. The signed Harper and others in 2019.

So, in their rebuild over? They finally had a winning season after nine seasons without one. But, no playoff appearances. They finished two games above .500 this year. And their farm system is relatively bare after win-now trades.

The San Francisco Giants: Everyone knows about the Giants' success since 2010, but 2017-2020 resulted in four straight losing seasons for the club with a rebuild obviously needed with lots of aging players on the books. Farhan Zaidi was hired in November 2018 and the team soon saw the departures of Bumgarner, Samardzija, and others. In 2021, the Giants surprised everyone and won 107 games thanks to amazing performances from their older players - particularly 6.1 WAR from a 34 year old Brandon Crawford and 3.5 WAR from a 34 year old Buster Posey.

After a great year - Posey had retired, their top pitcher in Kevin Gausman has left, and their team is overwhelming comprised of players well over the age of 30.

So, is their rebuild over? They just had the best record in baseball. But, with such an old team, is the "rebuild" over?

 

 

 

Elias isn't using any of these teams as the model.  The model is the Rays, with continuous focus on adding young talent int he minors to bolster the big league team.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, connja said:

Elias isn't using any of these teams as the model.  The model is the Rays, with continuous focus on adding young talent int he minors to bolster the big league team.

We won’t know what the model is until the team is good.   That’s when you have really tough decisions about extending players or holding onto them until they’re free agents, vs. trading for younger guys.   

[Aristotelian]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We won’t know what the model is until the team is good.   That’s when you have really tough decisions about extending players or holding onto them until they’re free agents, vs. trading for younger guys.   

Elias has specifically said the Orioles are using a similar strategy to the Rays. 

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Elias has specifically said the Orioles are using a similar strategy to the Rays. 

Similar doesn’t mean identical.  When the O’s are contenders and trade away a star player who’s two years from free agency for prospects, I’ll believe we’re following Tampa’s model.   Until then, it’s just talk.  

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Similar doesn’t mean identical.  When the O’s are contenders and trade away a star player who’s two years from free agency for prospects, I’ll believe we’re following Tampa’s model.   Until then, it’s just talk.  

Yep…Elias’s comments about the Rays model have been very misrepresented.

[NCRaven]

On 12/11/2021 at 3:17 PM, spiritof66 said:Did anyone have to say that to Astros fans? 

I have no doubt that Jeff Luhnow had to ask Houston fans for patience.

[Aristotelian]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Similar doesn’t mean identical.  When the O’s are contenders and trade away a star player who’s two years from free agency for prospects, I’ll believe we’re following Tampa’s model.   Until then, it’s just talk.  

I think it is fair to say the Tampa model is more relevant than SF, Philly, and Cincinnati. 

[Porky]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep…Elias’s comments about the Rays model have been very misrepresented.

Couldn't agree more. A "rebuild model" isn't a set of instructions. Every rebuild will be unique.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think it is fair to say the Tampa model is more relevant than SF, Philly, and Cincinnati. 

Think Pittsburgh.