(Fangraphs) "Fluke or Breakout: Is Cedric Mullins’ 2021 Success Sustainable?"

[BohKnowsBmore]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fluke-or-breakout-is-cedric-mullins-2021-success-sustainable/

Quote

 

There might not have been a bigger surprise performer in 2021 than Cedric Mullins. With just over 400 plate appearances spread across parts of three years prior, he had put up a cumulative 72 wRC+ and accumulated -0.4 WAR; this season, he pushed his wRC+ up to 136 and posted 5.3 WAR, the 14th highest mark among all position players. He also became just the 11th player to reach 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in a single season over the last decade.

The catalyst for his breakout season was quite simple: Mullins quit switch-hitting and began batting exclusively from the left side. That discussion had begun all the way back in 2018, his debut season, when then-Orioles manager Buck Showalter suggested it to him. After struggling to establish himself in the majors for three seasons, he finally decided to rely on his natural swing during the offseason. “It was getting difficult to try and create two different swings,” he told MASN’s Steve Melewski in March. “I know my left-side is my natural side, so trying to develop my right-handed swing at the highest level was challenging.”

 

Nothing that will come as much of a shock to this crowd, but still thought it was an interesting article, worth sharing.

 

[wildcard]

The stance change is interesting to see.

[LA2]

Informative to see all the "under the hood" stats lined up according to RHB, LHB pre-2021, and LHB 2021. The ZIPS percentile-indexed projections are reassuring.

[HowAboutThat]

Yes.

Sometimes inexplicable improvement turned out to be unsustainable, but this improvement is completely logical.

Cedric just decided to illuminate half of his work regimen. Instead of 50% on each of two mirror images, he was able to devote 100% to one. For me the exciting question is can he improve

[sportsfan8703]

Giving up SH is a tangible thing to point to that really helped him. I think it was a breakout and not a fluke. Even if he’s more of a 20/20 guy than 30/30. 

[Sports Guy]

Let the Marlins figure that out.

[MarCakes21]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let the Marlins figure that out.

Do you want them to trade for him like he's a 5.3WAR, 30/30 guy, or a 3.5WAR, 20/20 guy?  I think if they give us back his last years value, you would take it, but maybe not his 50th percentile ZIPS.

[Tony-OH]

23 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fluke-or-breakout-is-cedric-mullins-2021-success-sustainable/

Nothing that will come as much of a shock to this crowd, but still thought it was an interesting article, worth sharing.

 

Really excellent article that put into words what I was seeing in the numbers that make me think it is sustainable. I do think he will come down a bit since his expected stats were a bit lower than his actual stats for AVG, SLG, and wOBA, but I don't think they come crashing down. A bet he ends up in between his 60% and 70% ZIP projections.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Really excellent article that put into words what I was seeing in the numbers that make me think it is sustainable. I do think he will come down a bit since his expected stats were a bit lower than his actual stats for AVG, SLG, and wOBA, but I don't think they come crashing down. A bet he ends up in between his 60% and 70% ZIP projections.

I am not sure of this, but I don’t think the Statcast “expected” numbers are park adjusted.   Therefore, players who play in hitter’s parks tend to outperform xwOBA, etc by a bit.   In other words, expect the same thing next year in terms of comparing xwOBA to wOBA, at least to a degree.  

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I am not sure of this, but I don’t think the Statcast “expected” numbers are park adjusted.   Therefore, players who play in hitter’s parks tend to outperform xwOBA, etc by a bit.   In other words, expect the same thing next year in terms of comparing xwOBA to wOBA, at least to a degree.  

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2

Camden Yards ran hot in 2021 but that may have been because the visiting team got to hit against the Orioles AAA pitchers they were throwing out there on a nightly basis.

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Really excellent article that put into words what I was seeing in the numbers that make me think it is sustainable. I do think he will come down a bit since his expected stats were a bit lower than his actual stats for AVG, SLG, and wOBA, but I don't think they come crashing down. A bet he ends up in between his 60% and 70% ZIP projections.

Yea, I would think something around this is correct.  I could see anything from a 790-830 OPS.

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2

Camden Yards ran hot in 2021 but that may have been because the visiting team got to hit against the Orioles AAA pitchers they were throwing out there on a nightly basis.

Well, the Orioles’ offense had a .760 OPS at home and .652 on the road, so I’d say it was more than just the bad Orioles pitchers.   

[MDtransplant757]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, the Orioles’ offense had a .760 OPS at home and .652 on the road, so I’d say it was more than just the bad Orioles pitchers.   

I would love to see a monthly breakdown of ballpark factors for Camden Yards. On average back in the day it was neutral or barely pitcher friendly.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

I would love to see a monthly breakdown of ballpark factors for Camden Yards. On average back in the day it was neutral or barely pitcher friendly.

What day was that?   From opening through 1995, it was hitter friendly.   From 1995-2006, pitcher friendly.  From 2007 to now, almost always hitter friendly except for 2010 (neutral) and 2017 (marginally pitcher friendly).  
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/attend.shtml

[Sports Guy]

It’s always been a good homer park…IIRC, what it lacked was the doubles and triples.