ProspectsLive Top 30

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

…he will have gotten extremely lucky.

Mookie Betts was a fifth round pick so it is possible.

[jamalshw]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

…he will have gotten extremely lucky.

To get anyone to hit later in the draft obviously requires a bit of luck though that can be said of first rounders to an extent as well. There's an element of luck and an element of skill in identifying the right player(s) to target. Like everything in life, it's a risk-reward ratio and he did a good job identifying skills at 5 (and using saved money to secure said skills). Did he know it would work out? Of course not. Could Mayo still fail? Absolutely. But even with injuries to Baulmer and Kjerstad, the lambasted 2020 draft is starting to look like Elias' strategy was at least a viable one whereas I was pretty set against it when it happened. 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

To get anyone to hit later in the draft obviously requires a bit of luck though that can be said of first rounders to an extent as well. There's an element of luck and an element of skill in identifying the right player(s) to target. Like everything in life, it's a risk-reward ratio and he did a good job identifying skills at 5 (and using saved money to secure said skills). Did he know it would work out? Of course not. Could Mayo still fail? Absolutely. But even with injuries to Baulmer and Kjerstad, the lambasted 2020 draft is starting to look like Elias' strategy was at least a viable one whereas I was pretty set against it when it happened. 

Obviously it requires some luck but let’s face it, if Elias knew he was going to be this good, he wouldn’t have waited that late to draft him.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously it requires some luck but let’s face it, if Elias knew he was going to be this good, he wouldn’t have waited that late to draft him.

Sure, you don't risk him dropping to the fifth round, you snag him in the second and give him slot.

[RZNJ]

I think someone almost as smart as me said "luck is the residue of design".   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I think someone almost as smart as me said "luck is the residue of design".   

Was it your slow Uncle Nick quoting John Milton?

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was it your slow Uncle Nick quoting John Milton?

If I had an uncle Nick I would be outraged at the insinuation. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If I had an uncle Nick I would be outraged at the insinuation. 

Would he be an Anglophobe? 

[LookinUp]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think someone almost as smart as me said "luck is the residue of design".   

Exactly the point. The O's identified a guy to target with over slot and may have hit big. They will certainly not hit on all of them, but it shouldn't be discounted purely as luck either.

Not that SG's saying that. Sure there's some luck, particularly if he turns out the top offensive prospect in baseball. I think he has a long way to go before that's the case either way, but it does say something about the organizations ability to target people and develop them as well. 

I'm really high on Crede Willems for essentially the same reasons. I think they targeted a power profile that can be molded into a badass hitter.

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously it requires some luck but let’s face it, if Elias knew he was going to be this good, he wouldn’t have waited that late to draft him.

Honestly, Mayo may be one of those COVID related good news stories for the Orioles. Mayo was hurt by basically missing his senior year but for a few games. With questions about his defense at 3B and his desire for at least second round money, most teams were thinking he was too big a risk.

Who knows where he would have gone in the draft if he had a huge senior year? With the talent I've seen, it's clear first round talent so the question was, did the Orioles make out because of his missed senior year?

Most likely yes. So yes, there's a little luck in the situation that allowed Mayo to be available in the 5th round, but it was Elias' use of player pool money that allowed him to be targeted and signed. That's good work by a scouting staff that could not physically see or talk to a player after early March.

So there's some luck, but also this would be a huge scouting win if Mayo can fulfill his potential.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Honestly, Mayo may be one of those COVID related good news stories for the Orioles. Mayo was hurt by basically missing his senior year but for a few games. With questions about his defense at 3B and his desire for at least second round money, most teams were thinking he was too big a risk.

Who knows where he would have gone in the draft if he had a huge senior year? With the talent I've seen, it's clear first round talent so the question was, did the Orioles make out because of his missed senior year?

Most likely yes. So yes, there's a little luck in the situation that allowed Mayo to be available in the 5th round, but it was Elias' use of player pool money that allowed him to be targeted and signed. That's good work by a scouting staff that could not physically see or talk to a player after early March.

So there's some luck, but also this would be a huge scouting win if Mayo can fulfill his potential.

Sure..but it would have been a scouting win if you take him when you took Servideo too..and the cost may not have been different.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure..but it would have been a scouting win if you take him when you took Servideo too..and the cost may not have been different.

I'm not sure what your point is here honestly. Mayo was never a 5th round talent even before missing his senior year due to COVID. Hence it took $1.75 million to forego his commitment to Florida. He ended up with early 2nd round money and I'm betting if he had his senior year, he would have ended up a 1st rounder in a full draft.

So again, while there is some luck that he lost his senior year which led to some concerns from some teams, it's good scouting the Orioles knew what it would take to sign him and that no one else had the money left to sign him after a certain point so they could wait.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure what your point is here honestly. Mayo was never a 5th round talent even before missing his senior year due to COVID. Hence it took $1.75 million to forego his commitment to Florida. He ended up with early 2nd round money and I'm betting if he had his senior year, he would have ended up a 1st rounder in a full draft.

So again, while there is some luck that he lost his senior year which led to some concerns from some teams, it's good scouting the Orioles knew what it would take to sign him and that no one else had the money left to sign him after a certain point so they could wait.

I guess the question is, if you like a guy so much that you’re willing to pay him $1.75 mm, why do you wait until the 5th round and risk somebody else taking him?

[jabba72]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess the question is, if you like a guy so much that you’re willing to pay him $1.75 mm, why do you wait until the 5th round and risk somebody else taking him?

Obviously they didnt know Mayo had this kind of upside at the time, neither did anyone else though. He flew completely under the radar in that draft. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Obviously they didnt know Mayo had this kind of upside at the time, neither did anyone else though. He flew completely under the radar in that draft. 

Well, lots of guys have upside.   Whether they have a realistic chance to achieve that upside is another story.    Mayo’s performance last year suggests he has a better chance than many others, including many players drafted ahead of him.