Norby, Vavra and Prieto

[LookinUp]

30 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 

That's fair.  Just going off what I've seen.  Who has the first crack at the MLB of these?  Vavra?

It would seem, just based on where they're expected to start, that Norby is last in line. Vavra, if healthy, probably first is my guess.

[Aristotelian]

Unfortunately the fact that Vavra has had some injury issues in part of the body that can become chronic I think has to hurt his stock. That said his 14% walk rate in AA is very exciting. Norby had a 13% walk rate in A. I'd have to rank him slightly ahead just due to health. 

Hard to know what to make of Prieto but the publications seem to like him and he certainly has the look of a ballplayer in the videos. All of them seem like legit prospects but none are sure things to be successful.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’re fighting a losing battle here.   The top four players in that group by rWAR) all debuted in 2019 or later.   I don’t have time to look at every one of these 16 guys and see if they ever had injuries.

 

I’m fighting a losing battle? Lol

2016 was a pretty poor draft overall and most of the college players have done nothing, which kind of proves my point.

Will Smith is really good and didn’t debut until 2019 but he also didn’t play more than 73 games in 2016 or 2017 and only played 98 in 2018.  Injuries seemed to be an issue for him.

Kyle Lewis also had injury issues in the minors. 
 
Im not seeing where I’m wrong if you are using that draft??

I stand by what I’m saying…if an advanced college player (especially hitter) takes more than 2 MiL seasons to be ready, I think he won’t be good or he has had injury issues.  There are obviously going to be exceptions but I’m guessing the numbers favor that thought.

He gets a full season this year and absolutely should be in Bowie this year and performing reasonably well.  If he does that, he sets himself up for the majors in late 2023.  If he gets to the upper levels and he struggles, I think it’s time to think he won’t be as good as we hope.  Could be an exception but most likely he won’t be.

 

 

[btdart20]

In general, good hitters will be promoted faster (competitive window not withstanding).  

Anecdotally, Wieters was drafted in 2007.  Got in a few MiLB games in 2007 as well.  MLB debut in 2009.  Sounds like we're counting that as 3 years.  His MiLB performance was legendary.  Not sure what side of the debate this supports... 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

In general, good hitters will be promoted faster (competitive window not withstanding).  

Anecdotally, Wieters was drafted in 2007.  Got in a few MiLB games in 2007 as well.  MLB debut in 2009.  Sounds like we're counting that as 3 years.  His MiLB performance was legendary.  Not sure what side of the debate this supports... 

His 2007 at bats were in winter league.

I don't think that counts as MiLB.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m fighting a losing battle? Lol

2016 was a pretty poor draft overall and most of the college players have done nothing, which kind of proves my point.

Will Smith is really good and didn’t debut until 2019 but he also didn’t play more than 73 games in 2016 or 2017 and only played 98 in 2018.  Injuries seemed to be an issue for him.

Kyle Lewis also had injury issues in the minors. 
 
Im not seeing where I’m wrong if you are using that draft??

I stand by what I’m saying…if an advanced college player (especially hitter) takes more than 2 MiL seasons to be ready, I think he won’t be good or he has had injury issues.  There are obviously going to be exceptions but I’m guessing the numbers favor that thought.

 

I love it when you just can’t admit that you’re wrong.   Of the top 28 college players who debuted in 2019 (by rWAR to date), ALL of them were drafted in 2016 or earlier.   

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I love it when you just can’t admit that you’re wrong.   Of the top 28 college players who debuted in 2019 (by rWAR to date), ALL of them were drafted in 2016 or earlier.   

What are you comparing it too? Having the highest WAR against a bunch of failures isn’t exactly a feather in one’s cap. What were the reasons they were held back?  Show me the players and the actual data.  Were they thought of as advanced hitters coming out of the draft?  What type of players are they?  Are they just role players?  Are they starters?  
 

i never once said you can’t make the majors or contribute.  I’m saying if he’s going to be an everyday, solid MLer.
 

You mentioned the first round..I talked about the first rounders and why they took a while to get up..which is exactly what I said…injuries.  

I stand by my statement and I’m sure there were 100s of college players drafted in that draft that didn’t amount to anything, which goes back to part of my point.

Norby is unlikely to be a good/everyday player if he’s not ready to be here late 2023.

 

 

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What are you comparing it too? Having the highest WAR against a bunch of failures isn’t exactly a feather in one’s cap. What were the reasons they were held back?  Show me the players and the actual data.  Were they thought of as advanced hitters coming out of the draft?  What type of players are they?  Are they just role players?  Are they starters?  

You can find them here:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2019-debuts.shtml

 

[waroriole]

I’d rank Norby highest just because of upside. Vavra gets on base but his lack of power will limit him. Prieto seems to have a good hit tool but also no power and no patience. 

[Paul in Virginia]

Watching Orioles infield prospect and 2021 draft pick Connor Norby take BP, I see someone who is already at that second level of swing despite just barely beginning his pro career. Striding into the cage confidently among a group of mashers at a recent camp, it was the slighter Norby who wielded the bat like a club and moved it with laser precision...

 

Baltimore Orioles: Connor Norby's Swing Shows Serious Potential (eutawstreetreport.com)

Edited February 21, 2022 by Paul in Virginia

[Ruzious]

16 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

Watching Orioles infield prospect and 2021 draft pick Connor Norby take BP, I see someone who is already at that second level of swing despite just barely beginning his pro career. Striding into the cage confidently among a group of mashers at a recent camp, it was the slighter Norby who wielded the bat like a club and moved it with laser precision...

 

Baltimore Orioles: Connor Norby's Swing Shows Serious Potential (eutawstreetreport.com)

And for a guy known mostly for his hitting, gotta like that sidearm throw he smoothly makes all the way from the SS hole with perfect accuracy and nice arm strength for a sidearm throw.