Keith Law's Orioles' top 20 for 2022

[connja]

I thought his intro to the section was telling.  I've been thinking our system depth has improved significantly....

 

Quote

The Orioles have the most top-heavy system in the American League, with six guys on the Top 100 or just-missed list, plus two more who were reasonably close. But the system thins out quickly after that, with a lot of future relievers and extra bats, plus a huge group of prospects who had disappointing 2021 seasons due to injury or poor performance.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, connja said:

I thought his intro to the section was telling.  I've been thinking our system depth has improved significantly....

 

 

I'd rather have elites over depth guys.

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather have elites over depth guys.

And that’s where I have an issue with what Law is saying.

Now, we can debate on how elite guys are after the top 2 but give me the elite guys over several Kyle Bradish type guys any day of the week.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather have elites over depth guys.

Sure.   And I would not call our system shallow by any means.   Fangraphs assigns valuations to every player rated at 35+ or higher.   So far, of the 13 systems they’ve evaluated, only 3 have more than our 45 prospects at that level or better.   Our depth isn’t elite, but it’s quite decent IMO.   The fact that our international program has really only gotten going the last couple of years Is the main reason our depth isn’t better.  

[waroriole]

I think these rankings just go to show that I’ll trust Tony and a handful of OH poster’s opinions over almost all of the experts. 

[wildcard]

It should be interesting.   Gunnar, Westburg and Ortiz should all start the season at AA.  They all would like to be SS.   

Mateo will battle Urias for the starting SS for the O's.   Mateo in a natural SS with a 60 arm and very good range.   But in the minors he was a 20+ error guy over a full season.   Urias  plays both SS/2B but is better defensive at 2B.   

So Law say Ortiz could be the starting SS with the O's by Labor day.  With Mateo history of errors that might be true.  But with that logic so could Westburg.   Both are probably not as error prone as Mateo.   But I am not sure either has Mateo range.

It should be interesting.

[Sports Guy]

Mateo is very unlikely to be good no matter how much you want to believe in him.

[Tony-OH]

It's always interesting to get another take. Weight it as you wish, but there are certainly some head scratchers in the rankings but if the write ups match up, then the rankings are just how he personally would put them. 

Not everyone takes the approach I take which is if I can only have one guy in my system, who would I want when ranking guys over one another. 

As for Ortiz, that's pretty aggressive for a guy who missed as much time as he did and who didn't exactly tear it up overall offensively. Law is known to have his favorite guys so it looks like Ortiz is his new Adam Hall. Let's hope this one works out better.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's always interesting to get another take. Weight it as you wish, but there are certainly some head scratchers in the rankings but if the write ups match up, then the rankings are just how he personally would put them. 

Not everyone takes the approach I take which is if I can only have one gut in my system, who would I want when ranking guys over one another. 

As for Ortiz, that's pretty aggressive for a guy who missed as much time as he did and who didn't exactly tear it up overall offensively. Law is known to have his favorite guys so it looks like Ortiz is his new Adam Hall. Let's hope this one works out better.

But Law thinks the way you do of Bradish and Baumann being relievers.

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But Law thinks the way you do of Bradish and Baumann being relievers.

He thinks Baumann is a reliever but he's #12? He doesn't think very highly of the system then unless he thinks he's late inning reliever and that's not the stuff I saw last year.

Like I said, everyone is allowed an opinion. I kinda like when a guy goes against the grain with a placement. Heck, I'm the only one that put Mayo as high as I did so sometimes you gotta go with your gut. Law is going heavy on his gut feel about Ortiz. That's not to say Ortiz doesn't have talent, and I've said that Ortiz does have a upside as an everyday guy, but we need to see more on the field.

[RZNJ]

So Baumann has an ok fastball and no secondaries and is #12.  Yet Jean Pinto who has an ok fastball and good secondaries is not in the top 20?  I'd love to hear the rationale behind that.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

So Baumann has an ok fastball and no secondaries and is #12.  Yet Jean Pinto who has an ok fastball and good secondaries is not in the top 20?  I'd love to hear the rationale behind that.  

That is an easy one.  Baumann has a 95 mph fastball and a plus slider.  He has been developed as a starter all the way through AAA.  He still needs more time at AAA but he is close. He did have a 2.00 ERA at AAA in Sept after coming back from injuries.  He has earned his way up the ladder.  

Pinto is 21 and has played 17 games as a professional.  He's 5'11" and 175 lbs.    Most ranker are not willing to stick their neck out on him  until they see more.  Tony is exception because he grades on potential not long term achievement.   Not saying Tony is wrong its just not the main stream.

[Sports Guy]

Lol.  Imagine still riding that “2.00 ERA” train when you have been told over and over again how meaningless it is.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol.  Imagine still riding that “2.00 ERA” train when you have been told over and over again how meaningless it is.

 

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is an easy one.  Baumann has a 95 mph fastball and a plus slider.  He has been developed as a starter all the way through AAA.  He still needs more time at AAA but he is close. He did have a 2.00 ERA at AAA in Sept after coming back from injuries.  He has earned his way up the ladder.  

Pinto is 21 and has played 17 games as a professional.  He's 5'11" and 175 lbs.    Most ranker are not willing to stick their neck out on him  until they see more.  Tony is exception because he grades on potential not long term achievement.   Not saying Tony is wrong its just not the main stream.

 

[wildcard]

Baumann was 6-2  with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 Whip in 2019.  He didn't pitch in games in 2020 just like all minor leaguers.

In 2021 he worked his way back from injury in the first half and  in the July and August   had a 1.84 ERA  and a 0.93 WHIP  in 9 starts at at AA and AAA.

You may not like it but when healthy his result were good  in the minors last season.   He was probably tired in Sept with the O's.   He actually had a good game vs KC but after that he was done.

Let's see how he does in ST and to start the season before passing judgment on him.