What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Kyle Stowers?

[Frobby]

Kyle Stowers won’t be on the OD roster, but he seems quite likely to get a call-up during the year.   Last year he played well at three levels: .900 OPS in 161 PA for Aberdeen, .938 OPS in 276 PA in Bowie, .773 OPS in 93 PA in Norfolk.   He posted high K rates at all levels, though the rate didn’t change much as he advanced.  He figures to be a much better defender than DJ Stewart, and a much better hitter than Ryan McKenna, so he definitely could replace either on the roster at some point, or get called up if someone has an injury.   What’s your prediction of the OPS he’ll put up in the majors in 2022?

[btdart20]

I love how stable his stats were through the various levels last year!  I'm a little worried about his K%.  Hoping for a Rhys Hoskins/Kyle Schwarber type player.  Lefty bats in OPACY are fun!

.770-.799

[Aristotelian]

Could also replace Santander if the Orioles find a buyer. I went with .740-.769. 

[wildcard]

I think Stowers will be as good as Mancini was in 2017.    I expect to see him in the majors in June.

[Moose Milligan]

.740-.769.

He strikes out his fair share for sure, but who doesn't these days?  There's been a good separation between his batting average and on base percentage which, IMO is more important.  

 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Stowers will be as good as Mancini was in 2017.    I expect to see him in the majors in June.

This post prompted me to look at Mancini’s K rate in the minors.   Here he is compared to Stowers at the three levels:

Hi A: 15.2% vs. 34.2%
AA: 17.5% vs. 30.4%
AAA: 22.5% vs. 34.4%

Stowers managed to keep his batting average in the .272-.283 range at the three levels despite his strikeout numbers, but I really doubt he’ll hit above .250 in the majors if he doesn’t figure out a way to cut down his K rate.  To ask him to match Mancini, who finished 3rd in the ROY voting, is a pretty tall order.   

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

.740-.769.

He strikes out his fair share for sure, but who doesn't these days?  There's been a good separation between his batting average and on base percentage which, IMO is more important.  

 

Depends how low the batting average is.   

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Depends how low the batting average is.   

Depends on how HIGH the batting average is, Froberto Duran.  Glass half full, k?

[Jagwar]

Depends on whether DJ Stewart is on the roster or not. 

I think Stowers gets 300 plate appearances, and hits 15 HR. And my wild arse projection is that one of them hits the Warehouse. 

[RZNJ]

I went over .800 because frankly I have no idea. He made adjustments from when he debuted in Aberdeen and became a different hitter. Is he capable of making further adjustments to maintain the power and still make more contact?   Can he be a star with a 30% K rate?  

 

He, reportedly, is at least an average defender, will take a walk, and has huge power.    He could bust but I'll take the over.  He made huge strides last year.  Hopefully, that isn't his peak.

[jabba72]

.800 OPS. I think his power will play up at Camden Yards. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 2/22/2022 at 4:38 PM, Moose Milligan said:

.740-.769.

He strikes out his fair share for sure, but who doesn't these days?  There's been a good separation between his batting average and on base percentage which, IMO is more important.  

 

I agree. I don’t think he sees Baltimore though until Mancini and Santander are traded. 

[TINSTAAPP]

Is not applicable an option? I don't see Stowers being anything more than a September callup with the way this team is overloaded in the outfield. 

[waroriole]

27 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Is not applicable an option? I don't see Stowers being anything more than a September callup with the way this team is overloaded in the outfield. 

Mullins, Hays, and sometimes Santander. Who am I forgetting?

[LookinUp]

All of the talk re: top prospects lists has been about the delta between Tony and the rest of folks on Mayo.

Well, there's also a huge delta on Stowers. Likely bigger than that on Mayo. Tony's a big fan. Makes this a fun guy to follow.

Shot in the dark, I say .740-.769.