Correa (Update, signs with Twins)

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

That just guarantees the player more dollars up front. Team is still taking all the risk, they just pay for it earlier. If you make early payments on the mortgage it doesn't reduce the cost of your house 

 

True.  The risk is realized up front but it's not an ongoing concern when other payrolls escalate.  To continue the analogy, there is a difference in interest paid (both on the mortgage and field).  

[LookinUp]

Unclear if all of these reports are referring back to the one guy actually saying this or not. Seems like they are.

[Mooreisbetter27]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Unclear if all of these reports are referring back to the one guy actually saying this or not. Seems like they are.

Eutaw Street Report writer said he asked a few of his inside guys and got the same information. 
 

Prob right about Rosenthal though. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

14 minutes ago, oriole said:

Bold and stupid can be synonymous with each other. Something I should remind myself as I sit around checking MLBTR every few hours for a signing that I know won’t happen.

I also remember another "bold" move that the Orioles NEEDED to make according to plenty of folks here who were very vocal in their displeasure when it didn't come to pass:

Josh Hamilton's catastrophic 5 year, $125 million deal with the Angels.

[oriolediehard]

47 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

One could argue that Chris Davis, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Alex Cobb were also "bold" moves.

I agree, but we got to try or always be a last place team. We need a real leader. Chris Davis / Ubaldo they were not leaders, only self serving. Elias had Corea when he was in Houston.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

19 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

I agree, but we got to try or always be a last place team.

Between 2012 and 2017, the Orioles won the most games in the AL, and they did so without any $300 million dollar free agents and with a much thinner talent pipeline.

20 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

We need a real leader.

Is Correa known as a "leader?" What is the going rate for a "leader?" Could Cedric Mullins or Adley Rutschman or Ryan Mountcastle be a "leader" for a fraction of what Correa will cost, both in terms of dollars and risk?

22 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Chris Davis / Ubaldo they were not leaders, only self serving.

They probably weren't leaders, but they definitely were disastrous free agent contracts, but many Orioles fans felt they were good moves at the time and were very happy with them until the games actually started. I still remember that some guy who posted frequently in the MASN comment sections had "Ubaldomore" shirts printed up to sell when he signed here, I wonder if he was able to break even on that endeavor...

[jabba72]

34 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I also remember another "bold" move that the Orioles NEEDED to make according to plenty of folks here who were very vocal in their displeasure when it didn't come to pass:

Josh Hamilton's catastrophic 5 year, $125 million deal with the Angels.

Not all fans want Correa. I certainly dont for ten years. Which is what it will take for the Orioles to sign him. How did free agency get to a point where a guy now expects to be signed ten years, anyway. 

[Moose Milligan]

53 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

I agree, but we got to try or always be a last place team. We need a real leader. Chris Davis / Ubaldo they were not leaders, only self serving. Elias had Corea when he was in Houston.  

What's the definition of a leader on a baseball team?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

35 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

How did free agency get to a point where a guy now expects to be signed ten years, anyway. 

I blame history's greatest monster, Scott Boras.

[jamalshw]

I really like the fit of Correa. Yes, it's a huge risk and yes, 10-year deals rarely work, but Correa is only 3 years older than Adley and the timeline works for him with the young guys coming up (or about to come up) and while he won't be worth the AAV of the contract in the final years as a 35-36 year old, I don't forsee this going as badly as the Davis deal. It also clears SS to allow Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Vavra, Norby, Mayo etc. to fill in the 2B, 3B and utility holes (most of them figure to be in one of those spots anyway), gives us some trade bait to find top-end starters and jumps us to the stage where the rebuild starts to show at the Major League level, not just in the minors. 

This is a year where everything is supposed to start coming together and it would be great if there was a proven centerpiece to that so it's not all on Rutschman to be the face and the savior. This would also then give the Orioles a strong up the middle (Mullins, Correa, Adley) to market to pitchers (to add via Free Agency as well as trade).

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, geschinger said:

Do you have any insight to the logic employed by teams that are anti opt out?  With analytics as wide spread as they are now, teams have to know most of the value in a 10 year deal comes in the first half of the contract.  I think most GMs would prefer to sign a FA for 4 years instead of 10 if the market enabled them to so I don't understand opposition to an opt out.

It’s pretty simple.  If the player is exceeding expectations at the time of the opt out, you don’t get the future upside.   If the player falls below expectations, you’re stuck with him.   

Now, I don’t mind opt-outs, but I’m not much in favor of front-loading a deal and then giving an opt-out.   That merely  skews the risk-reward further in favor of the player.   

Here’s a pretty good Fangraphs piece analyzing the value of an opt-out.   
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

I really like the fit of Correa. Yes, it's a huge risk and yes, 10-year deals rarely work, but Correa is only 3 years older than Adley and the timeline works for him with the young guys coming up (or about to come up) and while he won't be worth the AAV of the contract in the final years as a 35-36 year old, I don't forsee this going as badly as the Davis deal. It also clears SS to allow Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Vavra, Norby, Mayo etc. to fill in the 2B, 3B and utility holes (most of them figure to be in one of those spots anyway), gives us some trade bait to find top-end starters and jumps us to the stage where the rebuild starts to show at the Major League level, not just in the minors. 

This is a year where everything is supposed to start coming together and it would be great if there was a proven centerpiece to that so it's not all on Rutschman to be the face and the savior. This would also then give the Orioles a strong up the middle (Mullins, Correa, Adley) to market to pitchers (to add via Free Agency as well as trade).

Agreed 110% but my guess until Peter passes, we are “rebuilding” just watch 

[crowmst3k!]

3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

How did free agency get to a point where a guy now expects to be signed ten years, anyway. 

Supply, demand. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by crowmst3k!

[crowmst3k!]

The potential contract for Correa makes me wish the Orioles extended Manny Machado at market rate earlier in his career.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, crowmst3k! said:

The potential contract for Correa makes me wish the Orioles extended Manny Machado at market rate earlier in his career.  

But then they wouldn't have been able to afford to bring Davis back.