2022 Orioles Prospects Power Rankings (Top 40)

[Tony-OH]

43 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Man, Nick Vespi continues to tumble despite giving up 1 run on the season so far (that was allowed after he was pulled from the game).

In fairness I've seen him pitch quite a bit and he's allowed some loud outs.  But he looks like a potential steady bullpen piece for years to come.  I was pretty bearish on him so that would be a welcome surprise.

He only dropped because of Vavra stayed healthy and performed well. I'd take a potential everyday guy (even if that's a super utility) over a lefty one inning reliever. I've been very impressed with Vespi so far, but he's still got a limited ceiling with his 89 MPH fastball. 

Right now he's getting guys out on plus horizontal movement. 

[Tony-OH]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Bold move for Gunnar, but I can see why. I would also be tempted to elevate Westburg above Hall. Hall has tremendous upside but at some point actual performance matters.

When did Denoyer get added? Great to see him on the list, and that is a good spot. 

Denoyer's stuff as taken a jump this year. 93-95, t 96 with a nice slider and workable change. He's been impressive.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Rutschman is the #1 overall pick and a great prospect, but let's remember, had Henderson gone to collegel, he would be getting drafted this year. 

If you take his current skill level, where do you think he would be drafted this year? I'd have to imagine he'd be inconsideration for the 1:1. 

So let's say he's drafted and they put him straight into AAA and he puts up the numbers he has. Now where would you rank him?

It's not a knock on Rutschman that I think Henderson now gets the nod as the #1 in my opinion, it's more based on how far Henderson has come in such a short time. Henderson hasn't even grown into his man strength yet.

 

I absolutely think Gunnar would be a 1:1 candidate if he’d gone to college and was in the draft pool now.  

I’m still getting my head around how much Gunnar has improved from last year to this one.  He was a solid second-50 prospect based on last year’s performance, and this year’s performance has been otherworldly.  Still, it’s only a bit less than three months.   He’s cooled off a bit the last 8 games or so (.749 OPS), so I want to see how he does over a longer stretch of AAA games.   It’s already amazing that he’s there before his 21st birthday and doing well.  But Adley and Grayson set a high bar and I just need a bit more time to judge whether he’s cleared it.  Of course, the real answer won’t be known for a year or two when we see how they’re performing where it really counts.  

I’m really high on Adley right now based on how he’s performed the last 2-3 weeks.  It’s fun seeing what all the hype was about, after a couple of weeks of temporary disappointment.  Looks like he’s only got another week before he’ll graduate from prospect status based on both the days of service and at bat criteria.  July 4 is his 45th day of service and he probably reaches 130 at bats on or about that day too (he’s at 106 now).

[waroriole]

What are you seeing in Braylon Tavera to move up to 14? Decent start in DSL, but only 44 ABs. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

What are you seeing in Braylon Tavera to move up to 14? Decent start in DSL, but only 44 ABs. 

Just the fact that he's got some serious upside and has done ok. Honestly, the guys behind him, especially the hitters, no one really jumps out as a sure fire starting pitcher or every day average big leaguer. 

I had Basallo and Hernandez pretty high last year but Hernandez is quickly playing himself into a bust unless he doesn't start hitting. Basallo is very young for his league so I'm holding on him a bit. 

Oh, and he really only jumped Basallo, John Rhodes and Carlos Tavera. Carlos Tavera had a bad outing and went on the IL, Rhodes hasn't hit for much game power, and Basallo hasn't done much in the FCL and his K% jumped up in the FCL. Basallo is only 6 months older than Tavera. 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

How high could you see ranking Kjerstad if he continues on a tear when he is promoted to Aberdeen?  Say he hits over .300 w/ a .900 OPS for the rest of the year w/ a cup of coffee in Bowie.

[RZNJ]

Nitpick time.  Love the order on the first 6-7 guys.   First nitpick.   I know it's only 3 weeks but I would have Kjerstad ahead of Cowser and Prieto at this time.   I like Prieto but just like Haskin, most of his allure was built on a one week/10 day power surge at Aberdeen.   Without the promise of power, he's not too exciting and we haven't seen much power since then.    

Tavera ahead of Rhodes?   Not yet for me.

 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Nitpick time.  Love the order on the first 6-7 guys.   First nitpick.   I know it's only 3 weeks but I would have Kjerstad ahead of Cowser and Prieto at this time.   I like Prieto but just like Haskin, most of his allure was built on a one week/10 day power surge at Aberdeen.   Without the promise of power, he's not too exciting and we haven't seen much power since then.    

Tavera ahead of Rhodes?   Not yet for me.

 

I could have jumped Kjerstad, but I want to give him some time. 

Obviously these are power rankings so I won't get into too much disagreements, but what do you like about Haskin so much?

Since his torrid 7-game start to the season where he hit like Barry Bonds on one his roidfest tears, he's slashed .213/.307/.328/.635 with a 16 to 42 BB:K ratio in his last 208 PAs. 

While Prieto has certainly come down from his tear in A+, you have to remember a few things. He hadn't played since the winter of 2020-21 and had only 105 High-A PAs before his quick promotion to AA compared to Haskin who had 363 PAs between Low and High-A before AA.

Tavera over Rhodes? Honestly, the problem here was you can't improve in the trainer's room and that's where Rhodes has been for a month and he really hasn't hit well since April. Tavera has more upside so i went with him but I'm being aggressive with Tavera a bit despite being in the DSL. 

Hopefully Rhodes will pick it back up a bit. So hard to judge hitters power in that cavernous Aberdeen Stadium. the orioles really need to get them to bring the fences in or think about changing back to Frederick if Frederick will upgrade their stadium. 

[RZNJ]

Tony, I think you misinterpreted my remarks.   I wasn't saying that I liked Haskins.   I was saying that you dismissed Haskins because he built a lot of his numbers on a very hot start and showed power for a week or two.   I made the point that you could say something similar about Prieto.   If not for a power surge for about a week down in Aberdeen his numbers are kind of empty.

[waroriole]

46 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Nitpick time.  Love the order on the first 6-7 guys.   First nitpick.   I know it's only 3 weeks but I would have Kjerstad ahead of Cowser and Prieto at this time.   I like Prieto but just like Haskin, most of his allure was built on a one week/10 day power surge at Aberdeen.   Without the promise of power, he's not too exciting and we haven't seen much power since then.    

Tavera ahead of Rhodes?   Not yet for me.

 

What has Kjerstad done to be ahead of Cowser? It’s not like he’s hitting for power. 

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, waroriole said:

What has Kjerstad done to be ahead of Cowser? It’s not like he’s hitting for power. 

It’s really apples and oranges at this point.  But Kjerstad has a .178 ISO compared to Cowser’s .153.   I can almost guarantee you that Kjerstad is going to have a much higher ISO than Cowser.  Meanwhile the guy Is hitting .422/.481/.600 after two years away from playing competitive baseball.   That’s pretty damned impressive.  

Saying all that, we’re talking about 54 PA for Kjerstad and he’s playing a level below where Cowser has been but is a year older.   All that is due to his medical setbacks but you still have to take it into account.  

I’d have Kjerstad below Cowser right now, but that easily could change in the next several weeks.  

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

What has Kjerstad done to be ahead of Cowser? It’s not like he’s hitting for power. 

He has 3 or 4 doubles and a homer.  It’s not like it’s all singles.  What Kjerstad is doing while getting the rust off is more impressive to me than what Cowser is doing almost one year into his career.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Tony, I think you misinterpreted my remarks.   I wasn't saying that I liked Haskins.   I was saying that you dismissed Haskins because he built a lot of his numbers on a very hot start and showed power for a week or two.   I made the point that you could say something similar about Prieto.   If not for a power surge for about a week down in Aberdeen his numbers are kind of empty.

But Prieto wasn't hot for a couple of weeks, he was hot basically the entire time in Aberdeen. He's clearly hit a bit of a bump in Bowie and that could drop him a bit if it continues, but I think he's done quite well with as little affiliated professional experience as he has. 

 

[LookinUp]

Yeah, power rankings are tricky because they're more of a mix of a point in time plus a prospect profile than just a prospect profile. 

I do think Haskin's stretch is different than Cowser, Prieto, Norby and Kjerstad. The latter four all show significantly more promise to me. Prieto would seem to be the lesser of them, but the fact that he changed levels and did have sustained success makes me less willing to jump to conclusions. I actually think all 4 are good prospects.

[LookinUp]

As an aside, I just noticed that Henderson is currently #1 above Rutschman and Rodriguez. I'm not sure I could put him above Rutschman considering what he's doing right now, but...I heard an interesting thing (second hand) from a well known former Orioles official who said that Henderson would end up better than Rutschman.

It was just two people talking, so take it for what it's worth, but it's pretty crazy how much of an impression he's made this year.