The LF wall tracker

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

You'd be pissed, too, if balls that would have gone over the wall in years prior are coming up short now.  That's not just a decrease in his stats, that's literal money off the table for him.

For argument's sake (and I'm exaggerating a bit here, but bear with me here) say the new LF configuration takes away 15 homes from Trey and he winds up with 15 total this year.  In years prior, he'd have had 30 homers, this year he has 15.

When he goes to negotiate a new salary with the Orioles or with another team, he can't say he's a 30 homer guy and demand to be paid like one.  And no one's going to care that the new LF configuration took away a lot of homers from him.  Too bad.  

Yeah, I'd be pissed about it, too.

I was going to post the same thing.  Not sure what the figure is, but it's gotta be something like a $250,000 hit per lost HR to his contract next year.  The man is playing for a contract and hammering the ball w/o much to show for it.  Sure, other GMs have the stadium info but there is no doubt those lost homers are impacting his finances.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I was going to post the same thing.  Not sure what the figure is, but it's gotta be something like a $250,000 hit per lost HR to his contract next year.  The man is playing for a contract and hammering the ball w/o much to show for it.  Sure, other GMs have the stadium info but there is no doubt those lost homers are impacting his finances.  

I think there is doubt.  I doubt.

Now if he was still in the Arbitration phase of his career...

Does he get a bonus for the All Star game?  Something like that maybe???

[emmett16]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think there is doubt.  I doubt.

Now if he was still in the Arbitration phase of his career...

Does he get a bonus for the All Star game?  Something like that maybe???

I think the optics of the counting stats still carry weight, especially when selling your player to GMs against other players available.  Any and all stats will be used by his agent to get him the best contract.   GMs on the other hand will be using any and all stats to try and get the best contract for their team.   If you had to choose between having 6 additional home runs or 6 very long well hit fly outs, would you simply choose the long fly outs and bank on the fact that the GMs don't care about counting stats?  I think I'd rather have the HR tally and then let the cards fall were they may.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, emmett16 said:

I think the optics of the counting stats still carry weight, especially when selling your player to GMs against other players available.  Any and all stats will be used by his agent to get him the best contract.   GMs on the other hand will be using any and all stats to try and get the best contract for their team.   If you had to choose between having 6 additional home runs or 6 very long well hit fly outs, would you simply choose the long fly outs and bank on the fact that the GMS don't care about counting stats?  I think I'd rather have the HR tally and then let the cards fall were they may.  

This makes no sense.

Where did I say that outs were preferred?  You could have at least made it an interesting thought exercise and come at me with something like would you rather have 6 additional HR and 4 additional strike outs or 10 fly ball outs that would have been homeruns in Cincinnati.

The teams have the data.  We are not in an age in which counting stats are used to determine free agent contracts. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If only teams has access to the same sort of data us fans have and could see how the wall is affecting his numbers.

 

I don't think a team is going to use that data if they're going to try to offer less salary.  But that's just me.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not 1978.  Trey and his agent can pull out the spray charts and the rest of the data and show a good estimate of the number of homers he'd have hit in any other park in the world.  He can show his context-adjusted production.  If any MLB team is offering contracts on the basis of non-park-adjusted HR totals I wouldn't want to play for them.

This is kind of the opposite of saying everyone who hits in Colorado gets a contract 50% bigger.  Clearly that doesn't happen.

Like I said, "Too bad."

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think a team is going to use that data if they're going to try to offer less salary.  But that's just me.

They are going to use the data.

They are going to try and frame the discussion on the most favorable terms possible, why wouldn't they?

Doesn't mean it will work. 

At the end of the day they are going to use projections of what he will do playing for their team in their stadium.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They are going to use the data.

They are going to try and frame the discussion on the most favorable terms possible, why wouldn't they?

Doesn't mean it will work. 

At the end of the day they are going to use projections of what he will do playing for their team in their stadium.

I think Mancini's team would use projections of what he'd do playing for their team in that stadium.  I don't think a team offering a contract is going to care much one way or another. 

There are no guarantees.  Just because the numbers said that he'd have hit more homers in 2022 in their stadium doesn't mean he'd do it going forward.  

All I know it'd be a lot easier for Mancini to hit 30 homers instead of his agent having to whip out those expected homer charts and have to explain why he didn't hit 30 homers and promising that it'd be different somewhere else.

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

This makes no sense.

Where did I say that outs were preferred?  You could have at least made it an interesting thought exercise and come at me with something like would you rather have 6 additional HR and 4 additional strike outs or 10 fly ball outs that would have been homeruns in Cincinnati.

The teams have the data.  We are not in an age in which counting stats are used to determine free agent contracts. 

 

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They are going to use the data.

They are going to try and frame the discussion on the most favorable terms possible, why wouldn't they?

Doesn't mean it will work. 

At the end of the day they are going to use projections of what he will do playing for their team in their stadium.

Seems to me like it makes sense.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 

Seems to me like it makes sense.  

I'm not sure what you are going with there?

The fact that both sides are going to present their cases in the most advantageous manner possible doesn't change the fact that the traditional counting stats aren't going to be used in the team's actual projection in what the player's value is.

 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure what you are going with there?

The fact that both sides are going to present their cases in the most advantageous manner possible doesn't change the fact that the traditional counting stats aren't going to be used in the team's actual projection in what the player's value is.

 

Which is why I started my comment with the line 'The Optics of....' It's a sales pitch, any and all data will be used to best represent the player.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Which is why I started my comment with the line 'The Optics of....' It's a sales pitch, any and all data will be used to best represent the player.   

I don't.

I think the team will try and mention it and will get nowhere.

The teams know the counting stats aren't actually useful, the agents know the counting stats are actually useful.

Obviously as a player Mancini would prefer Dongs to Near Dongs.  But it won't change his next contract unless his representation is incompetent.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think there is doubt.  I doubt.

Now if he was still in the Arbitration phase of his career...

Does he get a bonus for the All Star game?  Something like that maybe???

Bill James has written about helping put together arb cases for players in the 80s and they were using a lot more sophisticated data packages than is being suggested here in 2022. His agent would show a chart of all the homers he lost to the new wall and say "Hey, you moved it back, not me. It's all about the production. If you're docking Trey does Jordan Lyles get all the money you're shorting me?"

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

They are going to use the data.

They are going to try and frame the discussion on the most favorable terms possible, why wouldn't they?

Doesn't mean it will work. 

At the end of the day they are going to use projections of what he will do playing for their team in their stadium.

The arbitrator isn't a rube from 1950.  He sees data like this all the time.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't.

I think the team will try and mention it and will get nowhere.

The teams know the counting stats aren't actually useful, the agents know the counting stats are actually useful.

Obviously as a player Mancini would prefer Dongs to Near Dongs.  But it won't change his next contract unless his representation is incompetent.

 

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Bill James has written about helping put together arb cases for players in the 80s and they were using a lot more sophisticated data packages than is being suggested here in 2022. His agent would show a chart of all the homers he lost to the new wall and say "Hey, you moved it back, not me. It's all about the production. If you're docking Trey does Jordan Lyles get all the money you're shorting me?"

Fair enough.  I stand corrected.