Potential comp and 2nd rounder picks

[sportsfan8703]

If we take Druw Jones #1, i figure we’ll have to take college bats with our two comp picks and 2nd rd pick. Probably another bat heavy draft. I don’t see them changing things up now. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we take Druw Jones #1, i figure we’ll have to take college bats with our two comp picks and 2nd rd pick. Probably another bat heavy draft. I don’t see them changing things up now. 

[btdart20]

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/profiles/GA/Jonathan-Cannon-4857160932-0871394526

Here’s the quote that piqued my interest:  His main weapon was a sinker that averaged 93-94 and tickled 96. He lived down in the zone with the pitch that also showed above average run. It was explosive to his armside at times, diving under bats for empty swings. Its horizontal movement (17" average, 20" maximum) from a higher release point is more rare for a sinkerballer since a 6-foot release height typically produces more back spin than the side spin needed for sink. What is scary is that his sinker could add more depth by reducing the spin (current 2310 avg rpm). 

This quote made me a fan:  

He is the only 2022 draft-eligible prospect that appears on both the Heat Sheet and Control Artists.

[joelala]

14 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/profiles/GA/Jonathan-Cannon-4857160932-0871394526

Here’s the quote that piqued my interest:  His main weapon was a sinker that averaged 93-94 and tickled 96. He lived down in the zone with the pitch that also showed above average run. It was explosive to his armside at times, diving under bats for empty swings. Its horizontal movement (17" average, 20" maximum) from a higher release point is more rare for a sinkerballer since a 6-foot release height typically produces more back spin than the side spin needed for sink. What is scary is that his sinker could add more depth by reducing the spin (current 2310 avg rpm). 

This quote made me a fan:  

He is the only 2022 draft-eligible prospect that appears on both the Heat Sheet and Control Artists.

Very intriguing. Thanks for posting. 

[btdart20]

On 5/19/2022 at 8:17 AM, joelala said:

Very intriguing. Thanks for posting. 

Surely.  1.1 pick is important and hope we nail it.  But think there will be some top talent for the next 2 picks we have as well. Those could really reload the org depth from this year’s graduates!  Seems like the year to overslot/BPA the first few rounds of the talking heads are to be believed!  Lots of HS talent and maybe (hurt) college arms may be on the board still for our top 3-5 picks.

[sevastras]

Chase Shores- 6’8” 240 high school RHP. Sits 93-94 touches 98. Still a work in progress with delivery and secondary offerings but I trust this Os group more than the previous group to develop pitching. Even if he doesn’t stick as a starter, you could have a kid that size throwing 100+ as a reliever. Pretty scary especially when the ball starts 6” closer to the plate than your typical pitcher. 
 

Reggie Crawford- 6’3” 235 LHP/1B Connecticut. Sat 97 touched 100 but only pitched 7.2 innings striking out 17. Out for 2022 w/ TJ. Throws strikes and flashes a decent mid 80s slider. 
At 1B he hit for average and power. Very athletic. 

I would be looking at both of these kids in the second comp pick or round 2. 

[RZNJ]

The only problem is that the Orioles haven't made one draft pick you'd call "high risk" high up in the draft or anywhere in the draft for that matter.   I mentioned Reggie Crawford myself but it seems unlikely to me.

[btdart20]

Ivan Melendez... "The Hispanic Titanic"

Ivan Melendez College Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com

Prospectslive has him at 126 (4/5th rounder), I have to think he's improved his draft status this year since it's very likely he wins the NCAA player of the year award.  (If you're an anti-bat-flipper, then he's not your guy!)

2022 MLB Draft - Top 500 Prospects — Prospects Live

His 25+% K% in 2021 is concerning.  But his K% in 2022 is 15%.  Leads all of NCAA in SLG with a .941 (#2 is .867).  Focusing on the Big 12, his OPS sits at 1.472 (Jace Jung is #2 with a 1.152).  Feels 

Texas Slugger Ivan Melendez Evaluates Himself Ahead Of 2021 MLB Draft (baseballamerica.com)

From last year's College World Series...

 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, sevastras said:

Chase Shores- 6’8” 240 high school RHP. Sits 93-94 touches 98. Still a work in progress with delivery and secondary offerings but I trust this Os group more than the previous group to develop pitching. Even if he doesn’t stick as a starter, you could have a kid that size throwing 100+ as a reliever. Pretty scary especially when the ball starts 6” closer to the plate than your typical pitcher. 
 

Reggie Crawford- 6’3” 235 LHP/1B Connecticut. Sat 97 touched 100 but only pitched 7.2 innings striking out 17. Out for 2022 w/ TJ. Throws strikes and flashes a decent mid 80s slider. 
At 1B he hit for average and power. Very athletic. 

I would be looking at both of these kids in the second comp pick or round 2. 

Just read that Shores added 15 MPH on his FB over the last couple of years.  

The recent trend for the O's is to take a guy who has something special, whatever that is.  And build a development plan around that.  I do think they use a few of the top 5 picks to take an arm or two and add some risk to the draft portfolio.

[OriolesMagic83]

At some point the O's have to take some arms.  Starting pitching is think in the O's farm system.  The O's are counting on all the top prospects making the transition to the majors.  Probably still need a couple major league starters with injuries, etc.  I would like to see the O's grab one of the injured college starters or just a college starter that strikes what they are looking for.  I can't see this team paying for more than 1 free agent starting pitcher. 

[btdart20]

Top Baseball Draft Prospects | MLB.com

10 arms out of 15 players currently ranked in the 30-45 range (plus the next 7 are arms too).  So, there should be plenty of options with the #33 and/or #42 picks.

 

Tristan Smith -  Compares to former Orioles first round pick and PG All-American D.L. Hall. 

Tristan Smith Class of 2022 - Player Profile | Perfect Game USA

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 4/26/2022 at 3:35 PM, CharmCityHokie said:

I'll be absolutely shocked if Rocker goes that high. He hasn't thrown (at least to anyone's knowledge or witness) in almost a year. I know '22 Draft is thin on top end pitching but that would be a seriously risky pick. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I frankly will be surprised if he goes Round 1 at all. 

Whoever did that mock must work for Rocker Late first round-early second best case.

[Just Regular]

ESPN Kiley McDaniel put out a new mock this morning, guessing Jones and also with a basket of specific names for subsequent choices.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34013502/2022-mlb-mock-draft-10-kiley-mcdaniel-projects-first-round

In terms of later picks, the O's have a clear type: toolsy (mostly college) position players with upside traits, like plus bat speed and playing an up-the-middle position, but not necessarily as polished as other players picked around them. They tried to pay Florida CF Jud Fabian $3 million last year (but couldn't get him to their pick; the Red Sox took him and he didn't sign) and might try again this year. Others who fit the type and could be overpay options for their couple picks include Arizona prep CF Gavin Turley, Oregon State CF Jacob Melton, Vanderbilt RF Spencer Jones, Oklahoma SS Peyton Graham and Illinois State CF Ryan Cermak. I could also see a high-upside, tough-to-sign high school pitcher, and Illinois preps LHP Noah Schultz and RHP Owen Murphy seem like the Orioles' type.

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

ESPN Kiley McDaniel put out a new mock this morning, guessing Jones and also with a basket of specific names for subsequent choices.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34013502/2022-mlb-mock-draft-10-kiley-mcdaniel-projects-first-round

In terms of later picks, the O's have a clear type: toolsy (mostly college) position players with upside traits, like plus bat speed and playing an up-the-middle position, but not necessarily as polished as other players picked around them. They tried to pay Florida CF Jud Fabian $3 million last year (but couldn't get him to their pick; the Red Sox took him and he didn't sign) and might try again this year. Others who fit the type and could be overpay options for their couple picks include Arizona prep CF Gavin Turley, Oregon State CF Jacob Melton, Vanderbilt RF Spencer Jones, Oklahoma SS Peyton Graham and Illinois State CF Ryan Cermak. I could also see a high-upside, tough-to-sign high school pitcher, and Illinois preps LHP Noah Schultz and RHP Owen Murphy seem like the Orioles' type.

The Cowser pick would look much better if we were able to have taken Cowser and Fabian, but sacrificed Norby and Crees Willems. That’s the risk with the overslot strategy, you have to find someone willing to take your money. I’m guessing Creed Willems wasn’t at the top of our list.  

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Cowser pick would look much better if we were able to have taken Cowser and Fabian, but sacrificed Norby and Crees Willems. That’s the risk with the overslot strategy, you have to find someone willing to take your money. I’m guessing Creed Willems wasn’t at the top of our list.  

I have few counterpoints.  1. Drafting Fabian over Norby would only look better if Fabian performs.  He's toolsy but who knows.  2.  It's seems as though Creed Willems was quite possibly Plan A even if Fabian was picked.  The Orioles had Willems in for a private pre-draft workout so it's not like they randomly picked some kid to throw money at.  

3. Maybe John Rhodes was plan B and they wouldn't have gone overslot on him if the had gotten Fabian.

4. My belief still is that the overslot strategy has been employed by Elias when they simply don't agree with the consensus.  I honestly don't believe they have passed on a player they liked significantly better so they could save on the slot to use later.