Gunnar Henderson 2022

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Yea .275 is a high BA these days.

Could it be due to many players sacrificing contact for power in a TTO sort of way?   

2 hours ago, deward said:

.275 with 25 HR seems a little conservative to me

I honestly thought that too initially.  But then I did consider how others are faring this year as well.  But landed on that's it's a fair bar to set while my hope is higher.  Though I do agree with @ChuckS that if it comes with a .375-.400 OBP, then it takes 'average/above average' to another level.  I'm with you in that I'm greedy with my expectations!

[btdart20]

The bar is bumping the low man out of the line-up.  .275/25 HR is an improvement over at least 5-6 players pretty easily.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

The bar is bumping the low man out of the line-up.  .275/25 HR is an improvement over at least 5-6 players pretty easily.

I think folks are underselling 275/25 with above average defense at third or average defense at short.  He should also add value on the basepaths.

[btdart20]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are underselling 275/25 with above average defense at third or average defense at short.  He should also add value on the basepaths.

Agreed.  I think I have a bent toward fantasy numbers and norms from a few years ago...  "It's not you, it's me."  My gut reaction was down on the .275/25, but then I though that's basically Cal's season average.  If it brings a .375-400 OBP, then we're looking at an easy .800+ OPS guy.  

 

(I still think his peak 7-10 year will be better!)

[OriolesMagic83]

.275 would lead the O's in average now among qualified batters.

[OriolesMagic83]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  I think I have a bent toward fantasy numbers and norms from a few years ago...  "It's not you, it's me."  My gut reaction was down on the .275/25, but then I though that's basically Cal's season average.  If it brings a .375-400 OBP, then we're looking at an easy .800+ OPS guy.  

 

(I still think his peak 7-10 year will be better!)

Even .350 OBP would be a huge upgrade.  The O's lineup is full of guys who are basically at .300 OBP or below.  Glad that Elias has placed such an emphasis on OBP on the farm system.  Unfortunately those results have been slow to transfer to the majors.  There seems to be limited ability to "teach" major league players to improve their OBP.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are underselling 275/25 with above average defense at third or average defense at short.  He should also add value on the basepaths.

Those are good numbers but they aren’t superstar level numbers and if you are the best prospect in the sport and have been dominant at young ages in the upper minors, you are looked at as a special player who can and should put up elite, MVP level seasons. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Those are good numbers but they aren’t superstar level numbers and if you are the best prospect in the sport and have been dominant at young ages in the upper minors, you are looked at as a special player who can and should put up elite, MVP level seasons. 

Folks should endeavor to have realistic expectations.

[Il BuonO]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks should endeavor to have realistic expectations.

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Those are good numbers but they aren’t superstar level numbers and if you are the best prospect in the sport and have been dominant at young ages in the upper minors, you are looked at as a special player who can and should put up elite, MVP level seasons. 

I’d gladly take those numbers along with plus defense at 3B.   

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks should endeavor to have realistic expectations.

It’s not realistic to think the best prospect in the sport can put up MVP level numbers?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not realistic to think the best prospect in the sport can put up MVP level numbers?

It's not realistic to expect it.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's not realistic to expect it.

Well, I sort of disagree.  It depends on when you are expecting it. 

[Just Regular]

Adley's 162 Game Avg has fallen off to 6.7 WAR, probably out of the first tier of MVP candidates, but good enough for the mix some years.   Also pacing for .246 AVG, 14 HR and 52 RBI's.

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not realistic to think the best prospect in the sport can put up MVP level numbers?

 

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's not realistic to expect it.

It’s not like Gunnar is the consensus no. 1, either.  For example, Eric Longenhagen has him at no. 5.   Regardless, we all know he’s a very good prospect.  Bregman?