Are the O's turning a corner?

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.

I can't blame Spenser Watkins for taking MLB paychecks anymore than I think B-Ref showing Hyde in the Bottom 25 all-time vs. 500 is much about him.    Some of getting actually good for 2023 and beyond will be improving depth and floor so that if another of our Shane Baz-John Means types need elbow surgery waaay below replacement level performers don't automatically become front-line mainstays.   

Also probably not advisable to try a game with a de facto bench of one Anthony Bemboom.

Don't forget Owings!  O's opponents must struggle to keep from laughing when the O's have pinch hitting opportunities.

[sportsfan8703]

Hard to turn the corner with the 5-9 in the lineup we’re trotting out there. Calling up AR, getting Urias on track, and Mountcastle healing, should help a lot. We still have a black hole at 3B. 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hard to turn the corner with the 5-9 in the lineup we’re trotting out there. Calling up AR, getting Urias on track, and Mountcastle healing, should help a lot. We still have a black hole at 3B. 

The 3B thing irks me because it's really Odor that put us in this spot. Urias is playing out of position at 3B. Gutierrez wasn't getting play time, but he's still intriguing to me. So instead of Guti, we turned to Nevin, who has looked okay but I'm not sure his bat is any better than Guti's at the end of the day. 

All this just because we felt we needed a left-handed bat in the lineup in Odor? It's just kind of bizarre. Certainly finding a decent RH 3B would have been a net positive over having the weak-hitting lefty in your lineup. 

But ultimately, we're just killing time until Henderson. 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, interloper said:

The 3B thing irks me because it's really Odor that put us in this spot. 

Elias put us in this spot by making Odor our top IF acquisition this winter.  I’m not blaming Odor for it - he is what he is.   

At least Mateo is getting a full opportunity and doing something with it.   Others have had their opportunities and have not made the most of them.   
 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Elias put us in this spot by making Odor our top IF acquisition this winter.  I’m not blaming Odor for it - he is what he is.   

At least Mateo is getting a full opportunity and doing something with it.   Others have had their opportunities and have not made the most of them.   
 

100%, that's really what I meant by that. I never liked the move and thought we should have targeted 3B more directly. Instead, we are settling for these indirect solutions like Urias or Nevin. Or Gutierrez gets cut because he's a misfit on the bench, which is fine, but why have him on the team in the first place if your plan was to play Urias there? 

[EdwinRip]

We could have traded for Paul Dejong! Oh wait, he’s in AAA.

[Just Regular]

50 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

We could have traded for Paul Dejong! Oh wait, he’s in AAA.

Xander Bogaerts might be available this summer*.   I wonder if it will take more than Yusniel Diaz and Dean Kremer to get him.

At its most fanciful, if Adley-Grayson-Hall do Hurt Your Feelings** things to the American League the next two months, remind me again what Atlanta gave up for an entire outfield last summer.

*Actual expectation is we are still trading Trey Mancini for not too much that month, and hoo boy will it be fun on here when that happens if the young Orioles are doing okay not great.

**temporary ID Kyle Bradish

[spiritof66]

I'm not sure I understand this stuff about flipping a switch or turning a corner.

I've long thought, and still do, that building a crummy team into a contender typically is a gradual process. You acquire as much young talent as you can from every available source -- the amateur draft, international free agent signings, posted foreign players, trades, other teams' rejects. You get the guys who appear to have big-league talent up to that level as soon as they're ready, stay patient with that talent, and bring in established major leaguers to play alongside them. If you succeed, the team's talent level will improve slowly, and so will its record. Sometimes lightning strikes -- in the form of a couple or three guys blossoming into stars at once, an outstanding record in close games,  unexpectedly bad performances by (and/or key injuries to) opponents, that kind of thing -- and a team rises from crappiness to contention quickly. But that's the exception and usually is a surprise, except maybe to those who say, after the fact, that they saw it coming. I believe those exceptions depend, in part, on favorable occurrences that you can hope for, but can't really plan on or expect.

Elias apparently has a different game plan for making the Orioles a contender. As I understand it, he's trying to develop team-controlled talent, bring that talent to the Orioles in as compressed a time period as he can, see who succeeds at the major-league level, and when that's apparent acquire players through trades and free agent signings to add to the homegrown talent. I hope the plan works, and I hope the team's owners will agree to add substantially to the payroll. But I'm not too confident about either.

So far, the only advantages I see to his plan are (a) early drafting choices, an reward for fielding lousy teams that's about to be reduced, (b) saving the owners many tens of millions of dollars, and keeping the team profitable despite dwindling gate receipts, by lowering the payroll to absurd levels, and (c) deferring the time when the success of the rebuild can be judged. Meanwhile, we get to watch season after season of really bad baseball and hear Elias, as the team's only spokesperson, say he doesn't much care how bad the current Orioles are.

I recognize that I'm just a spectator. I've never had the responsibility of building a contending team. Then again, neither has Elias.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, EdwinRip said:

We could have traded for Paul Dejong! Oh wait, he’s in AAA.

We still should 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

Sometimes lightning strikes -- in the form of a couple or three guys blossoming into stars at once, an outstanding record in close games,  unexpectedly bad performances by (and/or key injuries to) opponents, that kind of thing -- and a team rises from crappiness to contention quickly. But that's the exception and usually is a surprise, except maybe to those who say, after the fact, that they saw it coming. I believe those exceptions depend, in part, on favorable occurrences that you can hope for, but can't really plan on or expect.

I think sudden large improvements happen more frequently than you suggest.   I’m not saying that’s the way it happens most of the time, but it’s not exactly rare, either.  Just going back to 2010: 

2011 DBacks +29 to 94

2012A’s +20 to 94

2012 Orioles +24 to 93

2013 Red Sox +28 to 97

2013 Indians +24 to 92

2014 Angels +20 to 98

2015 Cubs +24 to 97

2017 DBacks +24 to 93

2018 A’s +22 to 97

2019 Twins +23 to 101

So, all these were cases of a 20+ game improvement leading to 90+ wins.   There are several other examples of 20-game improvements to less than 90 wins, or 15-19 game improvements to 90+ wins.   Also, there’s a couple of cases where the pandemic-shortened season interrupted a possible 20+ game improvement to 90+ wins.

Beyond all that, I don’t think Elias is envisioning a jump from 50ish or even 70ish wins to contention all in one gulp.  I think he’s expecting a build-up over 2-3 years    

 

 

[NCRaven]

Certainly feels a lot better after a series win against StL.  Last night was bad, today much better.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Certainly feels a lot better after a series win against StL.  Last night was bad, today much better.

A series win against a good team in their home ballpark is always a good thing.   Nice job by the bullpen today filling out this game.  

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A series win against a good team in their home ballpark is always a good thing.   Nice job by the bullpen today filling out this game.  

With an assist from Mr. Mateo on offense and defense.

[oldfan]

Maybe close to .500 in 2024. If that happens, AR, GRod, Hall , Bradish and Henderson are all doing well. Mountcastle, Hays and Mullins are still here, solid group. Then it's time for ownership to step up.

[glenn__davis]

6 hours ago, oldfan said:

Maybe close to .500 in 2024. If that happens, AR, GRod, Hall , Bradish and Henderson are all doing well. Mountcastle, Hays and Mullins are still here, solid group. Then it's time for ownership to step up.

Maybe close to .500 in 2024?  That would mean it's been an unsuccessful rebuild.  If that's as far along as they are then it's time to find a new GM.