Are the O's turning a corner?

[Camden_yardbird]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think sudden large improvements happen more frequently than you suggest.   I’m not saying that’s the way it happens most of the time, but it’s not exactly rare, either.  Just going back to 2010: 

2011 DBacks +29 to 94

2012A’s +20 to 94

2012 Orioles +24 to 93

2013 Red Sox +28 to 97

2013 Indians +24 to 92

2014 Angels +20 to 98

2015 Cubs +24 to 97

2017 DBacks +24 to 93

2018 A’s +22 to 97

2019 Twins +23 to 101

So, all these were cases of a 20+ game improvement leading to 90+ wins.   There are several other examples of 20-game improvements to less than 90 wins, or 15-19 game improvements to 90+ wins.   Also, there’s a couple of cases where the pandemic-shortened season interrupted a possible 20+ game improvement to 90+ wins.

Beyond all that, I don’t think Elias is envisioning a jump from 50ish or even 70ish wins to contention all in one gulp.  I think he’s expecting a build-up over 2-3 years    

 

 

Okay, now take all those teams and overlay their previous off season's free agent spending...

[foxfield]

50 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Maybe close to .500 in 2024?  That would mean it's been an unsuccessful rebuild.  If that's as far along as they are then it's time to find a new GM.

Well, O's won 52 last year, which means they need 2 straight seasons of 15+ win improvement.  15 this year gets us to 67...15 more to 82.  

I think its possible to do better, but that is a sizable gain in two years.  Take heart however.  With the series win in St. Louis, the O's are now at .438 which is a pace to end at 71 wins.  That would be a gain of 19 and would make 82 seem much more reachable in '23.  

But there is a long way to go.  The best news is that this team has been competitive nearly every night.  And the energy seems to be building like it did for the team in '11.  I still see this as more of getting off the floor and starting the climb more than turning the corner.

Let's enjoy this competitive streak for what it is...a refreshing change and lets stay focused on being competitive in as many games as possible in '22.  If we win 60 games we probably need a whole lot of help to have a winning year in '23.  If we win 75...well this place will be clamoring for Trevor Bauer as all we need to win it all.

I'm hanging on for the ride.  This is what we have been waiting for...this is what we endured a total rebuild for...it's a baby step, but there is long way to go.  Aint the beer cold! (well maybe not at 8am)

 

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Okay, now take all those teams and overlay their previous off season's free agent spending...

Seriously?  Look at the list of teams.  Only the Red Sox and Cubs have any history of big spending…. Probably a batch of rookies or injuries had a greater impact.

2011 Dbacks - JJ Putz Russell Branyan Wily Mo Peña…

2012 As - Jeff Fiorentino Manny Ramirez (age 40) BartoloColon (39)

2012 Os - The list is long but laughable - Galarraga, Dontrelle Willis

2013 Red Sox - David Ross, Victorino, Uehara, Dempster, Drew, Napoli

2013 Indians - Mark Reynolds, Nick Swisher, Rich Hill, Giambi (42), Michael Bourn

2014 Angels - Volstad, LeBlanc, Joe Smith, Ibanez (42), Carlos Peña, John McDonald

2015 Cubs - Jason Hammel, Lester, Motte, David Ross

2017 Dbacks - Jeff Mathis, Rodney, Iannetta, Hank Conger, Brian Marist, Kevin Jepsen, Jorge de la Rosa

2018 As - Yusmeiro Petit, Lucroy, Cahill, Brett Anderson

2019 Twins - Schoop, Ronald Torreyes, Cruz, Blake Parker, Martin Perez, Martin Gonzalez, Adam Rosales

I didn’t look to see how successful the signings were.  But Lester and Cruz look like the headliners.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

Maybe close to .500 in 2024?  That would mean it's been an unsuccessful rebuild.  If that's as far along as they are then it's time to find a new GM.

As usual, GD gets it.  They better be legitimate contenders in 2024.

[Orioles0615]

8 hours ago, oldfan said:

Maybe close to .500 in 2024. If that happens, AR, GRod, Hall , Bradish and Henderson are all doing well. Mountcastle, Hays and Mullins are still here, solid group. Then it's time for ownership to step up.

2024? No Elias should be fired if they arent trying to win/get to .500 next year

[Orioles0615]

23 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hard to turn the corner with the 5-9 in the lineup we’re trotting out there. Calling up AR, getting Urias on track, and Mountcastle healing, should help a lot. We still have a black hole at 3B. 

Trade for Devers? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Orioles0615 said:

2024? No Elias should be fired if they arent trying to win/get to .500 next year

We don't know what ownership goals are.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, oldfan said:

Maybe close to .500 in 2024. If that happens, AR, GRod, Hall , Bradish and Henderson are all doing well. Mountcastle, Hays and Mullins are still here, solid group. Then it's time for ownership to step up.

I think you're off by a year.  This is the year they need to be getting in the 65+ win range.  Then 2023 should be close to .500.  Things will have to go pretty wrong for them to still be shooting for 78 wins in 2024.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think you're off by a year.  This is the year they need to be getting in the 65+ win range.  Then 2023 should be close to .500.  Things will have to go pretty wrong for them to still be shooting for 78 wins in 2024.

We will just have to see the trajectory.   I don’t think Elias’ job will be in jeopardy while the trajectory is appreciably upward, regardless of whether it take 2 years or three to reach contention.   If things stagnate, that’s a different story.   

[spiritof66]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think sudden large improvements happen more frequently than you suggest.   I’m not saying that’s the way it happens most of the time, but it’s not exactly rare, either.  Just going back to 2010: 

2011 DBacks +29 to 94

2012A’s +20 to 94

2012 Orioles +24 to 93

2013 Red Sox +28 to 97

2013 Indians +24 to 92

2014 Angels +20 to 98

2015 Cubs +24 to 97

2017 DBacks +24 to 93

2018 A’s +22 to 97

2019 Twins +23 to 101

So, all these were cases of a 20+ game improvement leading to 90+ wins.   There are several other examples of 20-game improvements to less than 90 wins, or 15-19 game improvements to 90+ wins.   Also, there’s a couple of cases where the pandemic-shortened season interrupted a possible 20+ game improvement to 90+ wins.

Beyond all that, I don’t think Elias is envisioning a jump from 50ish or even 70ish wins to contention all in one gulp.  I think he’s expecting a build-up over 2-3 years    

Thanks for the follow-up, or criticism, or whatever. There are more teams on this list than I would have expected, and when I get a chance I'll take a look at some or all of them.

Two immediate thoughts. When I referred to the difficulty of teams improving dramatically, I was thinking of teams that are doing something like what the Orioles say they're doing and will continue to do: rebuilding primarily by acquiring and developing young talent, testing them at the big-league level over a short period, and surrounding the keepers with veterans (but not the top, most expensive free agents). If a team improves rapidly by turning over much of its team, signing free agents and acquiring other veterans by trades (including rentals of free-agents-to-be), that could lead to a dramatic improvement, but iI don't think it would be relevant to the Orioles' situation.

Second, and I didn't think this through clearly, teams that improve in ways the Orioles aim to mimic often don't do that in a straight line. Key players often perform, in a given season, much better or worse than projected. Players don't all gain value in a straight line until they peak at 28 or 29, then decline in a neat bell curve. They have ups and downs, some of them dramatic. They get hurt. For some of the teams you listed, it might be more instructive to look at a cluster of seasons to get an idea of the paths they took from mediocrity to contention. I've done a little of that for the Cleveland Whitecaps (as I would have re-named them were it up to me, or if not that Blue Sox). They were a bad team in 2009-10. Their season victory totals beginning in '09 look like this: 65, 69, 80, 68, 92 (wild card), 85, 81 and then four straight years of 91 or more wins, with three division titles, in 2016-18. They seem to have improved gradually, with a significant negative departure from a straight-line path in 2012, followed by a big positive departure in 2013 and a smaller setback in 2015.

I'm never sure about the details, especially the timing, of Elias's plan, but it certainly sounds like he's aiming to build a multiyear contender like the Astros or the 2016-18 Indians, rather than a one-year wild card burst like the 2013 Indians. Without doing a deep dive on what happened in Cleveland (other than to note that Ubaldo Jimenez in 2013 had his best season since his early Colorado days, making him an attractive free agent to at least one pitching-hungry team), I'd say Cleveland went from being a weak team to near .500 in a few years and to being really good over about seven years. Again, I haven't looked at the details, but that looks like a pattern of incremental improvement over six or seven years that I would view -- again, just my sense, without having studied it--as a "normal" time for progressing from a bad team to a multi-year competitor (though I'd be shocked to see the Orioles win three straight division titles without significant realignment.) 

By the way, I've never paid much attention to what executives of bad teams say about how and when their teams are going to improve. Maybe what Elias is selling is nothing out of the ordinary. But to me it's pretty amazing that the guy who's taken over a really weak team, and says he's going to do a thorough and all-around great job of rebuilding it, won't tell us when we should expect to see the plan come to fruition and adds that the lousy performance we've been seeing for a few years doesn't much matter to him. That's good for ownership and good for Elias. I hope it's good for the rest of us, too.

  

[Aristotelian]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think sudden large improvements happen more frequently than you suggest.   I’m not saying that’s the way it happens most of the time, but it’s not exactly rare, either.  

I was shocked to see the D-backs are currently two games over .500 after losing 110 last year. 

[PHRESH]

On 5/6/2022 at 9:20 AM, Tony-OH said:

Yes, the wildcard jinx thread twhen the teams wins a few games. Pretty sure the Orioles are going to lose 8 straight now. lol

That's 1.

[Going Underground]

17 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I was shocked to see the D-backs are currently two games over .500 after losing 110 last year. 

Three games over now but a long way to go 

[sportsfan8703]

On 5/13/2022 at 8:57 AM, Can_of_corn said:

We don't know what ownership goals are.

Nashville sadly. 

[Oriole1940]

I would say we will know when the team is turning the corner when they obtain much more talent, by whatever means possible.  Until then it is wishful thinking.